[21]U.S.home: too many inflexibilities #w1r2

See also

— livelihood vs FOMO
[L=a livelihood concern] This blogpost was written a few weeks after I defined the 6+ elements of livelihood . Grandpa and Jack.He would agree that Home ownership is not a necessity. The less affluent can stay rented long-term, so heavy rental burden is a livelihood concern.

[f/F=FOMO-related or FOMO-driven] Most of the items below are FOMO-related. The pTax, HOA and mtg burden are part of the “deal” when you join the exclub, and maintain your status … high maintenance !

== Given the multitude of constraints, we want to show (and posses) flexibility. It’s crucial to identify your points of inflexibility, i.e. your unique priorities (half-ranked) compared to peers.
— constraint: CC1 [commute] .. am not flexible. Arguably my #1 inflexibility
Sugg: favor connectivity
As explained elsewhere, long commute is not a livelihood issue
— [L] constraint: high rent in the U.S. .. am flexible
am flexible to keep renting long term, whereas my peers may prefer buying a home ASAP.
am flexible due to my Asia rental income
am flexible with half unit in small home
am flexible with lease spread including sublease
— [f] constraint: oversized price tag .. am flexible with small or old homes
Sugg: avoid big homes or top SDXQ
Sugg: buy small unit and lease spread
— [f] constraint: pTax .. am less flexible, due to my limited income + location requirements
Sugg: 43R lease spread to offset pTax
— [F] constraint: SDXQ .. am flexible with average schools.
Sugg: live rented in a reasonable SDXQ, and move if needed
— [L] constraint: CC2 [Chinese community] .. wife and I are less flexible
Possibly a livelihood issue for wife
— constraint: car-dependency .. I can reduce my inflexibility. This inflexibility severely limits my choice of location.
Sugg: favor walkable neighborhood

— constraint: resale liquidity … in a low-cost, low-growth location such as Bayonne or South Edison
Am less flexible because I hate losing money on rEstate.
“Appreciation” is related word.
— [f] constraint: mtg burden .. am less flexible, due to income
Sugg: lease spread .. pay mtg on rental property while renting
Sugg: pay down the outstanding
— [f] constraint: HOA .. am not flexible when condo location is perfect for family
am also less flexible, due to my limited income
====
— the ffree Q: The constraints listed in this blogpost highlight the limits to … my exclub status or my barebones ffree?

Jolt: If you retire early, then you would probably move to (a cheaper, more Chinese country or ) less expensive locations. Commute would be a non-issue.

You may want to cash out your residential properties and stay rented, with subleasing. Sales proceeds, invested in a “shrinking nest egg”, would pay your net rental for 30 years.

However, some affluent people would want to retire AND still keep their homes. They could use lease spread to retire somewhere “nicer”.

In any case, I don’t think CC1, CC2 are real limits to ffree.

— compared to my Chinese cohort

  • am flexible with 1) SDXQ, 2) renting forever 3) home-sharing/sublease,
  • we are inflexible with 1) CC1, 2) CC2,

— compared to a 10Y younger guy in a comparable profession

  • my #1 advantage: overseas rental income(s), substantial enough to defray the heavy burden of rental.
  • my advantage: bigger portfolio, producing a growing current income
  • my advantage: less sensitive to peer pressure, more mellow at my age
  • my advantage: semi-retired (if I so choose) .. less earn-more/move-up pressure
  • my advantage: I figured out a dev-till-70 plan, in my niche position
  • my weakness: slower adapting to daily driving

Who has more dependents? a 10Y younger guy may have 2 or 3 kids too.

1998bachelor’s fin-health #tuxedo

update:


The trigger/inspiration — discussion with Jun.Z’s son, and other recent graduates.

In 1997 or 1998, I met an NUS EEE graduate one year above me. In his sleeveless tuxedo, he was running his own tiny company with a young employee. He had been doing that since graduation, and had never worked for any employer. In hindsight I assume he was unmarried and staying with his parents.

He was the first among my peers to make this breakaway observation:

“In this place and at this time, NUS engineering graduates like us can always find a job as long as we aren’t picky. But In this place and at this time,  we don’t really need to worry about livelihood, so why do we need a salary in the first place?”

