Tag: t_critiq77

critical, bold views against HERD instinct or conventional mainstream thinking

time saved{commute ^ SDXQ: unconvincing ROI

Posted on by tiger40490

Shaving 10 min off my morning commute means a lot to me than to my colleagues.

All my colleagues hate long commute but for majority (80%) of them their personal commute is tolerable in the grand scheme of things. That’s why they choose to make concession/sacrifice on this dimension, to trade for something personally more important, such as School District. When I question them on the tangible value of SD, I feel their answer is unconvincing, even though my view puts me in the minority.

I was also questioned “what do you accomplish with those 10 minutes saved from commute?” I list many items but none accumulates to a tangible and otherwise-impossible achievement, something I can point at and say “that’s what I accomplished using those 10 minutes” —

  • MSFM degree
  • progress on specific investment research.
    • without this 10min/day I am unlikely to get the required concentration. All the following items are personal hobbies on the margin.. relatively low priority. Marginal value of 10 minutes.
  • yoga classes
  • specific coding questions
  • specific blog posts

See also time saved{commute as felt@early mornings

These answers are debatable and subject to interpretation, … Ultimately, the value of 10 min saved is personal — 99% positive feeling + 1% some measurable ROI. Personally, I feel my lifestyle is significantly enhanced by those 10 minutes saved. Likewise, I presume the value of a slightly better SD (rating 8 vs 7) is often nothing but positive feeling.

Except gym classes, there are rather few things you can do now that’s Certain to produce tangible ROI. The uncertainty is such a universal and fundamental factor that most of those perceived and proclaimed benefits sound subjective, unconvincing wishful thinking.

In fact, SD and commute benefits are still more measurable than things like

  • value of living close to a beach like east coast park
  • value of living at shopping district compared to the quiet Juliette St

value investing: my take

Posted on by tiger40490

I feel value-investing requires absorbency and is not for everyone. Picking undervalued stocks using a sea of data is a tedious job, and you may be in a way competing with some “strong” players who analyze the same data.

— hidden gems:

I feel undervalued stocks are 10 times more visible than overseas properties. I think properties in “familiar” cities still get less mind-share than the most obscure undervalued stocks ! Thousands of automated systems collect, compare, disseminate financial data on All stocks. If there’s some hidden gem in an undervalued stock, it won’t stay unnoticed for long.

Therefore, I feel the likelihood of finding an undervalued stock is lower than in properties.

living cost: SG ranking]top cities: expat^locals perspectives

Posted on by tiger40490

http://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20170407-is-singapore-really-the-worlds-most-expensive-city questions why EIU’s index puts Singapore as world’s most expensive city.

In the EIU’s index, Singapore stands head and shoulders above the world’s other cash gobbling metropolises for one reason — cars

Those who claim Singapore is outrageously expensive often use a biased “basket of goods”

popular^lesser-known financial products#BGC

Posted on by tiger40490
  • for popular assets like AAPL or eurusd, we can say any information is quickly disseminated so the market price is presumably fair.
  • for lesser-known stocks, information is available but retail mind-share is limited. More bargains exist, but they are the focus of many mutual funds and hedge funds!
  • — now properties:
  • for properties in popular (liquid but overpriced) locations, each unit probably receives a fair amount of scrutiny, so deep discount is often due to negative factors.
    • BGC is more popular than surrounding areas and therefore overpriced.
  • In Bayonne or Cambodia, for each unit the number of serious investors is probably very very low, so bargains are more likely. The amount of un-assimilated information is high, since each investor must wade through lots of raw data and ask many questions.

 

%%cohort r more keen@windfall !!income

Posted on by tiger40490

I’m clearly more proud of my high-income investments. My peers generally feel “6% a year passive income over 10 years … only 60% profit over 10 years… Too low too slow.”

I asked only a few peer investors. I can only assume that most of my friends in my cohort are not debt-free. I feel most of them are not only dreaming but aiming at a 200k->$500k-1M windfall, over 5-10Y. My wife might be one of them.

