Malaysian同龄人in his40s: realistic PFF

I find this 2013 description on [[Personal Money]] rather detailed and realistic, offering multiple revelations and lessons for me. The subject is Mr Lim who wrote in to the columnist Gina Wong , to have his financial health [goals, projections, gaps] assessed in her column [[Money Makeover]].

  • 1) MYR 866k investment assets (29% in REITs, 26% in other stocks, 38% in fixed income funds, 7% cash or MM assets), generating a 8% return — questionable, unsustianable due to high equity allocation
  • 2) MYR 80k emergency fund
  • 3) MYR 500k “personal assets” .. vague.. presumably an estimate of his other assets .. perhaps home equity, 401k
  • 4) minus MYR230k total liabilities .. any debt beyond mortgage would be a worrying sign.
  • ^^^^ MYR 1216k Net asset, adding up the 4 line items
  • MYR 95,295/Y (almost 8k/M) family burn rate, on a MYR 230k income, at age 41. The author (Gina) thinks this burn rate is thrifty and uncomfortable. However, I guess many working class Malaysian families as of 2013 probably spend much less.
  • MYR 60k/Y squirreled away at age 41 = “approximately 25% of his income”, perhaps including  endowment bx.
  • ^^^^ 230k-95k-60k = 75k/Y earned but not spent not saved, so I guess it consists of payroll deductions [tax, 401k, donations, medbx, discounted company stocks,,] This large discrepancy is easily missed by most readers, who would get walk away with a misleading estimate of his brbr or savings rate
  • MYR 120k/Y target NNIA from age 55 through retirement. 60k/Y CRBR + 60k/Y to be reinvested to fight inflation
  • .. I find this NNIA ambitious/challenging if he wants to rely on stocks. Reits and bond funds are slightly less unreliable.
  • —- Lim’s other financial goals are a LG2 focus of this blogpost:
  • MYR 3300k age 55 target balance. Rather ambitious.
  • MYR 1200k  target college fund to help his 2 kids
  • No mention of his inherited wealth or his wife’s contribution.

Q: which portions of his snapshots are oversized/undersized?
* rEstate (conspicuously missing) : undersized
* 401k (conspicuously missing) : undersized
* debt: oversized.. should be close to zero at 41
* nest egg: oversized
* target NNIA by 55: ambitiously oversized

Q: is he on cash flow high ground or low ground? The author says high, notwithstanding insufficient insurance
Q: Brbr? 230k/96k = 2.4 very good
Q: is he a big saver, big spender?
A: author is 100% sure Lim is a “frugal family man” who , 5 years ago, started living “below his means”.
A: At the end of the review, author recommended Lim “upgrade family lifestyle” … relevant to me
%%A: not a big spender, but neither a big saver. I assume Malaysia cost is lower than Singapore, so MYR 8k/M family burn rate is too high

Q: how is his Earn/Save/Invest capabilities? Remember Lim is serious about retiring at 55.
%%A: aggressive investor

Q: Fuller wealth?
%%A: can be better. Lim’s current burn rate (8k/M) and Crbr (5k/M) are rather high

 

[18]ffree=state@mind #peers diff

See also ffree ^ envy+FOMO

6 levels of ffree is one of the first articles describing the liberating self-knowledge that “I can retire now if I want to”. Financial independence is based on easy elementary math — Without salary from work, match up your family burn rate against your Savings + Income.

This elementary math has to be a projection over a long horizon, but over long term there are many uncertainties. We tend to overestimate our predictive power on medical, inflation, property depreciation … We tend to underestimate the amount of uncertainty/volatility,  black/white swans. See also NAV 一辈子花不完@@ 4 factorsTherefore, for me financial independence is really a state of mind. I often feel peaceful and reassured by mathematical projections based on

  • income — rental incomes + rental spread + CPF-life .. but beware of attachment
  • income — shields
  • expenses — burn rate … due to detachment
  • asset appreciations — Beijing, Cambodia, BGC, SG .. but beware of attachment

Actually for me, “financial independence” has a modified math definition — “without the pressure to work, match up … .” Due to the modification, my peace of mind has another pillar

  • I’m capable of, and will enjoy, working till my 70’s

Q: Am I too attached?

Yes to my property assets
yes to my health, which will eventually diminish
yes to my robust career prospect, which will eventually diminish

— Q: Strip away the exaggerations, the superficial, the unfounded, what are the measurable, rock solid, real differences between me and my cohort in terms of ffree ?

  • I record/reconcile my burn rate over decades, and have higher confidence in my forecast.
  • I have a reliable nonwork income in cpfLife and HDB rental, not counting other rental properties.
  • I often feel free to (and actually did) choose lower jobs. I don’t think many in my cohort feel that same level of freedom.
  • Based on straightforward calculations and SG public data, I have no worries about medical, retirement income, long-term inflation. I think many of my cohort are not so care-free. These are big components of long-term ffree.
  • — Here are some subjective assessments:
  • I have no plan to save up USD 300k/child for college
  • I say and feel I can stop working any time .. Statement 1
  • I say both parents can stop working indefinitely and my family can live a reasonable, comfortable life .. Statement 2.
  • I sometimes say that I have more money than I need for my lifetime .. Statement 3.
  • ^^^ My circle of a few dozen friends never say these things. Am I serious? Yes. I didn’t say what kind of family lifestyle that Statement 2/3 entail.