His words were backed by his action, which left a lasting impression on me. (Among other things, I started watching my Fuller Wealth growing progressively towards 20Y, and later quit my job.)

On the bright side, my cash flow self-assurance in my 20’s was not based on exclub but based on FullerWealth, brbr, benchmark to median household income.. all valid criteria in the 2020s.

On the less-bright side, there was a pervasive [1] but largely unfounded, hearsay /apprehension/ among my cohort of recent graduates.

  • mate selection .. is ALL about exclub
  • home purchase .. 3BR needed, according to peer pressure .. “2BR won’t be enough for a growing family”.
  • .. In Chinese cities, this pressure was/is even worse than Singapore
  • parenthood .. SGD 1M/child according to peer pressure, including some $300k “needed” for college
  • .. In U.S. middle-class, the college price tag is even worse than Singapore
  • medical .. my mom said something like $100k (四十万)
  • inflation (+retirement) .. threatened to shrink each (saved) dollar by half every 20Y or so.
  • — my career worries as a young techie
  • “My income is not rising as fast as my cohort” .. but based on what data?
  • “My skillset is not broad enough. I’m boxed in and have a single narrow skillset compared to my cohort…” but who?
  • not learning enough, not competent enough
  • short runway .. by age 30 I am expected to be competent, independent, possibly a team lead
  • long struggle ahead, over 40Y
  • too many career choices… “Is this domain right for me? Will I regret?”

Q: how has my idea of livelihood changed since?
A: first hand experience convinced me how little I actually need in each area, in terms of livelihood. I now see those second-hand beliefs are absurd and illogical. This is MY breakaway from the conventional wisdom on livelihood. In terms of livelihood, it’s somewhat similar to that tuxedo guy’s breakaway observation.

As I told Jun.Z’s son, At that time I had basically no savings (before I started saving like crazy.)

Q: how has my livelihood (cash flow high/low ground) changed since?
A: My living standard has increased with a growing family size, but my brbr has remained healthy. Beside having a family and growing old, my #1 biggest change since 1998 is my career longevity [including a projection of lifelong cumulative salary].

You may say “Hey, you have limited evidence of your career longevity projection. Countless derailers could pop-up.” I think differently. Rather than naming some achievement, some milestone as the “#1 change since 1998”, I pick career longevity. The future is more important than the past.

[1] So widespread and profound that it was impossible to stand firm and unaffected… 三人成虎. Even today, I need to stand resolute against a similar brainwash about branded college, SDXQ, home upsizing. As discussed with Tanko, one major misstep (mis-punch on my punch card) would cost my current comfortable ezlife on my cash flow high ground.

Is it(income+asset) inflation || improving` livingStandard

See also globalization reduc`min cost@ BasicHealthy Food

In China over 40Y salary went up 100~1000 times, rEstate appreciated as much (if not more). CPI inflation also stayed high for years, but probably less than salary. That’s why living standard improved for ordinary wage earners.

Fancy food, branded clothing, residential property, luxury car, branded college [3] … inflation largely driven by exclub. Xiaosheng.Liang (梁晓声) is the first to point out — As exclub demand increases, vendors increase prices. I think governments can’t do much about this demand, except property cooling measures.

Consider this semi-realistic scenario —

  • your salary has grown by 100%+ (i.e. more than doubled) over 10Y, but may gradually plateau or decline.
  • your equity asset portfolio has appreciated by almost 100% over 3Y, though you worry about crash. See Shiller: live more like millionaires
  • your rEstate asset portfolio has appreciated by (weighted) average 100% over 20Y, though you are not sure about bubble

Q: is your burn rate rising along?
A: it depends on the individual lifestyle (creep), and savings habits. So in some cases, burn rate would not rise as much as salary and investments. Look at my friend AshS.

