## famous people from”(half)broken”families

  • eg: my dad .. lost his father at 14, before he joined the army. His mom also left.
  • eg: LKY grew distant from his dad, according to a [[Times]] obituary

— eg: Steve jobs, soon after birth, was given up (for adoption) by his parents.

(Note Jobs’s “broken family” story is well-covered, easy to blog!)

Job’s biographer Isaacson makes it clear that even though Jobs always knew he was adopted, he considered his adoptive parents to be his real parents. Because they’d chosen to give him a home while his birth parents gave him away, Jobs grew up feeling both abandoned and special.

Studies have revealed that children heal from the separation better when their parents tell the story of their adoption. While Steve Jobs’s adoption was closed —  each couple would never know one another, so the child had no contact with or information about his biological parents—Isaacson says that Paul and Clara Jobs emphasized to him that they chose to be his parents.

Jobs declined an invitation to meet his biological father but warmly embraced the opportunity to meet his biological mother.

12x monthly expense: non-contingency reserve #MAPIC

 


See also

Note this post is Not about contingency reserve (see other blogpost.)

Context — in https://tanbinvest.dreamhosters.com/24246/make-your-money-work-hard4u/, some investment advisors (such as Claris of HSBC) seem to suggest that having more than “12x” is non-optimal. However, as of Dec 2021, I am unconvinced. 12 x 6k would be a paltry 70k. With such a small idle cash reserve,

  • I couldn’t take advantage of the $2k bonus from SCB
  • I couldn’t consider any premium financing deals
  • I may not be able to sink 15k into SRS to optimize/reduce my income tax. 15k reduction in cash reserve is probably too big when I find myself in a (minor) cash crunch.
  • The downpayment of a new home (hypothetically) 5 months down the road would amount to 200k and require an expensive bridge loan, unless we have lot of cpfOa. There is also up to 60k of other costs
  • ^^ mostly investment opportunities to be lost

I have other blogposts on “too much SGD”. Now I think 300k is fine. I told YC that I want to keep 100k under my name, and another 100k under wife’s name.

YC said the standard advice on contingency planning is “6M worth of expenses”, excluding big-ticket purchases. Contingency is about livelihood needs, and therefore a multiple of expense, not a multiple of income.

Conclusion — for contingency reserve, a multiple of monthly burn rate is appropriate. For investment cashflow, this multiple is useless. Instead, I prefer a dollar amount.

— 100k + 100k for rEstate deal
For MAPIC Aus/UK properties, I promised wife I would keep 100k under wife’s name, and 100k under my name in case the deal becomes a crying baby [need more blood transfusion]. (Someone like P.L may not need this kind of buffer, but only because he is an experienced risk taker, and knows better about what risk he is taking.)

For SgCP, I think she would agree to let me use part of her 100k, but look at the paradox in divStock ^ investmentProperty: would I invest 300k.

MOETF is bite-sized. The 100k Cambodia quantums are also manageable. In contrast, another unit in 2022+ would be too big to chew. My net LIR exposure is already very big. Some (ambitious) Singaporeans don’t worry about “too much to chew” and don’t mind the big quantum … Bad influence!

39%Americans have enough savings for $1k emergency

As of 2019, the typical Black or Hispanic family has up to $2,000 in liquid savings, the typical White family has more than four times that amount.


https://www.bankrate.com/banking/savings/financial-security-0118/  is a 2018 article, quoted in CNBC. ( https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/19/56percent-of-americans-cant-cover-a-1000-emergency-expense-with-savings.html is a 2022 update) Bankrate.com conducts numerous surveys every year. I decide to believe in this survey. The question posed:

Q: How would you deal with a major expected expense, such as $1000 for an emergency room visit or car repair? Each respondent can only choose one option below

  • 39% would pay the whole bill from savings…. Personally, I think some of the other 61% may have $1k savings but somehow would not fork out this amount, so they chose other options
  • 19% would pay with a credit card … (high interest) and finance the balance over time
  • 12% would borrow from family or friends
  • 5% would use a personal loan.
  • 13% would count on reducing spending from other parts of their budget. I believe this option means “use some combination of the above, without increasing aggregate debt level”
  • 6% would resort to something else and 6% simply don’t know or refused

Lower wage earners, those making less than $30,000 a year, were twice as likely to use some form of borrowing than savings, while households making more than $50,000 were more apt to use cash.

This result dovetails with a recent Federal Reserve report that found 44 percent of Americans couldn’t cover a $400 emergency expense out of their pocket.

19% of Americans also report that they have $0 set aside to cover an unexpected financial emergency, according to another survey.

