Tag: t_critiq77

critical, bold views against HERD instinct or conventional mainstream thinking

non-Chinese学区: all parents are caring

Posted on by tiger40490

With exceptions, Black and Latino parents are traditionally more focused on happy childhood than academic performance. Perhaps some of them dislike academic pressure.

I feel they care about their kids no less.

Chinese parents feel “if we care about our kids’ well-being, then we also care about their academic standing in the school.” If they fall behind in class then we need to take it seriously and help them improve.

In a school in China, half the kids are below average, by definition! Chinese parents take it seriously and work hard to get their kids to put in more effort. Balance-striking is subjective, and the typical Chinese parent tends to sacrifice play time and non-academic development. Some U.S. parents may despise us. They could be right in the end.

If still the kid is below average, then we parents accept that we and the child both worked hard. “Let’s not push ourselves to an unhealthy level. Let’s have confidence that we would catch up progressively in a few years.” Some (like my dad) say that in peace; some say that grudgingly, with regret.

In conclusion, No I don’t think Chinese parents care more about our kids, but yes we care more about academic progress.

If in moderation, that’s usually a good thing but could be problematic if the child is a late bloomer or not academically inclined.

I wonder what German (and other European) parents do. They are less academically focused than Chinese parents, but many German students achieve academically later on.

scheduled commute: discipline, stress

Posted on by tiger40490

case study — I lived in East Orange for a few weeks. Train interval was around 30 minutes even at morning peak hours. I missed once and had to wait for a long time. If I have important work to finish, When I came home late I again missed the peak frequency 🙁

Contrast with the flexibility of subway, or bike!

The more disciplined, the more flexible you can become.

Scheduled commute requires planning and discipline. Some get used to it and find it a non-issue on most days. but I feel it’s still a major inconvenience, like a loose screw on my bike — every now and then it breaks and needs a fix. We don’t prefer a life with too many restrictions, that requires planning on everything.

Discipline, adjustment, planning … all add to the “stress” — You miss one step, you suffer…. Painful lessons….

The rich teach their kids these useful habits, but these kids are not subject to the painful consequences when they fail. I’m not rich, so I had to learn these habits the hard way. Some people (perhaps my son) fail to learn all of these planning habits so they pay a price all the way until they get rich enough to avoid planning so many things.

I’m no perfect planner either 🙁

DeepakG@学区房pressure: yourself(!!peer pressure)=the issue

Posted on by tiger40490

The strain + pain I feel due to SDXQ

  • higher price tag -> heavier mortgage
  • longer commute -> less time for family or rest
  • or both

I complained about peer pressure. It’s real. I can imagine that “most” [1] of my Chinese and Indian peers live in top school districts and send their kids to good schools there. I feel poor as a parent if my kids don’t go to some school in a good school district, whereas the kids of my peers do.

Paradoxically, if my kids can’t compete in a top school and transfer to a regular school in a good school district, I won’t feel the guilt. That particular guilt is about providing enough for my kids — Real peer pressure. Then Deepak raised Point #1 why don’t you care about the serious peer advice that you should not live away from family? Strangely, I have a robust defense against the “family separation” accusation and peer pressure. But why am I defenseless against the “school district” peer pressure? Because deep in my psyche, I still believe a decent school is a probably necessity for my kids.

If the regular U.S. schools are as lousy as I feared in my subconscious, then my kids can stay in Singapore schools.

When I feel the unwanted pressure to buy a school district house, I immediately blame the peer pressure but actually the key is my mentality.

[1] https://tanbinvest.dreamhosters.com/2017/07/14/shades-of-grey-peers-owning-sd/

 

 

The rich provide more4their kids,but I did a good job as a dad!

Posted on by tiger40490

When you read any serious writing, or watch a movie, you will realize that for a parent, “good job” is NEVER about how much money we provide for our kids, though it is still part of the “job”.

The more casual (occasionally careless) a conversation is, the more likely we would notice hints

“amount of money parents provide” is correlated to “QUALITY-of-parenting”.

(Similarly, a good job as a child is never about how much money we provide our aging parents, or the qualifications or the financial success we earn for our parents.)