Q: Compared to the China experience, is the above scenario evidence of currency depreciation (i.e. falling purchasing power)?
A: income and asset inflation perhaps, but I think CPI basket (your own, not the official basket) of goods in Singapore may show a modest inflation like 1-2%. You can easily verify that using your own food basket price, transportation price etc

Q: is rEstate and housing inflation ignored by CPI?
A: basically yes, but rental inflation is a major component of CPI. A home is classified as an investment asset rather than a consumption. See consumption inflation: inapplicable@realEstate

Based on these answers, the scenario can be very lucky, something like carefree easy life, provided AA) you maintain low burn rate and high brbr like 2.5 , and BB) the bulk (not a tiny portion) of your savings go into those high-growth investments exemplified above.

Actually, I choose to avoid BB in favor of current income.

Q: if you are “lucky” as explained, then how relevant is your own effort?
A: tricky. See blogpost on internal locus of control. Effort is part of each element. 1) Many people (me included) dare not touch U.S. stocks, so their mutual funds or Asia stocks are possibly less spectacular. 2) rEstate portfolio requires cash flow and (if overseas) active management

[3] U.S. elite private universities raise tuition fees at around 5% per year, based on my UChicago experience. This is clearly a luxury. This is the highest inflation in my personal experience.

— A paradox
(This scenario is fairly realistic. For tcost, I won’t explain the evidence.) I would say many of my peers enjoy salary and rEstate asset growth, but still complain. They complain about work-life balance, job insecurity, technology churn, parenting cost, housing cost, …. and their mediocre salary, but their income is in the top 5% nationally. Paradox !

I guess the paradox has to do with exclub and FOMO. See my “dream job” mail to CSY.

A similar paradox is FOMO^livelihood.

feeling richer^inferior @unchanged income #FOMO^livelihood explains “People feel richer when they rise relative to perceived peers, regardless of inflation/deflation, or income rise/fall.”

Therefore, these peers (XR, Deepak, CSY,,,) are actually much richer than before and much richer than their fellow countrymen, thanks to income and asset inflation, but they choose to benchmark with high flyers, spend like them, and therefore feel poor.

[21]Y livelihood pressure@USD300k/Y income #LZ.Yu

Yet another blogpost on a familiar paradox, after a discussion, without a lot of new content. I wrote this letter to my wife, but edited later.

Over a 2021 Chinese New Year dinner, I described the paradox “Many WallSt colleagues have a household income around USD 300k (USD 17k/M after tax), in the top 2% among U.S. households, but I notice some kind of livelihood pressure.” (The paradox also exists in Singapore.) I asked why.

  • LZ.Yu and his wife pointed out the car cost, mortgage cost, private schools, tuitions (more expensive in U.S.), perhaps maid cost.
  • LZ.Yu also pointed out taxes including pTax and the tax-like med insurance (Melvin3 items)
  • I pointed out the FOMO factor — they spend as much as other families in that tax bracket, otherwise they felt impoverished. The Chinese middle class tend to complain about livelihood pressure while living in the top 2% of tax brackets. See [19]wage+homePrice: biased views@China colleagues etc.
  • I pointed out their need to save up for an Ivy League education .. about USD 600k for 2 kids. Real pressure.

If you earn $17k a month, and spend $16k, with close to no zero net balance in the bank (below 10k), you have a very thin buffer (brbr). You would feel a livelihood pressure, whether you admit it or not.

LZ.Yu’s wife has a familiar view — “For a big spender, it’s her own money. If she earns it herself, and if she is happy with her lifestyle and if she can cope with it over ups and downs, then it’s suitable for her“.  This view is full of IF’s. In reality, millions of people spend like there’s no tomorrow. When tomorrow comes, they would not show regret in public, but in their quiet moments, they would feel regret once a while, esp. when they look at their saver-investor peers. Same regret as binge-eating, binge-gaming or binge-drinking. We do regret later .. our life was weakened not enriched.

My first-hand observation of my high-earning sibling (before his/her mortgage) showed me that any savings built up in bank account tend to disappear within months. I think it’s a lack of self-discipline. Similarly, you also said some homeless people have trouble saving away a windfall income. I think even if this person receives a million-dollar inheritance, he would spend it all within 2 years.  A common pattern among undisciplined people.

Note the absence of “pressure” in that big-spender lifestyle as described, but I believe the limited level of savings makes the lifestyle rather vulnerable. Indeed LZ.Yu’s wife went on to describe a big-spender’s reaction to a $1k denied medical claim.

median household income n midclass quality@life #R.xia

The free availability of credit is similar to the free availability of drugs and junk food.