— an exemplary saver featured at the end of the article:
Timothy Wiedman had around $25,000 in his emergency fund in September 2016 when he slipped on wet grass in poor visibility, and ended up in the hospital. The recently retired Doane University associate professor shelled out around $1,700. He was able to cover the hospital bills out of savings rather easily. Amassing such a large cache (25k) is no easy feat, especially as health care and college costs rise dramatically.

Personally, I will be targeting a similar amount of liquid cash reserve.

— Now I have more appreciation that large portions of the American families can’t afford the expensive colleges, even though colleges provide financial aid to ensure every admitted student can afford it. Many of the struggling families would not be able to support their kids adequately during the 12 years before college

Luxury education, big homes are priced out of reach for more than half the population.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/12/08/the-black-white-wealth-gap-left-black-households-more-vulnerable/

Average value of liquid assets among white households was $8,100 in 2019 compared to $1,500 for Black households. (Does the negative data points go into the “average”?)

Furthermore, 72 percent of white households say they could get $3,000 from family or friends compared to 41 percent of Black households.

[17] age45nonwork income^contingency reserve#too low

2021 Update: I now target a contingency reserve of $100k [including wife’s visible balance], based on burn rate and risk level.

in 2017, Partha pointed out that for pre-retirement planning (starting now), we need

  1. to prepare reliable nonwork income to continue flowing even when we are out of work permanently. This NNIA would be small at my age. I think it’s rare to see a guy my age receiving $5k consistent nonwork income.
  2. contingency reserve, if I’m forced out of work unexpectedly.

Partha felt I may have set up lots of passive income (the #1) but most of these don’t meet the contingency needs (the #2). Contingency reserve exact requirement depends on bare-bones burn rate during bench time.

Right after paying off the 3 overseas properties (TheBridge + BGC), my contingency reserve would drop to a dangerous level. In retrospect,

  1. indeed my U.S. contingency reserve dropped to USD 4k after TheBridge payment
  2. the BGC TOP was delayed till 2019 so by then I had substantial contingency reserve, mostly in USD 123k.

Given my wife’s earning capacity and our health conditions, perhaps I over-allocated to passive income and neglected contingency reserve:

  • properties — could sell but need many months of lead time. Not a Contingency reserve
  • CPF Life — locked up tight 🙁 .. Not a reserve at all.
  • unit trusts, ETF… — fairly liquid. Could serve as contingency reserve if “above water”.
  • I feel the Beijing home could be sold before I retire.

[19]OC survey: 70%SGrn can’t last past6M if jobless

 


See also 39%Americans have enough savings for $1k emergency

Listening to the BBC Business Daily [[dealing with mass unemployment]], I now believe many people have really limited savings. This OCBC survey is another evidence. A real world example of “cashflow low ground”

Colin Lim believe this survey result. His stash is 12M worth of income.

On even higher ground, Raymond, Jack Z… can survive for years, due to burn rate discipline and high savings.

— Survey sample description:
OCBC bank surveyed 1,000 Singapore citizens and PR working adults between the ages of 21 and 65 across different age groups and income levels representative of the Singapore population. I feel the sample is small but unbiased. The percentage figures are possibly over-pessimistic due to question wording, as are similar surveys.

I suspect, perhaps, the wording might be something like “at your current burn rate, how long …”. Instead, if you ask people to imagine then estimate their bare-bones burn rate, then for most laymen the estimate would be less pessimistic but wholly unreliable, and therefore highly questionable in terms of survey methodology.

Note migrant workers, foreign maids, WorkPermit holders, and a lot of my colleagues are excluded because they are not PRs.

Note margin of error is quite high due to the sample size.

— OCBC official site: https://www.ocbc.com/group/media/release/2020/ocbc_surveys_1000_singaporeans_to_assess_financial_impact_of_covid_19.html

Many charts

— StraitsTimes https://www.straitstimes.com/business/banking/2-in-3-here-dont-have-savings-to-last-past-6-months-survey title says “2 in 3 here don’t have savings to last past 6 months

— TheNewPaper https://www.tnp.sg/news/singapore/many-singaporeans-dont-have-savings-last-beyond-6-months-survey

First paragraph says “… two-thirds of working Singaporeans and permanent residents indicated they did not have enough savings to last them beyond six months.”

https://mustsharenews.com/savings-job-ocbc/ title says “Majority Of S’poreans’ Savings Can Only Last Them 6 Months Without A Job”

There’s a histogram bar chart

contingency reserve requirement: US iwt SG

See also

— Living in the U.S. requires significantly higher contingency reserve as the government offers very limited support. Also wood houses and driving create more emergencies. See

39%Americans have enough savings4 $1k emergency endorses a Mr Tim with USD 25k emergency fund.