##pff complexities]old age

 


Q: in my old age [like grandma], would pff complexity become more challenging?
Q: will some mild complexity like [r] or [b] slow down brain aging?

I guess that after some practice, some micro-decisions can transition from sys2 to sys1.

If you feel too old or too busy, and don’t want these pff complexities, then you pay for advice from banks or financial advisors.
Rarely you get free advisory service (remember FSM and Phillip), unless during the sale process.

— pessimism without evidence?
Many old people in their 80s and 90s have a sound mind, good enough for pff decisions.

— Difference between RRrecreational complexity and BBburdensome complexity .. A vague concept
[b|B=mild or heavy burden, including due diligence ]
Fluid intelligence is more required in [B].

— [r] CIMB PF loan servicing .. monthly is less forgettable than annual

— [b] Giro failure prevention

— [r] asset: optimizing bonus interest from various banks + cashback from various ccards [BOC, FnF,,,] … zero risk, recreational juggling
[b] FBF and late fees … trivial burdensome complexity
[b] remember the different usernames across Sgp banks

— [B] asset: insurance premium annual payment
We could convert to monthly payments like CIMB. Easier to remember
[b] fire insurance details .. information-overload. Luckily price is low.
[b] Insurance benefit/exclusion fine prints … information-overload. Customer support needed, beyond online support as in China mobileApps.

— [r] asset: SG tBill using SRS or cash. You know government guarantees reliable hotline and record-keeping.
[b] If you use CPF, then you may need to compare the cpf interest sacrificed. You also need to pay quarterly bank fee for cpfIA

— [r] asset: SRS invested in S27 or tBill
There is some pff complexity as explained in https://tanbinvest.dreamhosters.com/16984/srs/, but I think it’s recreational complexity

S27 buying using SRS? I think we can slowly learn to treat it as RRecreational.

— [r] asset: FixD tracking/renewal .. I can see my parents managing it competently. Banks usually provide paper and electronic records to depositors.

Banks also provide branch and hotline support, much better than dotcom-style online-only support .
— [r] asset: picking stocks .. I think some retirees do that. Recreational
— [r] asset: ETF vs mufu .. I’m disillusioned with mufu, but consider the level of human service. ETF provides no customer support.

(at least in Singapore, banks earn a fee for selling mufu, therefore they provide a service to help customers buy and sell. Fund houses partner with many banks + insurers to market their mufu products and service their clients.

I think grandma was “experimenting” with mufu.

— asset: rental property … rental and tenant management. Busy landlords could engage an agent.

[r] I think some old landlord do it themselves. They like interacting with nice tenants. They often give long-term good tenants a steep discount, in return for lower complexity.

Minor repairs .. tenants + agent can hopefully take care.

— [b] U.S. tax filing .. Even though my 2023 income was $500+ and fully offset by deductions, I still had to go through all the filing questions and send my return…. otherwise I may face penalties.

— [B] Major repairs of home or property .. stressful complexity, but hopefully covered by rental income.

Like rental management, and unlike financial matters, we can outsource the back office legwork.

— [B] medical cost management … insurance claims; seeking subsidy

— [b|B] burn rate self-regulation .. For the average retiree, burn rate control is probably quite important. My $3k/M burn rate assumes a level of burn rate self-regulation but it could be demanding of fluid intelligence. If your fluid intelligence declines fast, then you might have a higher tendency to spend on the wrong things or make unwise purchase decisions. (Each buying decision is a small workload for sys2.) Look at grandparents.

I believe some retirees overspend, or worry about overspending.

[r] Micro-conserver mode can be fun rather than stressful. It could keep the aging mind active. It could give the older me a does of “control” — over myself, my life.

[r] exp recon … might be complex in some way, but very low risk.  Can be an enjoyable recreation– Q: does some of the complexities help keep the mind active?

%%take@6 levels@ffree #minimalist/tenuous

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrae/2019/04/09/levels-of-financial-freedom is the best among 5 articles I have read, all from the US perspective. There are many hints of “ffree as a state of mind” even if you choose to keep working for purpose, engagement,,,

Some may refer to my ffree as tenuous ffree / barebones ffree, fledgling ffree or minimalist ffree.

