##cautionary tale@speculative picks #mrna

My “system” features 3-10 minutes of quick due diligence each on a large number of new stocks. In this system, Speculative buy is quite possible. Result is unpredictable.

( In an alternative system, if you want a stability track record of stock picking, it can be improved slightly, by due diligence on CDY, dividend history, company size, analyst rating etc. )

— eg: WNS of India. Luckily I bought only $3.80
— eg: MRNA (Moderna) ..
— eg: CRBP

==== quick but not speculative
— eg: BGC partners .. I bought due to my “insider” knowledge. The stock remained underwater for years.
šŸ™‚ a bit of dividend, better than nothing.
— eg: BKCC (blackrock …).. I bought due to the Blackrock association
šŸ™‚ high CDY maintained through 2020
— eg: ICICI bank of India

 

 

infatuated_investors: rise/fall {buy

With recreational stock investing, impulsive trading is usually the precise phrase. [1] Sometimes, I feel “infatuation” describes a different perspective.

I have a mild (not extreme) but uncontrolled tendency to become infatuated with some products

  • eg blue-chip stocks with BUY recommendation .. If it’s a billion-dollar brand name, with a trec, I tend to brush aside the negative analysis.
  • xp (earliest): during my Tritech industrial attachment, I fell in love with some mutual funds and biked all the way to west coast to buy some mutual funds
  • xp: Between Year 3 and Year 4 in NUS, commodity trading cost me $11k due to infatuation
  • xp Allianz high yield fund — once took up SGD 100k of my fund. I didn’t make a loss but the return was much lower than initially perceived
  • xp Saxo FX option trading — I took on too many positions
  • xp (biggest) Cambodia GRR rental properties.

It’s easy to get carried away and underestimate the risks, the long wait, the severe liquidity limitation.

— 4 nights after pre-clear.. Most of my trading tend to happen on the first night … more stressful and less efficient than spread-out. Is it rational or should I change?

  • factor: better price on first night .. in about half the cases, first night has better (some would say no-worse) price than subsequent nights. See the “Rise” scenario.
  • factor: I usually set my own quota. In many cases first night I have used up most of it. This habit can be adjusted.
  • .. sugg: set a smaller quota in the beginning.

— Scenario: I spend many minutes selecting stocks, then due diligence on each including a desirable incremental amount, then pre-clear, then set aside nightly hours, but in the end only invest $10 to $20 over 4 nights šŸ™

I feel the most common reason is the “rise” scenario.
Another common reason is implementing the desired increment, esp. when I had a pre-existing position, and I use “too many” fractionals.. hard to keep track of the running total.

— Scenario: I often find a stock with positive rating + CDY + stable div history.Ā The more pre-trade effort invested, the more pressure I feel not to waste the effort.Ā I end up tweaking my order and trying to get a fill.

Therefore, the Kun.H style of deep analysis is dangerous for me, esp. when I want to buy dozens of names within a month.

I tend to enter a limit price somewhere low, and wait for hours to get a fill šŸ™ My new Suggestion .. fractional buy to release the tension. Also reduces the tcost of manual handling (different from babysitting an existing position)

— Scenario: After buying, the stock rises šŸ™‚ ……. I had sometimes given in to the urge to top-up at the now higher price, partly due to the pre-trade tcost (a sunk cost).Ā  This is an example of infactuation, but more infatuation than impulsive. See [1] above.Ā In hindsight, I think it’s usually better to stand aside. Quite likely the price would fall, and buying that same quantity would be better at the lower price.

Jolt: stand-aside habit interferes with my plan to increase U.S. eq allocation.

Realistic example: I had set out to invest “up to $100 or 2 shares” but have bought only $1 before price went up. The initial tiny purchase tends to but should not dictate what I can/can’t do now. If you feel justified to top-up, then buy fractional please.

— Scenario:Ā After buying, the stock falls šŸ™ ……. Paradoxically, i often rub my hands in glee, because “I can have more fun buying!” Still, it’s prudent to use fractional buys to release the emotional build-up.

ROTI — tend to become an issue. Beware!

## fraction@big-quantum stocks: drawbacks

When I buy IBM, CVX or OMC, I use small fractional orders of 0.1 share each, and build up my position. It felt fairly convenient, at least for liquid names, but really?Ā Let’s list the drawbacks of this approach

— drawback: defeats fire-n-forget .. Relying on limit orders (not these fractional market orders), I have a new habit of building my order book to buy at multiple price levels. This way, I can set up a series of entry-points and go to sleep.