Q1: is it naïve to assume that a family of 3, earning the U.S. median household income is able to enjoy a decent quality of life?  You hinted at the savings factor (discussed later)

Yale graduates typical earn 80k/Y pre-tax, according to a Yale professor on an 2022 BBC broadcast.

In the greater-NY region, median household income is about 80k/Y pre-tax, according to https://censusreporter.org/profiles/31000US35620-new-york-newark-jersey-city-ny-nj-pa-metro-area/. This “median” is computed across all households regardless of size. In economics, a household can have one to four or even more members. I believe a family of 3 earning 80k (pre-tax) would have a decent living standard. This is my short answer to Q1.

You described your own story 10 years ago + the story of your Mexican neighbor. As you hinted, a key differentiator is the savings rate. If a family of 3 can consistently save $5k, and invest at 4% return over 20 years, they would build up a $150k nest egg [1], providing a cushion in a downturn. However, many people seem to fail the “consistency” criteria — They save for a while and spend all in a splurge.

Q2: Will $5k/Y or $420/month less spent affect that family’s middle-class living standard? I say no. The reason has to do with the concept of livelihood needs vs aspirations.

  • A typical saver family would think hard about allocating and budgeting for livelihood needs. They bend over backward to make ends meet while saving some amount every month. They feel insecure (or impoverished) when looking at their cushion/reserve/nest egg, and compare it to their peers.
  • I imagine that many non-saver families (in the U.S. or other countries) hate the trouble, hate the restriction, hate the loss of freedom. They feel impoverished when they must adjust spending to reach a savings goal. They feel impoverished when they compare to their free-spending peers.
  • ^^ Peer comparison is a fundamental driver of the spending/saving/investing behavior.

(I always appreciate personal stories. Here’s another.) Until Apr 2010, my wife and I together earned slightly over USD 90k pre-tax, or around 75k post-tax. I spent an estimated [2] 60~70k to support a family of 2 or 3. My living standard wasn’t a hardship, but we had to make some (by American standard) uncommon lifestyle choices, choices that most middle-class Americans wouldn’t accept:

  1. eg: net rental cost .. was $500~1100 even when we had a newborn. Contrast that to “earn $72k (post-tax), pay $24k on rent” lifestyle typical of American renter families.
  2. eg: car ownership .. we just said NO. This requires that we live near public transport, not suburbs.
  3. eg: medical insurance .. we bought only briefly for my wife before having baby, and for my newborn baby.
  4. eg: no debt .. no car lease, no credit card loan, no hire-purchase by installment. We never spend the money before we earn it.
  5. eg: alcohol, tobacco, latest gadgets, overseas vacations .. aspirations ! we just said NO. We did go to cinemas and waterfront parks.

The first three big-ticket items, rather than food cost as you mentioned, add up to explain the bulk of my higher savings rate (among comparable families). We sacrificed many non-essential “finer things in life”, and I actively rejected peer comparison. (Actually, most of my colleagues had much higher combined incomes and therefore not my peers! ) Based on first-hand observations, my longer answers to Q1 are:

  1. Yes, the median household income does represent a reasonable quality of life and comfort level, provided we spend well — allocating, budgeting, and giving up non-essentials.
  2. Part of “spending well” is consistent saving on a monthly basis, which requires discipline and sacrifice.
  3. fundamentally, freedom and responsibility are the 2 sides of the same coin. Quality of life and discipline are also two sides of the same coin.

If words like “discipline”, “sacrifice”, “responsible” and “give-up” sound inconsistent with “comfort” to you, then the answer to Q1 is NO. Among those families earning the median, if the majority of them actually struggle for livelihood[3], then I believe it’s first and foremost an attitude problem. You may blame the high-cost “system” [4] of the U.S. but I think that’s only a superficial part of the problem.  If an individual lacks discipline, then even if she earns higher than 70% of the local population, she would still struggle to make ends meet, let alone saving up.