— Level 2 means “quit your job for a break, if not permanently”.  This level of freedom is … (extremely) valuable when you worry about bench time i.e. temporary job loss.
— Level 3 is valuable yet neglected. “immense sense of relief when you are earning enough to save, doing the things you enjoy and still having extra at the end of the month.” I think a majority of the audience (Americans and other nationalities) of this article experience real difficulty saving consistently. I achieved Level 3 long ago.
— Level 4 (time freedom) is the least appreciated level, important to me and many of my fellow busy dads. More time with family, more paid leave, flex time, shorter commute, WFH

— Level 5 basically means “downsize your current lifestyle to a basic/modest retirement”. It matches my bare-bones ffree. It also matches the crbr 3k/M plan.
This bizTime analysis of burn rate probably corresponds to below Level 5.

— Level 6 means “retire at the current lifestyle“. I feel for many of my U.S. peers, this is a huge gap above Level 5, unless your current burn rate happens to be modest, like mine. (Level 7 or above is irrelevant and unneeded .. unnecessary luxury)

  • Claim: you need to invest in stocks since young.
  • Observation: many countries’ public pension-like system pays you only a fraction of you “current” burn rate. My parents pensions are adequate.
  • My Rule #1: be realisitc about retiring in style (Level6), and don’t aim at current burn rate. Excluding healthcare and housing, aim at half the current burn rate.
  • My Rule #2: from young age, take up the legwork to find long-term solutions for old age housing and healthcare.

As to stock investment, I don’t know the reliability for the purpose of long-term cash payout. What if you buy at the peak, and need to wait 20Y for a recovery? If I give myself 30-40 years of accumulation, I think only U.S. stocks are able to clear that high bar.

======= original publication =====
When you read articles about financial freedom, you may hear people drone on and on about how they are spending practically nothing so they can retire at a younger age, like 30. Conversely, they may have already achieved financial freedom and are bragging about how frugal they were so they could retire well before the typical retirement age.

This is what I hear. Sell all your stuff, except for a tent, and move to the woods so you will never have to pay rent or utilities again. Joking aside, I actually come across a blog that promoted dumpster diving for food. No thank you! Realistically, most of us will not want to do the things required to retire at 30, 40 or 50. In fact, many people who are reading this likely are not saving enough to maintain their current standard of living during their golden years, if they retired at the age of 70. It pains me to report that about 21% of people have zero, zilch, nada saved for retirement, according to the Northwestern Mutual’s 2018 Planning & Progress Study.

Planning for retirement, or even financial freedom, is a marathon and not a sprint, as the saying goes. Breaking up your financial independence goals into small chunks can help keep you on track while making the process a bit more manageable and, hopefully, a little less stressful. Even if you are starting small, the important thing is to get started.

Here are the seven levels of financial freedom that you should work towards achieving.

— Level 1: Not Living Paycheck to Paycheck
The first level of financial freedom is building up an emergency fund. Ideally, this will include paying off any credit card debt as well.

Unfortunately, living paycheck to paycheck is the reality of millions of Americans. According to the Federal Reserve’s Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2017, some 40% of households could not cover a $400 unexpected expense. Most of us will have some unexpected bills pop up throughout the year such as car repairs, medical bills and nights out drinking with friends. Having an emergency fund will come in handy during those types of situations.

— Level 2: Enough Money to Quit your Job (for a bit)
Financial freedom is all about making work an option. Saving enough money to quit your job forever is a huge undertaking. Accumulating enough money to be able to take some time away from working is a big jump in that direction. This does not mean you have to quit your job, but it sure is a good feeling to know you can.

For extra credit you may want to save up for a sabbatical or extended vacation. I dream of spending a month, or two, in a foreign country each year. By no means will I be quitting my job, but it would take some planning in order to be away from my financial firm for that long.

In the shorter term, that extra money could also serve as your emergency fund. I mentioned that just in case some of you wanted some extra motivation to get to this level.

— Level 3: Enough to be Financially Happy and still Save
This is a bit more about enjoying your life and having the money to do it. There is an immense sense of relief when you are earning enough to save, doing the things you enjoy and still having extra at the end of the month.

That extra cushion can be used to move up your financial freedom date. That of course assumes you avoid increasing your lifestyle and spending it.