As such, it’s a form of fire-n-forget. Without this, I’m forced to watch the market (not really for liquidation purpose) to acquire the stock.

— drawback: slow fill .. Fractional orders may take a while to execute, perhaps due to technical issues including liquidity. I think the order is not sent to exchange, but sent to some special liquidity pool.

I experienced this “slow execution” with Asia time-zone stocks like WNS and many pink sheet illiquid stocks.

##when2sell stock/ETF, as recreational investor

The question about when to sell a given stock is multi-faceted.Ā In recreational investing, the PnL is so far a minor factor, because my total committed amount is small.

Note the sunk tcost of research. Wiping out a stock 100% (too drastic?) would wipe out the learning. I would rather keep 0.1 share.

Sooner or later I would feel a pressure to sell some stocks. I wonder which j4 below would emerge as the first straw to break the camel’s back.

— j4 sell: need to free up cash ..

  • wipe clean .. RSP[$300], VTI, IEMG
  • reduce to smaller fraction .. DVY[$90],Ā  ARKK, Verizon [$60] ,
  • reduce to 1 share .. TAK, LFC, GE, SPHD/SPYD,

— j4 sell: I foresee a crash? Completely against my buy-n-forget principle.
— j4 sell: get rid of fractional shares, to improve liquidity
— j4 sell: reduce exposure to uncomfortable sectors ..
— j4 sell: when too many forgettable names (small positions) on my portfolio cause distraction and interfere with my navigation. Therefore sell-ALL to wipe out one name at a time.

  • CARA? 90% BUY
  • SWBI? still recommended BUY
  • TCPC? excellent DYOC
  • TXMD? 100% BUY
  • Unit? 7% DYOC

— possibly overbought , considering the low CDY.

  • BGC 1%
  • CARA 0%
  • GE[$100] 0.3%
  • GM [$150] below 1%
  • Ford[$30] 0.5% … keep
  • HTA[$100] 4% .. keep

However, most of these names were recommended BUY and often well-known brands, bought in four figures by “other investors”. In hindsight, I should have stood back.

==== How to choose which name to sell
— criteria: Not a DYOC cash cow .. I won’t give up
— criteria: Not a (for wipe-out) household brand like Macy’s or Baba
— criteria: not a “recommended BUY”
— criteria: hopefully not in a growth sector like bio-science
— criteria: Not a prized, cherished triple-jumper (i.e. more than 200% price gain) like APHA TROX IVZ RWT OGI

  • It has almost an equal chance of further appreciation as other stocks.
  • I want to keep it as justification for MOETF system
  • Also, the price increment provides a buffer against a down turn. The protection (does grow with the increment) is defined as the ratio of increment/currentPrice. For example a 90% protection means my position would go underwater iFF the price hits 90% loss i.e. my current return is 900%.

impulsive trading ] recreational investing #w1r3

https://zerodha.com/varsity/chapter/impulsive-trading-possible-causes-and-cures/ is concise. “Itā€™s important to remember that you must carefully monitor market conditions, and apply a trading method when it is likely to produce a profit. If a high probability setup doesnā€™t present itself, it is vital to stand aside.”

Affected asset classes: FX, but mostly stocks/ETF

— tcost for recreational investing .. Managing impulsive trading may have a non-trivial tcost. As recreational investors we need to accept the tcost. To a recreational investor, runaway tcost can be equal-to or bigger-than $cost as a concern. (As my confidence grow, financial risk-taking will grow.) For small orders, I need to strike a balance between two tendencies

  • ($cost) emotional, irrational, impulsive trading. This could also create tcost like distraction, lost sleep iFF the position becomes sizable.
  • (tcost) over-think, over-analyze, but no purchase in the end.