[3] most of the non-essential items are not part of livelihood, such as car ownership, home-ownership, living in the suburb, …

[4] I’m not denying that some U.S. “systems” are indeed expensive, such as healthcare, home repair, (public) universities, and public transport. Therefore, some observers (you too) claim that a middle-class lifestyle in a rich country like the U.S. is not so enviable because the cost of living is much higher than assumed.  There’s an economic concept designed to measure “income relative to local cost of living”. It is the PPP-GNI [i.e. PurchasingPowerParity-adjusted Gross National Income]. Using this estimate, Singapore nationals are richer than Americans.

Q3: When earning $75k post-tax, did I feel a decent quality of life?
A: Not sure. Perhaps we were giving up too much while building up a war chest, a cushion, a nest egg.

[1] computed using https://www.rl360.com/row/tools/regular-savings-calculator.htm?Currency=1&LumpSum=150000.00&YrsTilNeeded=20&GrowthRate=4
[2] I keep my “burn rate” records every year, except my U.S. burn rates during 2007 -2012.

feel` richer^inferior @unchang`income #smartphone

Inflation, recession, covid restrictions, rental income decline, health decline due to aging
.. are some of the common “stressors” that have not become my stressors, because they affect many people around me more seriously.

Q: What’s special about long commute? Why do I suffer so much while others don’t?
A: 49 out of 50 of my peers can tolerate it better than I can, just as in an economy seat on a long flight.


k_deflation

Past title: covid19 recession: feel`richer@unchanged income

During the covid19 recession, roughly half the Singapore nationals [1][2] experienced job loss or partial loss of income. This made my family feel richer than before the pandemic — a paradox because in theory, without income growth we feel richer only during deflation (price fall). Now I think this theory is inconsistent with how people actually feel — People feel richer when they rise relative to perceived peers, regardless of inflation/deflation, or income rise/fall

Therefore, my sense of rich/inferior is mostly driven by peer comparison or FOMO , although livelihood and Fuller wealth is driven by cost level vs (work+nonwork) income level

[1] I will not focus exclusively on the middle class.
[2] Pandemic-proof sectors like tech, healthcare … employ lots of foreigners

— case: real estate inflation: am poorer even though my rental cost increased minimally
— case: globalization reducing min cost@basicHealthy Food but only a small percentage of the people I know actually say they feel richer thanks to globalization.
Jolt: So deflation doesn’t make us feel richer, for most of us, most of the time.

The paradox of smartphone .. Even though globalization leads to concrete, verifiable life-enhancing deflation [in basic food, clothing, bicycle, toy, basic electronics etc], the ordinary person would feel impoverished if she only has a school-supplied (or pre-owned) old or slow smartphone! Even if this phone is actually faster than a new phone, she may still feel impoverished because it looks outdated ! Vanity?

So peer comparison rather than this “deflation” is the real determinant of perceived poverty. By a certain age like 45 or 65, we don’t care so much about exclub or FOMO, and we can afford to ignore the smartphones (and other fancy, new stuff) that our cohort have.
I think this is a form of mellowing up, a form of let-go.

— (shocking) example: when I receive a modest bonus (like SGD 10k), I feel inferior and poor iFF I know my coworkers get bigger bonuses. In theory, a $10k handout ought to make us feel richer.

— example: in a WallSt bank, all contractors were forced to take 2-week furloughs at year end, but luckily I was spared. Nevertheless, I was unable to work on Christmas and New Year holidays, and lost billing, but I felt richer in comparison to other contractors.

无底洞: latency,med inflation.. #w1r5

Update:


See also conserver family disposable income

MLP hosted a latency presentation by Martin Thompson. One MLP audience asked a question. Here’s what I  vaguely recall:
Q: we spent lots of time to tune a system and achieved a few microsec of latency improvement, but someone points at another system (perhaps at a competitor) and say our system can be faster. What’s your view?

Case in point — I told a Goldman Hong Kong interviewer that my orderbook at Rebus can handle 700k mps. He said array-based orderbook can easily handle 1000k mps. Well, 700k mps on Rebus was more than enough for the business needs at RTS 🙂

Answer from Martin : To improve latency, the most important thing is time including developer’s time. Look at the requirement of the system. If your latency meets the requirement, then spending more time tuning is not effective (and not necessary, IMO). A few microsec further saving could be meaningless.