— Level 4: Freedom of Time
What many people desire is more flexibility with their schedules. Freedom of time and financial independence go hand in hand. Together, they are about leaving the rat race to follow your passion, or spend more time with family, and not going completely broke doing it. It could come in the form of more paid time off, flex time or perhaps working remotely on occasion. Not having to take a day off from work just so you can visit the dentist or take your kid to the doctor could be a huge benefit for some.

— Level 5: Enough for a Basic Retirement
Do you know anyone who hates their job? I mean really hates it. I have met a few over the years as a financial planner. Those individuals were willing to do almost anything to retire as soon as possible. Some considered things like moving to a foreign country with a low cost of living, selling their home or getting roommates. I should point out that those people were closer to full retirement age.

For those of you looking to retire early with financial freedom, think about what your bare minimum retirement would look like. Could you move to a place with a lower cost of living? Would you give up going out to dinner? Work towards a nest egg that will support this bare-bones lifestyle. You probably will decide against moving to that cabin in the woods without running water, but it might be nice to know you could. Considering your bare minimum retirement, and knowing you have enough money saved to at least cover some standard of living in your early retirement, will also influence other life choices you may make along the way.

Would you lease a new luxury car if you knew it meant you would have to work a few more years? Downsizing your house might look more appealing if it meant you could retire now rather than in 10 years.

— Level 6: Enough to Actually Retire Well
Assuming you are doing pretty well and are happy with your current standard of living, what would you need in order to maintain your standard of living in retirement? Knowing you are on track to accumulate a nest egg to support that lifestyle is a big win. Gold medals go to those who have accumulated enough assets, or passive income streams, to be in a position to retire well.

## Sgp CRBR estimates: LZ.Y^CPF^DBS

I have several blog posts with retirement burn rate figures… This is an attempt to consolidate the figures, so those blogposts can point to this one.

[c=current estimate, not a forecast]


— [c] Author Pauline Teo ….. estimated SGD 1500/M of retirement burn rate for her dad, as of 2017
— LZ.Y .. Full Retirement Sum is generally considered adequate, paying out about $1300/M per person, consistent with my $3k/couple estimate. LZ.Y felt SGD 1300/M/person
— [c] DBS seminar .. As of 2021, DBS research shows that among DBS customers, a typical retiree needs SGD 1390/M (burn rate). $2400+ for a couple. Many DBS customers only receive $600-800/M from CPF-life.
— [c] CPF-life .. Enhanced Retirement Sum is the highest retirement sum available, paying out about SGD 2k/M per person.

%%CRBR]SG: improving over past10Y #R.xia

see also

Based on a mail to my friend XR, on retirement burn rate in SG.

Q: Inflation hits everywhere including public transport and food, so how come my prospect of Singapore CRBR has improve over the last 10Y?

— expected wellness costs remain unchanged. Insurance cost would increase with age but no surprise.
— food:
I now eat more raw fruits and vegetables.

  • Most fruits are inexpensive and I avoid those rare fancy fruits.
  • The vegetables I eat raw are always cheaper than any cooked food.

There are many low-cost food options that I didn’t notice 10Y ago. For example,

  • frozen food is both healthy and cheaper than fresh.
  • Smoothies are now part of my daily meals and I prepare it at home, at very low cost.

My meals are smaller than 10Y ago.

When I go beyond fruits/raw-veg/smoothies and eat hot food, I eat mostly home cooked, compared to commercial food 10Y ago. I bring leftover of home cooking to office, so I seldom need to buy commercial food.

I have also cut down on fresh bakeries by 70-90%. Most of the bakeries I eat are bought my other people, so I may not know the cost.

If my average meal 10Y ago costs $3, it is now 70% like $2. Therefore, a fancy restaurant meal is now 30 times my average meal cost.

—  transport:
fare inflation is very easy to observe. It has not gone up as fast as I worried 10Y ago.

There are also senior citizen fares that I didn’t notice.

I guess the elephant in the room is car ownership. 10 years ago I often toyed with the possibility of owning a car when I have a bigger family. Most of my Singapore peers, younger or older, seem to drive nowadays. Unlike them, I don’t want a car in Singapore. Am now more comfortable using public transportation and bicycle, because I’m slowly mellowing up, growing more patient with my commutes.