Q: So how much risk capital are they committing for that target windfall? 100k? 200k?

Q: is that level of return realistic? I guess only tech stocks and BTC can deliver 30%/Y compound return, usually low growth, low growth … short bursts of high growth.

I don’t want to overthink this question, since it affects only them, not me.

Q: Did I ever aim at that target and how did I decide to stop?
A: perhaps I was never so ambitious so hungry for windfall, after I become an investor.

disillusioned with stock/bond mufu

Posted on by tiger40490

I used to spend hundreds of hours on FSM, researching on stock/bond funds. I always found very few funds different from the norm.

  • 90% of mainstream equity funds have very high correlation with SP (short for SP500 and Dow Jones.)
  • Some non-US equity funds or commodity equity funds can have slightly lower correlation, but always under-performing SP
  • Virtually all bond funds show dismal long term growth
  • The “balanced” or “multi-asset” funds are invariably uninspiring combinations of the above.
  • No genuine commodity funds exist. Always a mining stock fund in disguise, always under-performing SP
  • Virtually all the high-dividend funds under-perform SP and often shows no long term growth

 

[19]branded uni 一流大学一年 6-8万 美元

Posted on by tiger40490

==21 Dec 2018, 07:27==

查了一下最著名的 20 所美国私立大学， 清一色都是一年 5万 – 6万。 加州伯克利 （U.C. Berkeley）州立大学是公立大学最著名的，也要一年四万。

我问了好几个美国同事（非华人），学费差别是一个不可忽视的考量。他们会一家人权衡是否选附近州立大学，作为本州居民可以享受学费优惠。 他们也讨论知根知底有品质的二流大学，因为比较容易获得奖学金。（一流私立大学极少发奖学金给本科生。）

四年省下 10 万 （甚至15万）美元， 对这些白领中产阶级家庭也是有意义的。

说到这里我就意识到， 富裕家庭，不必在乎多花十几万美元，送孩子去最有声望的名校。(据我的美国同事所说，美国大学知名度完全取决于科研成果。我觉得这是几个因素当中最重要的。)

华人同事呢， 好像都提前几年为每个孩子存下 25 万美元准备进名校。我没这个计划。我的家庭收入应该是比不上大多数美国白领华人家庭的。我会认真考虑送女儿来新加坡上大学， 学费低多了。

更重要的原因 （我亲身体会）– 名校与否，只影响毕业后第一次找工作。一旦成功进入某公司，A 校 B 校 两个毕业生谁强谁弱有目共睹，自己也心知肚明 — 名校与否毫无影响。美国的顶尖公司，我觉得基本上是不看出身的。许多毕业生靠面试能力，或私人关系，进入某个顶尖公司，而没有付 25 万美元的名校学费，或许更划算。

富裕家庭不在乎这点钱。我周围的华人家长，似乎都是大气凛然地置之度外。但是我对追捧名牌一直抱怀疑态度。

四年名校教育并非“点石成金”，只可以镀金一层。我一直相信，一个优秀的学生（我算一个，我的小舅子莹辉也算一个），放在哪个有品质的大学都能成材，并不会因为学校不出名而受多大影响。送孩子去个高质量而不闻名于世的大学 （比如美国前 200 名大学，或新加坡的几所大学）并不会耽误孩子前程。父母不必自责。

澳洲，新西兰，加拿大都没有闻名于世的大学可以比肩美国 20 强 （多伦多大学，悉尼大学或许可以）但每年都为本国培养了众多人才，教学质量有目共睹， 学费较低，都是可以考虑的。（英国学费太高。）

==Fri, 21 Dec 2018, 21:08==

谢谢爷爷回复。我非常在乎你的见解， 经常告诉我的同事、朋友们“我老爸也这么认为”，把你的观点当作靠山。

好像很少华人家长有你这种洞察力。 或许他们有洞察力但还是随大溜。或许他们不缺这 50 万美元 （两个孩子的名校学费）。