Q2: what if the requirement is to beat the competitor?
A: I think the project could become never-ending. The MLP latency-critical networking team shared personal experiences on the proper approach to network latency engineering. Network engineers would work closely with latency-sensitive traders to implement incremental latency improvements and within 72 hours assess the PnL impact. Invest more time and resources only if justified by PnL. If your trades are already beating the competition in terms of PnL, then having a faster or slower network may be irrelevant. Focus on the end goal (PnL) and stop worrying about secondary yardsticks like latency. Latency is not always the dominant factor in the game.

So that wraps up my three separate examples on latency. Now let’s turn to the other (wide-ranging ) topic of this blogpost — FOMO vs livelihood.

Q4: how much disposable income is enough for an (slightly above) average life, not a life in comfort and style? In terms of brbr (burn rate buffer ratio), how plentiful is enoughffree^FOMO #9K/M asked a similar but more specific question.

I have achieved bare-bones ffree at a “conserver” level, So one of my two major pains now looks like the rich feeling outpaced by a tycoon… endless greed, mindless peer comparison like Rajat Gupta

— Rajat Gupta was the CEO of McKinsey, after earning IIT and Harvard degrees. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rajat_Gupta) He was a multi-millionaire but reportedly wanted to join the billionaire club. Wikipedia said … Gupta reportedly began to express a certain resentment about money, as his peers in Silicon Valley and Wall Street (including McKinsey’s private equity clients) at the time “raking in staggering amounts of money while Gupta soldiered on with a mere senior partner’s millions”

His “mere millions” is more than enough for livelihood, but he was presumably driven by endless peer comparison. This endless FOMO may or may not be related to his disgrace.

— LuckyPlaza .. I envy the LuckyPlaza early investor who made perhaps a million dollar paper profit, but hey, he also envies me for
* my high annual salary. Total salary would exceed his paper profit in a few years. Over a few more years, my total would far exceed his paper profit.
* my wellness + family harmony

He would also envy the bigger investors who made $3M .. low-latency arms race! What’s enough? Perhaps half a million.

— Some cultures (and ethic groups) may be lukewarm about the latency arms race. As stated in some Americans must want to be successful,  some Singaporeans must want to be successful.

— In ffree]US=unrealistic4many 华裔 middle-class Henry.Yin said RMB 500k/Y is insufficient for an unmarried tech worker.
What’s his “latency requirement”? I think a standard requirement for this class is owning a home in Shanghai or Beijing, which typically costs RMB 6,000k to USD 1M. Kevin.Chen said RMB 3,000k would buy a very small house in Shanghai. So I guess 99% of Chinese population is too poor by this standard. This standard is probably an affluence or luxury standard, for an exclusive club of rich people.

By this requirement, most low-latency systems are too slow…

— Dating competition .. is similar to the latency arms race. The attractive young ladies would demand “top 0.1% of bachelors” meaning more properties, more fancy cars, more branded degrees. My father told me that nowadays, it’s not enough for a bachelor to have a home in a Tier 1 city as the girl demands a 100 sqm home  .. arms race.

— healthcare inflation.. my parents once said that they need a RMB 400k medical fund. If some treatment exceeds that then they would give up and say No to the 无底洞.

China consumers (like my mother) often favor imported products and newer products, often for valid reasons:

  • imported products are sometimes superior in some ways, but often not much or not relevant
  • older products sometimes hit drug resistance

For some common conditions (like cancer), I think there is “always” more fancy, more expensive, newer solutions, just like the new techniques in latency arms race. Some of these solutions cost a bomb but offer marginal benefits (some observers may say diminishing return). My mom gave examples about extending life by months. If those extra few months cost $1M, then it’s rational to ask “Where can this million dollars have more impact?” These /advanced/fancy/elective/ solutions contribute to medical inflation, but this is CPIx inflation and often driven by exclub, not livelihood.

eg: Nursing home is no “medical” facility but /healthcare/ facility. The minimum cost is very low, as proven in many Singapore community nursing homes. However, my parents in Beijing seem to want something much better. Indeed there are very fancy nursing homes asking RMB 10k/M or more…. smells like arms race.

eg: medishield coverage for private ward.. costs a lot more than the basic insurance that covers B2 ward. Many in my cohort prefer the more luxury insurance, sometimes without due diligence. Some of them probably think they can afford the more expensive insurance, and perceive private ward as important. I think this mentality contributes to medical inflation, driven by exclub, not livelihood.