[18] retirement burn rate: 33-50% of current

This is my first serious look at CRBR (retirement burn rate) forecasting.

People told me that as kids grow up, my burn rate would decline enough to make my cash reserve appear deep enough (or too deep) for my lifetime. This is despite inflation and medical needs. I think now I am seeing an early sign. Grandparents also see it.

In contrast, some financial planning “experts” say that retirement burn rate is 70% of prime time income. I disagree.

  • my current burn rate is about half my income in Singapore.
  • my current burn rate can half when kids grow up.

Q1: In retirement, how many percent of your current income is required to sustain a comparable lifestyle, assuming asset returns (yield, appreciation…) match inflation?
A: (Conventional wisdom): 75%.
%%A: 20 to 33%, for a comfortable SG lifestyle.

Q2: In retirement, how many percent of your current burn rate is required?
%%A: 33 to 50%

My 2016 burn rate analysis shows that only 2k/m is couple base burn rate, so the conventional wisdom estimate is inconsistent with my experience, and over-generalized and highly misleading.

If I retire in Malaysia or China then burn rate should be even lower.

— needs vs wants .. Pauline Teo’s book is the first to point out this difference. In Feb 2021, I told Felicia of OCBC that many retirement discussions mix wants and needs.

I asked Aaron of DBS “Among the retirees you know, there must be many whose cash flow needs become significantly lower because kids have grown up.” Aaron said yes but other retirees increase spending after retirement, often on extravagant things, such as sight seeing, dining out, gifts for grandchildren. I find this lifestyle naive (lacking wisdom) for a retiree so I asked him further “But those spends are not financial Needs like medical needs or survival needs. I can understand if I have 3 times more money than needed as a retiree, I would probably spend it, rather than leaving it to my kids.” Aaron agreed.

According to both Aaron and Felicia, some Singaporeans seem to fancy “retirement in style”. They would see their burn rate increase when they stop earning salary! Are they day-dreaming?

The rationale seems to be “After working hard for decades, now I can pamper myself !” OK maybe for the first 5 years.

safe withdrawal rate: 4%rule #U.S.only

update: ffree^carefree^ezlife #horizon explains that ffree analysis is dominated by big shocks and hazzards

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_studyhttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/four-percent-rule.asp describe an influential 1998 paper by three professors of finance at Trinity University, using U.S. data on stock, bond and inflation. However, the 4% rule was actually proposed by a 1994 paper by Bill Bengen.

It illustrates the long-term strength and volatility of the U.S. stock+bond market. It is relevant to me as well as the majority of U.S. retirees.

In Oct 2020 Bill Bengen updated 4% to a higher, more aggressive max_withdrawal_rate.

This blogpost is mostly based on https://www.getrichslowly.org/four-percent-rule/.

— safe …. from running out of money within 30Y. It is assumed that the portfolio needs to last thirty years. The withdrawal schedule is deemed to have failed if the portfolio is exhausted in less than thirty years and to have succeeded if there are unspent assets at the end of the period.

Capital preservation was not a primary goal, but the “terminal value” of portfolios was considered for those investors who may wish to leave bequests.

— CPF-life and the U.S. stock/bond market
I guess the 4% rule was created based on US market. In contrast, CPF-life invests globally and pays out in SGD.
— alternative nonwork income: The original researchers are very confident about their safe withdrawal rate, but I’m not. I need more cushion, more buffer, like my rental income, CPF-life
— inflation: It is assumed that the portion withdrawn in subsequent years (after 1st year) will increase with the consumer price index (CPI) to keep pace with the cost of living
I have reason to believe SGD inflation is better controlled.
— black swan disasters? Researches used historical black swan events to back-test the withdrawal schedule and vindicated the 4% rule.
I tend to worry about unprecedented, imagined disasters.
— key clarification on 4%: Note that the 4% is calculated against the balance of the account only in the first year: withdrawal amounts in subsequent years are calculated by adding inflation to the previous year’s amount, and not 4% of account balance in later years.
— stable burn rate: https://www.getrichslowly.org/four-percent-rule/ points out that for many retirees, burn rate is nowhere near “level” i.e. consistent and stable.

In my case, I expect my crbr (couple retirement burn rate) to be stable. I have better control of my burn rate than those American young retirees.

