##[22]wise consumer: hallmarks

— showcase of HallmarkA: why avoid branded colleges
If a branded top-quality middle school costs $20k/Y over 2Y, then many would be able to afford it, but could the brand give the parents esteem for decades?

In contrast, a branded college does make the parents proud for decades, and makes the graduate stand out in over-crowded dating markets, but look at the price tag. If the 70k/Y price tag is clearly /affordable/ to you, then you won’t need to be a “wise consumer”. For most families, however, 300k over 4Y is too high, so these families need to assess the benefit/cost.

Those with insider info often realize the benefit is not so high.

— (hallmarkA) At a fancy restaurant you taste something very nice (and expensive) . Later you find out it is similar to a cheap supermarket item that you have never tried.

The fancy restaurant version is subtly different (therefore expensive) but to the first time taster, the supermarket version is equally delicious. Even if company pays, I would still prefer the cheaper version.

— (hallmarkI) mass market .. How relevant (to me) are mass market statistics? Many mass market surveys are increasingly irrelevant to me, as they reflect ordinary people’s
* commute conditions
* work hours
* reported work stress, burn-out
* workout, nutrition, BMI
* savings, retirement plann, mtg, rental burden

These so-called “mass market profiles” are increasingly different from my profile. Therefore my buying priorities are different, too. Am in an exclub defined by myself, not based on FOMO.

— (hallmarkI) exclub/miswanting..

Property agents, car salesmen, college admission offices, luxury product sales/marketing teams … make huge efforts to impress on us the differences between the haves vs the the have-nots.

Some of them in their unspoken hint are careful to position you, the prospective buyer, as above average in the local market but somewhere below average among “my clients”. They like to describe their existing clients as filthy rich, indirectly setting role models for the rest of us.

That’s a form of mental manipulation and brainwash. However rich you are, there are always some “existing clients” who are better off! Exclub.

Now in my late 40s it’s becoming increasingly clear that those “haves” have acquired a lot of white elephants. For example,

  • car is not an asset.
  • wines, fancy electronics are not always good for their children’s wellbeing
  • branded college is not necessary, but a conducive environment is.

— Two hallmarks of a wise consumer

  1. hallmarkI (vague): knowing what things are truly important to yourself.
  2. hallmarkA: knowing what unpopular/unconventional Alternatives are Actually Acceptable to yourself

Some examples that help explain the hallmarks

  • [AI] eg: free books
  • [A] eg: refuse to buy sports merchandize. Use simple substitutes instead.
  • [AI] eg: avoid branded sports shoes. Try the low-cost shoes and trust your own feeling of comfort
  • [A] eg: slightly dented fruits

HDB rental demand: decline over50Y #Zeng+Felicia

— Felicia cautioned me .. HDB rental demand from foreigners could fluctuate in the long run. In the U.S. rental market, half the tenants are local Americans. Singapore rental market is more dependent on foreigners (high home ownership rate), so she sees more risk in my HDB rental model.

Why hold on so tight even after relocation to U.S.?
* low maintenance
* valuation volatility managed by PAP

When I explained to her why I won’t sell my HDB even while I’m settled in the U.S., I realized my deep bias and sky-high confidence in the PAP and SG economy. Over the long term, my confidence would be put to the test. Compared to China, U.S. and SEAsia, I still feel far more confident about SG HDB property. This is a heavy bias, not based on enough data. Once I live through and understand U.S. rental property risks, I might conclude that SG rental market is low maintenance but low yield and not-so-stable.

— Sheng.Zeng’s views:

  • The entire SG economy has traditionally relied on foreign workers. If you worry about HDB rental demand till 2064 (age 90), then you have bigger things to worry about, including SGD strength, CPI inflation, medical inflation, cpfLife… all of which are more impactful than HDB rental yield.
  • Q1: Why must you keep the HDB flat? Legacy? I now feel leasehold is not the best form.
  • Q2: What do you need the rental income for, exactly? If for a modest retirement [CRBR $3k] you don’t need this income, then no real worries about “decline”! If the decline represents a sub-optimal return, then there are many sub-optimal returns in my career.
  • Now I think 50/50 chance I would treasure this “extra” disposable income. In that case we can consider various ways to cash out. Lease buy-back or downgrade to a smaller home
  • Jolt: So taking a step back, the preoccupation with HDB rental yield is perhaps a self-imposed, /hallucinatory/ dependency. My retirement doesn’t depend on it .. Zeng’s wisdom.

43R: location is key #decent tenants

I feel location is the real deciding factor of rental demand. I think I really need to stay close to the rail stations. Deepak CM said the same. Location could mean 10% vs 50% vacancy rate.

Dropping your asking price may not work. Bargain hunter tenants might be fine people, but there’s a higher probability of problem people.

The low-rent tenants often don’t have a car. I guess 10 minutes walk is the max. Most won’t use a bike.

Streets need to be relatively clean and safe.

Close to park? not important to most tenants.

GS shares^401k target-date #todo

(search keywords: Goldman)

My 6 shares of GS stock is accessible on computershare.com. Pays quarterly dividend.

–Roth 401k:

About $20k, invested in a target date fund targeting 2040, probably described on https://www.gsam.com/content/gsam/us/en/advisors/fund-center/fund-finder/gs-target-date-2040-portfolio.html#activeTab=performance&scType=Retirement%20Shares

You can redeem or “take a distribution” at end of  any month but there are many tax implications.

Make sure address on GS HR direct is a US address, otherwise you pay more withholding tax. To change address you must call HR direct.  If address is in US,  then withholding 20%. If outside, 30%. At tax filing time, you may pay a different rate.

Regardless of address, if you redeem before age 59.5, IRS charges a penalty of 10% of the total redemption amount. Rationale is, GS contributed dollar matching into the 401k so 401k is designed for retirement.

Q: how to check my balance?

Q: which funds promise highest windfall?
I feel U.S. equity funds tend to beat all other funds incl international, comm and bond funds. I don’t want to analyze why

There might be a monthly fee around $6.50

I’m entitled to a free paper copy of my statements — 1877-45GSHCM

well-positioned to capture US surge + well-protected@@

S$1900 + 2100 + 1700 LM x3
S$2100 Fidelity America A USD?
S$1400 Threadneedle (Lux) US Contrarian Core Eq AU USD?
S$1400 Blackrock World Healthscience A2 USD – is 80% US-centric.
S$1500 Allianz IncGro – 90% US-centric

Current exposure (except HY)? About 12k (higher than all other countries).

Q: Should I reduce or increase my exposure?

I feel given my USD cash position, Increase.

I’m fearful of a crash, but my other eq positions would probably crash together.

Should I diversify within the US space, like some
healthcare and tech funds (typically US-centric),
gold mining,
aggr
financial,

…. Ideally, a large number of uncorrelated small holdings.