In many cases, if a consumer doesn’t exercise critical thinking, then her worry about healthcare inflation boils down to blind_FOMO, not livelihood.

free-agent deliverymen’s brbr #XH.Fu

Looking at the deliverymen and Uber drivers I think these “free agents” have to work relatively long hours. What if there’s one deliveryman who only needs to work a minimum of 1-4 hours a day (or even 0 hour[1]), as extra hours become leisure? (As with Tanko’s brothers) Let’s further assume _basic_ healthcare, housing and education are provided by government or family.

[1] Ling of MS said in retirement he wants to work as a truck driver, but that would be a distinct scenario.

Q: Is this (comparable to my) carefree ezlife, based on excellent brbr?
A: Possible in theory. His burn rate would have to be much lower than his cohort, when he rejects FOMO such as

  • [a=at or above my idea of barebones livelihood, something of a luxury]
  • [a] top schools for his kids
  • [a] big car, or any car
  • [a] overseas vacations. The low-income, big families tend to prefer staycation
  • [a] restaurants

I would say these are luxury items unnecessary for a happy fulfilling life on earth. He could still enjoy frugal indulgence.

Q: How is his lifestyle different from FIRE?
A: nonwork income … like investment payout is instrumental to FIRE. Note long-horizon windfall profit doesn’t help this guy.
A: removing depednency on salary…. is key to FIRE. The deliveryman still needs salary to make ends meet.

Q: How does his lifestyle compare to the Khmer villagers?
A: [!a] healthcare, [!a] edu, [!a] housing + infrastructures, even [!a] food security is not great in today’s Cambodia.

Q: how is he different from free agent XH.Fu’s life with 2 kids and lots of free time?
A: I think XH’s income is much higher than deliveryman and is comparable to (not lower than) his cohort. XH trades [a] job security for abundance of free time.

Actually the free agents (including XH.Fu) enjoy limited job security, and worry about sudden job loss, sick leave, medical bills etc.

Q (side question): with his spare time, does he adopt a healthier lifestyle than his cohort?
A: I think most adults have just enough leisure time to lead a healthier life, so time is a factor but not a limiting factor. Motivation is the real limiting factor.

realistic role models among us #CSY

Hi Shanyou,

You said “我现在看周围的人,不是看他自己专业上干的怎么样,因为对绝大多数人干的再好也好不到哪里去” I totally agree. Looking around (including those Morgan Stanley EDs), I think 2% to 4% of my former colleagues/classmates are senior managers (above ED) in big companies across greater China (Not sure for how many years) and everyone else seems to be somewhere behind, in terms of salary.

Note the junior ED and Director in many ibanks are basically team leaders in charge of a few guys, but they are usually paid pretty well, around 200k.

Some specialists can probably earn more. But comparing salary is extremely touchy, irrational, unreliable, and not based on verifiable facts. We all try to be rational and philosophical about peer comparison. I wonder what is a simple, fair and realistic yardstick to see who among us can be a role model.

Obviously health and vitality, harmonious family, comfortable cash flow are basic foundations of “good life”, but what else?

In 2003 a friend of mine (Qi ChongLei) introduced to me his simple concept of “easy life” as a long-term personal goal. He is diligent and knowledgeable (now a senior manager in EBay China). Influenced by him, now I feel a simple yardstick is something like “bare-bones financial freedom to sustain an easy life“. My idea of “easy life” is more like “minimalist lifestyle”. I won’t elaborate, but those peers who don’t need to work are the luckiest even if their lifestyle becomes minimalist. Call them Group A.

If that’s impossible, then some peers can take any simple low-paying job and still live a simple-yet-comfortable life. Low-paying like pretax 50k / year. I think these peers are very lucky simply because they are free to take a break any time. These peers probably hit Level two of 6 levels@ffree #US perspective . I now feel these are the realistic role models. Call them Group A-.