I track my monthly burn rate consistently. It gives me confidence and insight. One variable is my wife’s personal burn rate, invisible to me, but I have some observations of this rate.

SG retirement brbr: questionable estimate #Pauline

 


See also ## CRBR estimates

[[invest like Buffett for parents]] is a reasonably useful book with realistic observations and tips, but not in its estimate of retirement nest egg.

On Page 7, author Pauline estimated SGD 1500/M of retirement burn rate for her dad. I see it as a realistic estimate as of 2017, when the book went to print.

Then from there Pauline estimated SGD 360k to last 20Y, while ignoring CPF-life. A Singaporean need not amass SGD 360k before retirement, because about SGD 200k locked [1] into CPF-life would pay out $1500/M for life.

[1] The catch is … horrible liquidity, standard feature of annuities.

Based on the SGD 360k estimate, Pauline then used a longer retirement_phase (reflecting improving female life expectancy) and 3% compound inflation rate over a 25Y “working_phase” to arrive at SGD940k. She used “Singapore high inflation” as a rallying cry for her readers to “amass SGD 1M”, but that’s inconsistent with my personal experience. 3% compound inflation rate is an overestimate. In Singapore, if home price inflation is removed (as per CPI criteria), then I would estimate a 25Y inflation factor of 1.4~1.6, so her father’s $1500/M retirement burn rate would become $2200 or 2500/M over the 25Y “working_phase”.

Pauline reached a shocking conclusion “In fact, all Singaporeans who are 40Y old and below would know that we would need at least SGD 1M in savings in order to retire safely”. Well, 90% of the world population aged below 40 has much less savings than that, so according to her, either SG is extremely expensive or most of the world population are unsafe in their retirement prospect!

— Why I bother to write this blogpost
1. There are many propaganda messages like “SG is the most expensive city”, “SG inflation is horrible”, “You need $1M to retire”… This book is the first serious yet non-academic presentation of the $1M estimate.
2. I like Pauline’s retirement burn rate estimate of SGD 1500/M, consistent with other ## CRBR estimates.
3. 3% compound inflation rate is an overestimate compared to my 30Y personal experience, but to her credit, Pauline’s estimate of “prices doubling over 25Y” is more realistic (closer to my experience) than other propaganda estimates.

visualize me+wife enjoy`retirement @CRBR3k #def[CRBR]

It helps to visualize a SGD3k retirement lifestyle. Keep record of the current spend. I hope to reliably identify the “irrelevant” costs (tax, childcare, flights…) and arrive at a CRBR (“couple retirement burn rate”) of SGD3k. The more sound, more comprehensive, and deeper my analysis becomes, the more confidence we will have about what it feels like to live at this burn rate during retirement.

Alternatively CBBR [couple base burn rate] is another term but it sounds awkward.

In the MYS scenario, I would simply assume total burn rate is MYR 3k or half the SGP scenario. Food, transportation, everyday consumable price tags are similar to SG, but in local currency. It’s hard to visualize anything else.

Q: What would I do when I’m no longer able to find work?
Q: What places would we go in our spare time?

These questions affect our burn rate. Clearly I’m in favor or working all the way until I couldn’t find work.

[18]early retirement ] SG #YW.Chen

ffree cashflow projection has the latest figures

Update: Today YW gave some numbers. He felt 60k/Y burn rate is the minimum for his family of three . With 2M asset he would need something like 3% annual return but he dreams of 8%. He feels 2% annual return is seriously insufficient but I doubt it.

Key Differences between me and some my peers:

  • I really really want to work till old age. Many of them wish to retire in 40’s.
  • Burn rate – my determination and discipline on burn rate control.
  • My wife and I have Singapore citizenship

See also eg@personal financial independence within%%family

YW mentioned early retirement. I guess with their combined savings, they probably can do it. Assuming their burn rate is USD 5k/month, their passive income and savings can probably last 30-50 years.

I estimate my family burn rate now at SGD 5k to 6k a month. I have around SGD1.5k passive income now. If my entire family stop working, we would move to a rental apartment in Singapore (US rents are much higher) and lease out our current apartment, with a net rental income about SGD 1k. Hopefully my Philippines property could contribute SGD 1k passive income. If we also maintain our burn rate at SGD 3k as planned, we would be able to survive in Singapore without touching our savings. (After age 67, CPF-LIFE should contribute SGD 800~1600 for each spouse.)