 

ffree for half of your (working) life@@

See also at what age I started feeling closer 2 cashflow freedom@@

Q: how many percent of my full-time or part-time working life will be ffree?
A: hopefully 70%, from age 43 to 75 (32 years) + 3 years during my bachelor years. So 35Y out of 50Y

Until recently, My answer was “below 10%”. It was hard to imagine financial freedom i.e. “不想做工就不做“ as Liangzhong put it.

Q: how many percent for my peers?
A: below 10%, perhaps the final years before retirement. I think many don’t even look forward to retirement, even if it is ffree. In contrast, I enjoy my ffree because I don’t need to spend so much. I enjoy high BR buffer ratio and being in-control.

— Q: why do most of my peers spend bulk of their working life toiling under livelihood pressure, and reach (some form of) ffree so late?

  • most of them have one (or more) big max-tenor mortgage
  • most of them (Chinese) also pay for their kids’ college
  • many of them also struggle to save up for a Crbr (couple retirement burn rate) higher than my SGD 3k Crbr
  • looking at Earn^Save^Invest: excel at 2 out of 3, I feel many struggle with Save.

career_longevity= bedrock@ %%fledgling ffree

See also

Paradox — Fuller wealth and ffree are defined in the context of zero salary, but my ffree is fragile. So, paradoxically, the bedrock of my fledgling ffree is my career longevity, such as but not limited to dev-till-70, health and vitality. Look at LKY and my dad in their 80’s.

More than a “shield“, this is a bedrock and a foundation. I like the vivid imagery of shield and bedrock.

I think many of peers (such as Jason Fu) are very pessimistic about dev-till-70 (not career longevity). I feel sad for them.

Both missteps and swans (external disasters) are “covered” by this shield.

— non-monetary benefit of career longevity are extremely important.
I want a purpose, engagement, interaction
— nonwork income? Much less reliable than career longevity. I’m more skeptical than pessimistic
medical cost cushions? mostly I rely on my SG citizenship
Am I a cautious optimist? I think it’s better than pessimist.
— citizenship is the 2nd bedrock, providing multiple benefits
— my burn rate control is the soil around the bedrocks, almost invisible but always there.

无底洞: latency,med inflation.. #w1r5

Update:


See also conserver family disposable income

MLP hosted a latency presentation by Martin Thompson. One MLP audience asked a question. Here’s what I  vaguely recall:
Q: we spent lots of time to tune a system and achieved a few microsec of latency improvement, but someone points at another system (perhaps at a competitor) and say our system can be faster. What’s your view?

Case in point — I told a Goldman Hong Kong interviewer that my orderbook at Rebus can handle 700k mps. He said array-based orderbook can easily handle 1000k mps. Well, 700k mps on Rebus was more than enough for the business needs at RTS 🙂

Answer from Martin : To improve latency, the most important thing is time including developer’s time. Look at the requirement of the system. If your latency meets the requirement, then spending more time tuning is not effective (and not necessary, IMO). A few microsec further saving could be meaningless.

Q2: what if the requirement is to beat the competitor?
A: I think the project could become never-ending. The MLP latency-critical networking team shared personal experiences on the proper approach to network latency engineering. Network engineers would work closely with latency-sensitive traders to implement incremental latency improvements and within 72 hours assess the PnL impact. Invest more time and resources only if justified by PnL. If your trades are already beating the competition in terms of PnL, then having a faster or slower network may be irrelevant. Focus on the end goal (PnL) and stop worrying about secondary yardsticks like latency. Latency is not always the dominant factor in the game.

So that wraps up my three separate examples on latency. Now let’s turn to the other (wide-ranging ) topic of this blogpost — FOMO vs livelihood.

Q4: how much disposable income is enough for an (slightly above) average life, not a life in comfort and style? In terms of brbr (burn rate buffer ratio), how plentiful is enoughffree^FOMO #9K/M asked a similar but more specific question.

I have achieved bare-bones ffree at a “conserver” level, So one of my two major pains now looks like the rich feeling outpaced by a tycoon… endless greed, mindless peer comparison like Rajat Gupta

— Rajat Gupta was the CEO of McKinsey, after earning IIT and Harvard degrees. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rajat_Gupta) He was a multi-millionaire but reportedly wanted to join the billionaire club. Wikipedia said … Gupta reportedly began to express a certain resentment about money, as his peers in Silicon Valley and Wall Street (including McKinsey’s private equity clients) at the time “raking in staggering amounts of money while Gupta soldiered on with a mere senior partner’s millions”

His “mere millions” is more than enough for livelihood, but he was presumably driven by endless peer comparison. This endless FOMO may or may not be related to his disgrace.