Here are what I have done so far: I have spent a lot of time with my kids, and I carefully plan for their future, not only financially. I would say that effort to guide them on life skills, survival skills, recovery skills, good habits, self discipline, self motivation etc is more important than an ambitious university education fund.

I work hard to earn more money to support myself, my wife, the safety and well-being of my family. In contrast, funding my kids’ university education isn’t my most important financial duty.

就学基金 # student loan !! parents’ duty

Posted on by tiger40490

Chinese culture — OCBC advertisement would tell you an aerospace engineering degree costs S$260k… and it’s parents’ responsibility!

Chinese culture — even after his children graduate from college, the Chinese parent still takes the responsibility to help them pay off their student loan, or help them buy their home. I think in other cultures the young adults are responsible for their finances at a much younger age.

Introspective — Sure a private uni is good, if we can afford it, just as …

  • 30-minute commute is good, if I can afford it.
  • home with a private study room is good, if I can afford it.
  • private yoga instructor is good, if I can afford it
  • $200/month yoga program is good (even though I attend only 4 sessions), provided I don’t need to worry about the cost.

My own experience – I had reasonably good A-level grades, so I could have applied to some private U.S. universities but not outstanding enough to earn scholarship. My parents only had enough money for a Singapore university. I felt fine. I didn’t suffer or regret.

If my kids are really good students they would have enough choices beside the expensive universities. In that situation, if we can’t afford a private university, we would accept. That’s what happened to me as a student, and what happens to many talented students every year. I don’t believe the expensive university education is such a make-or-break factor. Getting into a good firm (like Goog, APPL or GS) might be.

As of 2017, tuition + expenses per student per year is between 50k – 60k for one colleague (per Shubin). Another colleague said 250k for 4 years per student. I have reason to believe these are realistic numbers. Luckily, my 2 kids have no “overlap”, so I can slowly save up, if I take up the responsibility.

  • Option: Grandpa stressed many times — a mediocre university is fine
  • Option: student loan. We will probably max this out
  • Option: they work to pay for themselves
  • Option: some “local” state universities are good enough, such as Stony Brooks
  • Option: Singapore universities are more affordable
    • All university students get student loans up to 80% of tuition, with no questions asked. I received that myself, as a foreign student.
    • For the needy students, there are bursaries. As a foreign student, I received S$3000 every year
    • There are still other financial assistance schemes for Singapore citizens.
    • For living expenses, my kids could work in the university or outside. I did that a few times while in college. Very easy to find jobs.

 

##6ppa realistic longTerm return across asset class

Posted on by tiger40490

Q: What’s a realistic, reasonable expectation of long-term annualized compound return?

%%%%%%A: primarily depends on the historical period you are looking at, assuming we use historical return as a basis for forecast. Regime change is rather common. For example, real estate growth was very high for some time, but now … slower.

Rental yield is more stable and resistant to regime change.

%%%%%% A: depends on the asset class

  • My FundSuperMart equity investment averaged 3-5% over 4 years
  • GIC 20Y return is 6.1%.
  • hedge funds — if a fund can consistently deliver 6% (to their customers) it’s considered pretty good, according to an insider
  • insurance — I think 4% posted return is a common, conservative expectation.
    • CPF Life annualized return? Perhaps, presumably 5-7% with severe illiquidity .
    • Insurance as an asset class has poor liquidity and long lock-in period, but only 3% – 5% annualized return. Insurance companies typically achieve negative 10% to positive 20% investment return each year on their internal portfolio.
  • Property
    • My Blk 177 flat? roughly 10%+ excluding rental income.
    • top cities in Asia? roughly 10% – 15%
  • alternative investments
    • [a] 24% achieved over 2Y — German property private high-yield bond
    • [a] 28% achieved over 2Y — Brazil property private high-yield bond
    • [a] 33% per year to be delivered — Asian property private high-yield bond
  • [a=not compound annualized)

yield^inflation(burn rate)during your semi-retirement

Posted on by tiger40490

BusinessTimes 16 Jan 2017 has a detailed analysis about retiring on 3-4% investment yield. (My savings rate is probably 60-70%) This analysis has a basic assumption — investment yield CAN keep up with inflation…. Really?