SGD 3k/M is a reasonable estimate. See CPF-Life/covid19 $handout reflect`(jobless)burn rate

“Survive” comfortably, I hope. I have reason to hope so, since I follow a primitive system to track my expenses for years, so I know where we spend. I’m fairly good at it.

My family’s major medical expenses are largely covered by integrated shield plans in Singapore. We are debt free.

In reality, situation is better — my wife and I both can work till old age. As I told everyone I want to work till 65+ in technology, and till 75+ in some other domain. That plan has never changed. I think my wife also prefers to work and earn her own living.

Other cities? Once we stop working, we could move to cheaper locations in Malaysia, as described in multiple blog posts.

I used to fancy other domains outside banking IT. Now I have mellowed up. I keep my options open, but I accept banking IT jobs for the rest of my career. At VP salary, the workload is non-trivial but manageable. If I grow old and can’t cope, then I will settle for a lower salary in banking IT.

Even with our relatively low combined income, I’m positive about our capacity for relatively early retirement, because of

  1. burn rate — my confidence to control our burn rate, based on insight into our past burn rate
  2. our confidence to keep earning two salaries and growing our retirement nest egg, up to whatever time I want to retire
  3. college — my decision to leave college education funding to “other people”
  4. medishield+polyclinics — for Singapore citizens
  5. properties — in relatively good locations and inflation-proof

##[17] SGD cashflow]semi-retirement phase #Fuller

Update:

Tanko pointed out $3k/M is sufficient until tested by a cashflow event. He feels real life is more unpredictable, so for many retired couples the uneventful phase may not last long. If you want to weather the storm, you may need a $3M contingency reserve .. something 99% of us don’t have.

This was exactly my attitude expressed in numerous emails until 2018. My attitude (tanko?) was like “even though I have recorded evidence of a 4k family burn rate for the past X years, I still need to prepare 10k/M”in my old age, I still want (not “need”) a salary.


See also https://tanbinvest.dreamhosters.com/2014/12/08/retirement-planning-ideas-le2-tanko/ and other posts in the same blog.

See also passive income generators

When asked by financial planners such as at a Prudential road show, I have estimated that for my wife and me combined, the retirement monthly burn rate is very roughly S$3k in today’s dollars,

  • including regular clinic visits
  • excluding major medical
  • excluding overseas trips
  • excluding rental or mtg expenses, hopefully $0

At s$3k, my wealth (by Fuller’s definition) is rather high. No need to work any more. The EarlyRetirementExtreme author estimated 100Y of wealth for himself.

Looking at my recent burn rate (which I track carefully), 3k is a realistic forecast of our retirement burn rate. I understand my own burn rate very well. This is the part of my financial planning I understand best, which is still rather imperfect.

Living alone in the U.S. I spent below $1k/month excluding rent and flights. When self-employed as a bachelor, I was earning $2k/month and had no cash flow problem at all.

My Zofia and I could move back to MYS/SG when retired. Below are some of the positive/negative cash flows during my semi-retirement years:

^ kids contributing a bit of allowance, if any
^ part time salary —  Note my target retirement age from Full Time job is 75.
^ low risk investment dividend, such as insurance
^^ rental income minus property maintenance cost.
* I would advocate lease spread — rent a cheaper/smaller place and rent out our home.
^^^ CPF Life would start paying at 67 or 70
…. see figures in 3 ffree scenarios: cashflow figures
▼flights to see family
▼Major medical? Rely on medi-shield?
▼other medical expenses not covered by medi-shield. Other insurance can help. It’s naive to assume that medical would be 80% of the burn rate.
▼old age related expenses? Ask grandparents
▼▼ utilities including daily transportation
▼▼ food

Repeated “^” means higher predictability.

If we stay in JB or Thailand and visit Singapore when needed, then the savings/gains would include (look at the tax-like expenses)
+ cheaper food
+ lease spread
+ routine medical is cheaper
+ cheaper utilities including daily transportation

— support grandma? My NNIA is sufficient for CRBR, but not sufficient to support my aging parents. I think this type of “support” is a luxury comparable to branded degree for my kids. There is one difference — my aging parents have their pension income and nest egg.