For each overseas rEstate project, there are a few miletones, each with serious hazards/risks
- project completion .. Hazards can cause lengthy delays (BGC [1]). Some unreliable developer can disappear (RitzG5). MIH is a good example [2]
- vicinity development can take decades. Until that vague “milestone”, your building might be the only decent building in the area. No jobs, no parks, no retail, no “buzz“
- renovation completion .. furnishing, fixing problems. Some units are “completed” but unusable.
- land title registered .. Risks? legal risks
- mtg approved .. Risks? poor mtg rate or no banks
- finding a local agent and negotating the terms .. hazard? Some locations have no agent at all.
- first tenant signed.. hazards? May not find anyone at all for years. Perhaps oversupply in the location. Perhaps the location doesn’t have the buzz of Uptown.
- Milesstone-9: 1Y probation completed with the agent .. Risks? Many owner-agent relationships don’t work out.
- ^^ One of these milestones may appear to be too trivial to be a milestone, but I have seen investors getting stuck at each of these things, always due to some serious hazard.
FHR [forward hazard rate] := the aggregate amount (count and magnitude) of potential derailers [swans, missteps] per year. Usually we ignore the per-year part [4]. In the beginning we face the highest hazard rate i.e. many things could fall on us or derail our train. At each milestone, our total (forward) hazard rate improves, as uncertianties become well-known and familiar risks.
BDYK [Better the Devil You Know] is a key observation/experience in FHR.
[1] For example, the BGC asset has survived many hazards and is now a much safer asset than it was in 2015, therefore worth a BDYK-adjusted SGD 300k, even if we ignore (or don’t know) the market value changes.
[2] MIH — When I first paid down payment, FHR was huge and off-putting (show stopper to many investors) largely due to credit risk of an unknown developer. After completion, the biggest hazard was removed, and the asset is now worth a BDYK-adjusted USD 200k.
[4] When do we actually use per-year yardstick? In the stable phase. FHR in the per-year sense captures the amount of headaches, stress, derailers (of my bubble)
Does FHR ever worsen? Only in rare swan events like covid19. This exception proves the norm that FHR always improves until Milestone-9 or somewhere nearby.
— paradox of rEstate concentration risk
If you buy in 9 countries you are bound to hate one of them, often due to hazards. It’s then logical to exit that country and increase concentration in the best of those 9 countries.
On a less macro level, once you are familiar with a given country or developer, FHR would be better than X years ago (when you were unfamiliar). It’s now logical to increase concentration with (eg) MIH.
This “logical” allocation ought to be balanced with the (equally logical) need for diversification.
Look at U.S. or China rEstate investors. Most of them stay in home country. Zero diversification by country.
— positive cash flow -> self-sustainable i.e. the highest level of success.
Q: As of 2014, when we heard of SG investors flocking to an overseas “opportunity”, how many percent of them would reach Milestone-9 of positive cashflow with a reliable local rental agent?
A: Below 30%. Possibly 20%. It’s nearly impossible to achieve positive cashflow, if you have a mortgage with P+I. (Biggest problem is P).
Many investors would ask about my appreciation margin. For them self-sustainability is not the highest level of success. I don’t care about their priorities. I don’t even know the valuation, but I’m sure it’s better than my initial. What’s important to me is carefree and positive cashflow, not windfall appreciation.
— appreciation .. I feel after you can demonstrate that your unit has a proven rental yield, you can get a higher valuation than before completion.
This is logical, but many logical predictions don’t happen. I can list many reasons.
FHR has shown a real improvement. Many of the big question marks and big clouds are cleared.
— Overseas rEstate .. is the main focus of this blogpost. Local projects are much easier for investors.
==== Fwd Hazard Rate, without the “per-year” part, is also applicable beyond pff
immigration offenses and criminal record affects a career more in the earlier stage of a longer career. The FWR depends on the “remaining lease”.
FHR affects a marriage the most soon after babies are born and improves as kids become less dependent on the continuing marriage of their parents.