In the Singapore context I blogged about the 20Y inflation as I experienced. Relatively low.

As to investment yield in the form of dividends or fixed deposit interests… not so sure. In conclusion, I would say — inflation did erode but investment yield didn’t keep up 🙁

Therefore, I like rental property better. Rental income rises against inflation, with good reliability. (In fact, the capital appreciation also rises with inflation, but that’s topic for another day.)

Key thing in this plan — reliable passive income. I’m betting on 5-7%. I think mostly I need to rely on rental properties.

mansion^commercial rEstate demand]leading cities #defy`gravity

Posted on by tiger40490

Q1: how do we tell if a psf residential price in a leading city is bubble and overpriced? There are many criteria within supply/demand framework, including wage level, rental yield, CPI, hot money from Chinese investors, land + construction cost, psf comparison with other leading cities…

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/11/global-house-prices has a nice evolution-graph comparing various countries.

Today I will focus on rental yield. See also my blog post on rental yield of Singapore vs China. Now compare vacancy rate of

  1. shop units in malls
  2. office units in office towers
  3. soho units
  4. hotels
  5. mansions

Mansions

are only for the wealthy investors. I feel it’s more like art collectible or race horses. Discretionary investment. They don’t need to rent out. Without the rental as link, the supply-demand situation is somewhat decoupled from the economy.

Private condo

are somewhat similar to mansions. Demand is often driven by wealthy investors and therefore decoupled from the economy. As a result, in leading cities psm can keep rising irrespective of wage level.

This often feel like Ponzi scheme, if the underlying value[1] remains unchanged while the market price grows exponentially.

[1] as measured by rental and construction cost

Shop/hotel/office units

are built and  purchased for rental. It’s a factor of production. Shops esp. Occupancy is usually excellent in shopping malls. However, vacancy can be very bad for a “sub-prime” location like ground floor shop units in a remote warehouse. Hotels and offices can also stay vacant for a long time.

I guess offices are usually leased for a large area. Very few tenants for tiny offices. Tiny shops are slightly better.

## reverse thinking: BridgeRetail risk scenarios

Posted on by tiger40490

Update — In a “normal” economy (Africa, Brazil…), properties tend to appreciate. However, Exceptions define the norm and are worth investigating. I’m yet to focus on those exceptions.

My past experience tell me to suspect just about every info about an investment, unless guaranteed in writing:

  • 🙂 Jill Lim’s returns are written into contract, though the payment date is less certain.
  • 🙁 AIA __projected__ return turned out to be over optimistic. I guess TokyoMarine might be similar

“Reverse thinking” primarily means bearish, pessimistic, risk-averse, more than cautious. However, we can also challenge the traditional risk-averse views and think optimistically! Be paranoid and suspicious but not irrational. It’s inevitable  that  some important risk will be missed or underestimated.

  1. Country risk including political/economic risk
    1. reverse of foreign investment, esp. from Chinese companies and the hot money
    2. Cambodia may not have more upward potential than BGC has. In 50 years it may not catch up with BGC.
  2. less Chinese-like — so Cambodia may not take off and surpass even 25% of Beijing’s psf valuations
  3. mall success — The mall may not become popular. Location is less developed less mature than BGC. Insulated for 10Y but capital appreciation and credit risk are still affected.
  4. liquidity — When I need the cash I may have to sell at a very unfavorable price.
  5. restriction on foreign investors — Right now Cambodia has no restriction on foreign investors like other countries do, but may impose them.
  6. fund repatriation — Need to fly over. Better than Philippines but still not easy to use the money. Less accessible.
  7. Credit risk?
  8. precious? — There will be other shops set up competing for tenants.
  9. concentration risk — too much into properties
  10. capital appreciation — may be limited because my purchase price is possibly inflated by the rental guarantee.
  11. USD may weaken
  12. 70% return over 10Y? but time value of money?
  13. water point — may not have higher valuation than other units

After 10Y I may not need to sell.