I assume most of us are not in Group A or A-. Perhaps you know someone in Group A- but he may not feel that way about his life.

And then, there’s group F — many peers actually struggle on the “foundation” level — failed marriage; serious chronic illness; problem kids (Note academically mediocre kids like my son are fine kids) ….

A friend has such limited marketable skills that he can’t find any other job so he has to accept shitty tasks imposed by his boss, and work under constant pressure. Another friend is forced to work 7 full days a week. I said this is illegal. He said the U.S. labor law doesn’t really protect him, due to legal cost, legal evidence … Even if he wins he would lose his job soon.

I have more than one close friend who have only three-digit savings and/or heavy debt. High interest payments. Uncomfortable cash flow.

I classify these guys as Group F, perhaps unfair to them. Some of these individuals might have some level of financial success (even freedom) but not my role model. Financial freedom is the wrong priority, the most important but not the dominant criteria for a role-model.

— my top strengths in SelfMgmt, as I told grandpa in a 2019 call from Bayonne

AAA cash flow - burn rate including debt
A   cash flow - passive income
A-  cash flow - 30Y balance sheet mgmt
AA  #1) cash flow
AA  tech IV - QQ
A-  tech IV - algo @WallSt
A   #2) tech IV
A-  #3) wellness

Each is an extremely important strength. ( Some of them are probably viewed as competitive “advantages”. )
I only need to be really good at one of them to be rather successful.

However, in reality I’m “generally good” not “gr8” at any.

They each provide a cushion/buffer against the “blows” in our lives. No perfectionist please — No cushion can be perfect as life is full of adversities and setbacks.

Brbr[def]: SG^US #FCF

See also

Earning (10k monthly) 120k/4k burn rate vs 180k/8k burn rate… between these scenarios, I would prefer the former.

— definition: Intuitively, I estimate a BurnRate BufferRatio as := annual_income/annual_outlay

  • amortization … of large expenses like car, college fees.
  • mortgage  [1] P+I … I counts towards burn rate, similar to HOA and pTax. P counts as investment similar to RSP. See exclusions below.
  • Currency is irrelevant in such a ratio
  • family burn rate bench-marking based on comparable level of Comfort
  • luxury education [1] — a G2 component of burn rate. So far, this is under the “radar” i.e. my burn rate tracking system
    • SDXQ — special component

Note on college annual fees — Usually we can only afford the college education in the home country. Consider YLZ.

— These exclusions prove the rule.

  • investment …  not counted as burn rate, such as rEstate principal payments
  • healthcare reserve fund .. one of the biggest part of burn rate but under the “radar” , not counted as burn rate.

long-term care is one special target of healthcare reserve fund, seldom fully covered by any insurance. Insurance has limits.

— burn rate escalation driven by FOMO:

Across the cities I know, inflation drives up salary. Provided I am able to  compete on the job market till my 60’s, my family income would rise with inflation.

Now, most people in my circle spend more than I do, so the industry salary level (i.e. demand for tech skill) is driven by the average burn rate of my cohort. Therefore, my secret BRBR trick is about “how to keep burn rate down while staying in the leading pack”.

Driven by lifestyle creep and FOMO in consumerism, if you go for the latest and finest (eg: luxury education), then your burn rate will suffer because the latest and branded top-of-line commercial offering tend to cost the same regardless of currency 🙁 which means as expensive as in USD.

— comparing between countries, In SG my Higher buffer rate lifts us to cashflow high ground , relative to the U.S.

— protection: “Buffer” is in the sense of energy-absorbing buffer stop i.e. 缓冲器

As bachelor, I used to hit buffer ratio like 3 to 5. Such a high BRBR was very reassuring, comforting and satisfying, almost like a big insurance protection and a line of defense.

In the grand scheme of things, this protection is only one of top 5 protection — See G5 Shields@family_livelihood #600w.

— FCF (free cash flow)  — I will say FCF is a related barometer, defined as the remaining amount like 80k vs 100k in those 2 examples.

“Disposable income” doesn’t capture the gist of FCF.

— cash flow high/low ground — How is it related to BRBR?

[1] Big ticket items are less visible in monthly BRBR , more visible and relevant to high/low ground.