143>CVX: comparable to XOM #wanted $150; achieved

Chevron, one of the 6 oil majors, has a market cap comparable to XOM.

  • ๐Ÿ‘Žย 12M high up.
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ div increased through 2020. CDY 6% .. https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/cvx/dividend-history
  • analyst no sell. tgt $143 https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/cvx/forecast
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ part of the aristocrats
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ I already bought one share

PFE: 3% div blue-chip #$300

  • analysts: no Sell
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ price trend: 3M down
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ div no cut for years. CDY 4%, above average among blue chips.. https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/pfe/dividend-history
  • overvalued? Less so than tech stocks
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ 5Y history is fairly stable
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ no worrying signs
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ compared to MRNA — more established, less hyped

— perception:

  • ๐Ÿ™‚ perception: large, established
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ mature sector, not sunset sector, not under threat

But every stock in this category can be overvalued. Analog: You can worry about every college you are applying “It may lose its prestige after I enroll.”

— compared to other blue chips

  • more stable than motor, oil sectors, flight/cruise, GE,
  • comparable to industrial, financial
  • any other blue chip to consider?

O:US monthly dividend trec #G3-REIT

“Realty Income, The Monthly Dividend Companyยฎ, is an S&P 500 company dedicated to providing shareholders with dependable monthly income.” — the company slogan

“Realty Income has been paying dependable monthly dividends throughout its 51-year operating history.”

https://www.realtyincome.com/about-realty-income/monthly-dividend-commitment/default.aspx has more details. Looks quite transparent and honest.

https://investmentu.com/realty-income-o-dividend-safety/ is a Oct 2020 analyst review of covid19, positive but not completely biased.

https://www.fool.com/millionacres/real-estate-investing/articles/is-realty-income-a-buy-nov-2020/ is another analyst review during covid19, positive but not completely biased.

  • Out of 119 REITs rated byย SafetyNet Pro, only 19 receive the highest rating for dividend safety. Realty Income is one of them.
  • “a favorite among dividend and REIT investors”
  • “generally considered a rock-solid REIT with a long track record of delivering predictably strong profits and growing dividends”
  • “these (tenants’) businesses are not easily disrupted by e-commerce competitors and also are quite recession-resistant”
  • “has increased its dividend for the past 92 quarters in a row”
  • looks like a dividend cash cow, but somehow not mentioned in previous articles about “top 9 dividend stocks”

— Q: dollar allocation?
A: 200 – 5000
— Watch out for infatuation signs
— why rated A without name recognition?

  • SP500 status
  • 50+ years trec, through booms and busts
  • div increment trec
  • dividend safety widely scrutinized for years

T:US; VZ 4%; Energy12

— T:US

Scenario — Suppose I progressively invest 6k. Dividend is currently $360/Y. Downturn … my 6k becomes 3k :(… I will hold and keep earning dividend, perhaps a paltry $120/Y… tolerable.

How to add up div received

  • copy from rbh div page and paste to tmp.txt
  • grep ‘+’ tmp.txt and copy paste into excel

— Hows does VZ compare?

  • ๐Ÿ™‚ higher reputation, similar market cap
  • A hedge against missteps by T:US. Intra-sector diversification is generally good. I would do the same in tobacco, oil, utility sectors.

— as compared to Energy12

  • ๐Ÿ™‚ liquidity. Flexibility of selling to meet my cash crunch
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ quantum flexibility
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ full transparency, without legality concerns
  • ๐Ÿ™ dividend amount is not contractually guaranteed as in Energy12
  • ๐Ÿ™ no bargain
  • ๐Ÿ™ lower probability of windfall appreciation
  • ๐Ÿ™ higher probability of depreciation like falling from $30 gradually to $2

 

PBCT: steady-div regional bank #PUB

  • up to $100
  • analysts? neutral no Sell.
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ the only bank on the exclusive Dividends Aristocrats list, having increased its regular dividend every year for the past 26 years. While many of its regional peers and essentially all of the biggest banks have been forced to reduce their payouts in prior economic downturns, People’s United was able to ride out the bad times and still raise its dividend. See https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/financials/bank-stocks/do-bank-stocks-pay-dividends/
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ div increased through 2020 .. https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/pbct/dividend-history
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ small unit price. Easier to experiment
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ known brand. $6B mkt cap

A-list dividend stocks #!! hot stocks

— (imprecise) qualifying criteria for A-list or ็”ฒ็บง dividend stock: — steady dividend trec
Price? a secondary concern if you mostly focus on current income. Nevertheless, the price trend need to be reassuring, providing long-term confidence of “capital preservation” .. very similar to the criteria I shared with Tanko in my 10 Jan 2021 mail.

If the dividend trec gives us confidence, then the annual profit and free cash flow should protect the stock price. That is in theory, in my theory. Priceย  in the real world is mostly supply^demand. I can only hope supply^demand catches up with the profit.

— avoid the mass market hot favorites
Similar to principles of value investing and my rEstate investing, I decide to deviate from the mass market norm and pick my own favorites.

My own picks are usually not among the market’s hot favorites like tech stocks. Hot favorites are usually overvalued.

— examples

  • sector: oil majors + oil/gas infrastructure
  • sector: utility
  • sector: tobacco
  • sector: venerable REIT
  • sector: foreign (not U.S.) banks, insurer
  • sector: telco
  • — names
  • T:US .. the first and defining example
  • O:US? A
  • XOM? A

— defining div*

  • divB: slightly lower than divA, often due to lower CDY. Usually big names OR with proven trec
    • Name recognition is same as divA, and higher than divD.
  • divD: the DDDDdefault level when we don’t have time to decide.
    • Can also be a known brand (incl. ADR) but low CDY.
  • divU: UUUnknown names with decent CDY, AND without any article showing its trec or financial strength. Note high CDY alone isn’t enough to lift a name out of this category

 

XOM DYOC imt T:US

https://www.streetinsider.com/dividend_history.php?q=xom shows stable dividend payout for decades.

Someone said XOM has increased its payout for more than 30 consecutive years.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/11/11/how-safe-is-exxonmobil-and-its-dividend/ is about XOM dividend safety during pandemic. XOM seems to be resilient, earning my “A” rating as a div stock

— other big oil stocks? See https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/010715/worlds-top-10-oil-companies.asp