LFC ไธญๅ›ฝไฟ้™ฉ: decline since 2007 despite analysts

near 15Y-low.. A case study of either long-term decline or undervaluation. Gary pointed out a common feature among some Chinese stocks — slow decline from the 2007 peak. I guess it’s rare to find a well-known China stock bucking the trend of long-term decline.

  • 12M down
  • https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-life-lfc-great-value-165004399.html
  • 2 analysts all positive (ignore the rbh rating)… tgt Apr $26 ! …. but the stock fell steadily ๐Ÿ™
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ listed on NYSE, not pink sheet.. Higher liquidity
  • probably the biggest insurer in China
  • P/E = 8, kinda undervalued
  • div maintained through 2020. CDY 4% lower than other China financials. https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/lfc/dividend-history
  • divD because of lower CDY than banks + long-term decline.

EBF: established biz-paper vendor #non-digital

  • ๐Ÿ™‚ div maintained through 2020 — https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/ebf/dividend-history
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ Ennis is a cash cow that has paid uninterrupted dividends for more than two decades.
  • ๐Ÿ™‚ founded in 1909… perhaps some enduring value…
  • 12M price trend? not recovered
  • too small to get analyst rating

printed business products .. kinda holding strong against digital trend.

A-list dividend stocks #!! hot stocks

— (imprecise) qualifying criteria for A-list or ็”ฒ็บง dividend stock: — steady dividend trec
Price? a secondary concern if you mostly focus on current income. Nevertheless, the price trend need to be reassuring, providing long-term confidence of “capital preservation” .. very similar to the criteria I shared with Tanko in my 10 Jan 2021 mail.

If the dividend trec gives us confidence, then the annual profit and free cash flow should protect the stock price. That is in theory, in my theory. Priceย  in the real world is mostly supply^demand. I can only hope supply^demand catches up with the profit.

— avoid the mass market hot favorites
Similar to principles of value investing and my rEstate investing, I decide to deviate from the mass market norm and pick my own favorites.

My own picks are usually not among the market’s hot favorites like tech stocks. Hot favorites are usually overvalued.

— examples

  • sector: oil majors + oil/gas infrastructure
  • sector: utility
  • sector: tobacco
  • sector: venerable REIT
  • sector: foreign (not U.S.) banks, insurer
  • sector: telco
  • — names
  • T:US .. the first and defining example
  • O:US? A
  • XOM? A

— defining div*

  • divB: slightly lower than divA, often due to lower CDY. Usually big names OR with proven trec
    • Name recognition is same as divA, and higher than divD.
  • divD: the DDDDdefault level when we don’t have time to decide.
    • Can also be a known brand (incl. ADR) but low CDY.
  • divU: UUUnknown names with decent CDY, AND without any article showing its trec or financial strength. Note high CDY alone isn’t enough to lift a name out of this category