ā€” other speed humps and speed bumps

  • hump: One way to mitigate this infatuation is side-by-side comparative analysis.
  • Bump: Limiting the concentration risk and aggregate exposure is another control measure. Infatuated investors like to ā€œplay bigā€ and win big.
  • .. At Robinhood, the riskĀ  capital on each stock tend to be small.
  • hump: Also, listen to friends, family and advisors, including Kun.hu.
  • Bump: A cool-down period has proven helpful in my experience. Pre-clearance is the most effective antidote for impulsive trading. However, compliance breach threatens my job security and represents the most grave danger, worse than trading loss
  • hump: fractional investing is another antidote . Instead of “stand aside”, I can commit $5 to $20.
  • hump: Incremental build-up reduces the pressure, stress of due diligence.
  • .. one extremely form of incremental build-up invests up to USD 20 in an unfamiliar stock, just to monitor it.
  • .. YES I should learn to embrace small positions on a stock after a 5min pre-trade effort (pre-clear, documentation..). Even though roti is low, this stand-aside is suitable for recreational investing.

minimize cost@acquisition: 守ę Ŗ待兔

Suppose my sister and I both have 5 shares of a cash cow like O:US, but each at a different cost of acquisition. As a consequence,

  • Our DYOC would be different due to that c@a
  • Our margin@safety is different due to that c@a
  • Our dreamland prospect is different due to that c@a

So how do we control the c@a? Most people (eg: LZ.Yu) focus on market timing. Somehow, value investors don’t. In my view, Value-Investing is less about buying low, but mostly about.. buying high only after due diligence and always followed by a retrospective analysis aimed at learning lessons and improving cost@acquisition. Buying high due to impulse or infatuation has no ground and is regrettable.

DCA is mindless robo-investing. DRIP is same on a smaller scale. I believe their c@a is inferior.

— tip: beware of the tendency of impulsive trader and infatuated trader
— tip: commission .. is crucial in my “system” using small orders. So I put aside Kun.h’s advice to “accept commission costs as negligible”.
— tip: fractional trading .. has become crucial in my “system”, esp. when price moves after my buy. See impulsive trader
— tip: use limit orders patiently sitting away from the market price (守ę Ŗ待兔), esp. for illiquid, slow-moving stocks. When the price moves, it tends to jump.

I believe many HFT shops deliberately use limit orders and exchange rebates.

I think Booth’s DFA used limit orders on small cap stocks to create a c@a advantage.


How about tcost@acquisition for a recreational investor ? LG2

stable div^ fractional@growth_stock

If I must choose Between stable dividends and fractional shares of growth stocks, I still favor stocks showing stable dividend.

Unlike most small investors, I want “cash cow assets” producing dependable current income for several financial needs like family support, and to supplement my salary, and enhance brbr .Ā Rental property is the archetype of cash cow. Even when NAV (resale valuation) drops, rental income keeps coming in. In equities, Utility stocks are the closest thing.

With the hot growth stocks, I indirectly hold a lot of fractional shares via the funds I bought. One share of an ETF or $1000 of a mufu hold lots of fractional shares, due to the fundamental nature of these products.

Some examples

  • WNS
  • Twitter
  • Moderna
  • Baba, JD.com

— Drawbacks with low-dividend growth stocks, in bad times (or good times)
Background: I prefer to periodically cash out some small (fractional) quantity of shares for the reasons stated in the beginning. Fractional liquidation might be comparable (a poor cousin?) to periodic dividend payout.

  • when a growth stock has fallen but I need some cash … it’s hard to convince myself to liquidate 1.1%. No such agony with a dividend stock, whose business model supports stream of dividend, which meets my financial needs.
  • liquidating a productive asset .. psychologically or effectively, each time we would be liquidating some 1.1% of a productive asset. It feels stupid, unwise, and adds to the reluctance and burden of due diligence. In contrast, dividend stocks are cash cows and we never need the agony to kill the cow to get the milk. Echoed on [[Living off Dividends in Retirement]]
  • one of the key drawbacks is the loss of sleep and focus at work. (See buy-n-forgetā†’ sleep]peace, focus@work: avoid 0-div ) This risk is reduced by consistent dividends, which helps me achieve buy-n-forget.
  • due diligence @ each sell= burden …. You have to endure due diligence each time, regarding when and how to cash out some amount. The current income thus produced is unstable, inconvenient, stressful….If you happen to be busy with work, family member, illness or any major decision, then you don’t want the extra job with the due diligence. Echoed on [[Living off Dividends in Retirement]]
  • timing/window …. each time we worry about missing the best window to liquidate some (albeit small ) quantity of this grow stock.
  • Tax Lot accounting …. is a non-trivial “extra job”.
  • Fractional shares don’t support limit orders. Some growth stocks are too big to sell in one whole share.
  • pre-clearance .. each time you need a pre-clearance. If you forget it, you run the risk of compliance violations