Tag: t_G9StockRule

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steps@buy`@Rbh #2graphs

Posted on by tiger40490

 

[? = questionable, less reliable metric ]

These instructions/reminders need to be explicit, otherwise in a hurry I will miss the “obvious” hidden meanings.

  • pre-clearance quantity not to be exceeded
  • .. ! .. keep distraction in-check
  • —- due diligence before pre-clear
  • check my existing position .. in profit or at loss? If apparently at loss, then remember Robinhood PnL ignores dividend incomes.
  • check analysts .. (either CNN or tipranks) to avoid buying high.
  • check dividend yield … double-check that dividend has not dried up !
  • .. for a long-term div star, verify on macrotrends
  • check long-term graphs on macrotrends or rbh
  • optionally check 3-month price trend
  • (I need 2 browser tabs beside the tanbinvest and rbh tabs. Consider using multiple laptops.)

— total due diligence tcost before + after preclearance should minimize to 3 minutes if dollar amount < $20

Penny stocks deserve less due diligence, provided you buy one share only. But nowadays I tend to buy more, since the 3D window is too short.

fractional buys deserve less due diligence due to smaller dollar amount

Familiar names (not necessarily blue chips) require less due diligence and could incur lower tcost

 

##when2sell stock/ETF, as recreational investor

Posted on by tiger40490

The question about when to sell a given stock is multi-faceted. In recreational investing, the PnL is so far a minor factor, because my total committed amount is small.

Note the sunk tcost of research. Wiping out a stock 100% (too drastic?) would wipe out the learning. I would rather keep 0.1 share.

Sooner or later I would feel a pressure to sell some stocks. I wonder which j4 below would emerge as the first straw to break the camel’s back.

— j4 sell: need to free up cash ..

  • wipe clean .. RSP[$300], VTI, IEMG
  • reduce to smaller fraction .. DVY[$90],  ARKK, Verizon [$60] ,
  • reduce to 1 share .. TAK, LFC, GE, SPHD/SPYD,

— j4 sell: I foresee a crash? Completely against my buy-n-forget principle.
— j4 sell: get rid of fractional shares, to improve liquidity
— j4 sell: reduce exposure to uncomfortable sectors ..
— j4 sell: when too many forgettable names (small positions) on my portfolio cause distraction and interfere with my navigation. Therefore sell-ALL to wipe out one name at a time.

  • CARA? 90% BUY
  • SWBI? still recommended BUY
  • TCPC? excellent DYOC
  • TXMD? 100% BUY
  • Unit? 7% DYOC

— possibly overbought , considering the low CDY.

  • BGC 1%
  • CARA 0%
  • GE[$100] 0.3%
  • GM [$150] below 1%
  • Ford[$30] 0.5% … keep
  • HTA[$100] 4% .. keep

However, most of these names were recommended BUY and often well-known brands, bought in four figures by “other investors”. In hindsight, I should have stood back.

==== How to choose which name to sell
— criteria: Not a DYOC cash cow .. I won’t give up
— criteria: Not a (for wipe-out) household brand like Macy’s or Baba
— criteria: not a “recommended BUY”
— criteria: hopefully not in a growth sector like bio-science
— criteria: Not a prized, cherished triple-jumper (i.e. more than 200% price gain) like APHA TROX IVZ RWT OGI

  • It has almost an equal chance of further appreciation as other stocks.
  • I want to keep it as justification for MOETF system
  • Also, the price increment provides a buffer against a down turn. The protection (does grow with the increment) is defined as the ratio of increment/currentPrice. For example a 90% protection means my position would go underwater iFF the price hits 90% loss i.e. my current return is 900%.

stock-trading: G3 concerns

Posted on by tiger40490

stock-trading: G4 concerns

  • — the high-level concerns
  • #22 distraction/firewall .. when I want to focus on localSys, coding drill etc
    • babysitt .. some stock positions have become crying babies
    • Robinhood proved very distractive. It once became substance addiction similar to the wrong-time temptation
    • Sugg — Avoid distraction due to frequent trading. Favor buy-n-hold.
    • buy_n_forget is more in-depth
  • #33 aggregate DYOC ..  3% would be unimpressive. However, it’s irrational/unfair to look at aggregate — better to look at the income ptf
  • #44 ROTI .. (see section below) too much time spent but total dollar amount is not worthwhile. Need to invest more to justify the effort
  • #11 paper loss .. when I need to access the cash. I think this is #1 concern for other investors but not me.
    • Diversification — R.Xia pointed out that if you buy many dividend stocks and some fail, then one of them might soar high enough to compensate for the other unrealized losses.
  • #1 compliance .. No one has 100% job security. (No driver has 0% fatality risk.). Compliance breaches (esp. repeated) would aggravate my job insecurity.
    • Not catastrophizing. Risk is real.
    • #11 concern: bonus cut .. $10k cut would not be a surprise. The dollar amount is likely bigger than the “paper loss” item below.
  • #8 Rbh: investor safety

— ROTI:
For a few years I spent tons of hours on FSM cherry-picking, but underwhelming ROTI, perhaps due to annual fees eroding the return.

== compliance
Q1: what’s my chance of surviving 2021? 90%
Q2: what’s my chance of surviving 2022? 70%
But the above answers are too rosy and short-sighted. A black swan event like compliance breach could cut the Q2 answer to 50%

I told a counsellor that job security depends on 1) company/industry profitability 2) Larry’s perception of me[5]. In a perfect storm of cost-cutting + my poor performance, then repeated compliance breaches would aggravate my job insecurity.

[5] With other managers (trigger-happy, like deMunk), firm performance would be a secondary factor.

— bird crashing a Boeing747″..  There are countless small hazards (bird) or small errors like 3dangerous habits #cross`street@bike or disobeying a PATH police, but why do they have such severe consequences? No idea. Anyway, below are some protective shields for the compliance risk. (Note there are several similar lists like ##[19]random ffree-derailers #resilience and random list@protections):

  • better performance, improved reputation with manager
  • #9 government-provided social safety net.. some people really lean on it and bet on it. I would say someday I may, too. No shame.
  • #7 brbr, Fuller wealth
  • #5 resilient family
  • #3/6 career longevity .. I rank this shield very high at this age, but what about age 52?
  • #1 wellness

t_moetf ^ t_G**eqRules

Posted on by tiger40490

Some overlap is likely.

  • t_moetf — is more my own system as a unique system from other investors’ systems, such as ETF or deep analysis. More abstract, more conceptual.
  • t_G***eqRule — is less about my system, more about individual buy/sell rules of thumb.
  • .. After thin->thick->thin, among the dozens of “principles” of stock investing, these are my top N. I want to maintain very few rules. More rules can get overcomplicated.