— LuckyPlaza .. I envy the LuckyPlaza early investor who made perhaps a million dollar paper profit, but hey, he also envies me for
* my high annual salary. Total salary would exceed his paper profit in a few years. Over a few more years, my total would far exceed his paper profit.
* my wellness + family harmony

He would also envy the bigger investors who made $3M .. low-latency arms race! What’s enough? Perhaps half a million.

— Some cultures (and ethic groups) may be lukewarm about the latency arms race. As stated in some Americans must want to be successful,  some Singaporeans must want to be successful.

— In ffree]US=unrealistic4many 华裔 middle-class Henry.Yin said RMB 500k/Y is insufficient for an unmarried tech worker.
What’s his “latency requirement”? I think a standard requirement for this class is owning a home in Shanghai or Beijing, which typically costs RMB 6,000k to USD 1M. Kevin.Chen said RMB 3,000k would buy a very small house in Shanghai. So I guess 99% of Chinese population is too poor by this standard. This standard is probably an affluence or luxury standard, for an exclusive club of rich people.

By this requirement, most low-latency systems are too slow…

— Dating competition .. is similar to the latency arms race. The attractive young ladies would demand “top 0.1% of bachelors” meaning more properties, more fancy cars, more branded degrees. My father told me that nowadays, it’s not enough for a bachelor to have a home in a Tier 1 city as the girl demands a 100 sqm home  .. arms race.

— healthcare inflation.. my parents once said that they need a RMB 400k medical fund. If some treatment exceeds that then they would give up and say No to the 无底洞.

China consumers (like my mother) often favor imported products and newer products, often for valid reasons:

  • imported products are sometimes superior in some ways, but often not much or not relevant
  • older products sometimes hit drug resistance

For some common conditions (like cancer), I think there is “always” more fancy, more expensive, newer solutions, just like the new techniques in latency arms race. Some of these solutions cost a bomb but offer marginal benefits (some observers may say diminishing return). My mom gave examples about extending life by months. If those extra few months cost $1M, then it’s rational to ask “Where can this million dollars have more impact?” These /advanced/fancy/elective/ solutions contribute to medical inflation, but this is CPIx inflation and often driven by exclub, not livelihood.

eg: Nursing home is no “medical” facility but /healthcare/ facility. The minimum cost is very low, as proven in many Singapore community nursing homes. However, my parents in Beijing seem to want something much better. Indeed there are very fancy nursing homes asking RMB 10k/M or more…. smells like arms race.

eg: medishield coverage for private ward.. costs a lot more than the basic insurance that covers B2 ward. Many in my cohort prefer the more luxury insurance, sometimes without due diligence. Some of them probably think they can afford the more expensive insurance, and perceive private ward as important. I think this mentality contributes to medical inflation, driven by exclub, not livelihood.

In many cases, if a consumer doesn’t exercise critical thinking, then her worry about healthcare inflation boils down to blind_FOMO, not livelihood.

envious@%%NNIA #cRisk

See also hi-risk-hi-INCOME: my chosen assets

My cohort in U.S., SG, China have low passive income. Very few are envious of the passive income streams because

  1. most of them aim at windfall not current income
  2. most of them usually buy (sizable) properties on loan, eroding rental yield
  3. most of them only buy residential properties, with lower GRY, and worse haircut.
  4. some buy China residential properties or SG condos … lower GRY
  5. some buy U.S. residential properties (tax) but rent to a single family
  6. most of them do not fancy dividend stocks. Remember Tanko, Kun, AshS
  7. Last but not least — most avoid credit risk. These peers stay (far) away from those credit risks as if they were drugs. These peers are Never serious when they consider these investments as the credibility of the counter-party is highly questionable to them… Fear of unknown:
  • overseas properties built by lesser-known developers
  • Energy12
  • Jill’s Germany and Brazilian projects
  • Jill’s AsiaProperty
  • —- Instead, my peers mostly invest in traditional or mainstream assets to generate (relative low) passive incomes
  • dividend stocks
  • REITs
  • bonds
  • local rental properties

(1st turning point) when I receive the key to a fully constructed unit, these peers have some “regret” as they overestimated the credit risks.

(2nd turning point) When I start receiving rental income, these peers have more “regret” because another credit risk concern subsides.

However, when I experienced excessive, hopeless delays in Majestic Village and BGC, these peers have some “vindication”, because they can see “Victor underestimated the credit risks.”

So, given the credit risk, I don’t think there would be a lot of envy. Another reason is, my passive income assets show sluggish, uninspiring appreciation.

[19]ffree discussions with2friends: @end@c++US

Before I left U.S. in 2019, I had separate email discussions with SY and JL. To my surprise, they each replied (14 Aug 2019 and 28 Aug 2019).  Their brief answers are truthful, revealing and worth reading.

Without going into details of those discussions, I feel basically alone with respect to my ffree “state of mind”, as described in another blogpost, financial freedom=state@mind.

When living with family, I foresee a decline in this state of mind….

What would grandpa say?