[21]long trough: Nsdq(17Y), SP500(7Y),gold,,

 


Xp: equity mutual funds — about 3 out of 10 funds get stuck for 5Y+
Xp: Majestic Village

Q: how long was the longest trough in the Nasdaq100?
A: 17Y according to https://www.investopedia.com/timeline-of-stock-market-crashes-5217820 and https://www.macrotrends.net/1320/nasdaq-historical-chart. Corresponding trough was 7Y in SP500.

On the basis laid out in big-ticket items pre55, here’s a follow-up question:

Q: if the amount of money is not-neded (i.e. I don’t have a need for the amount sunk in), then Why did I hate long trough in a liquid asset like stocks and gold?

This quesiton underlies my deep-rooted subconscious resistance to long-term commitments such as endowments.

A: I need the sunk-in fund to provide more current disposable income (for better commute, enrichment programs etc), higher brbr buffer, exclub(?), windfall profit(?). I hate to have my fund locked up while giving up these optial but “nice” things

Reality check — most of the time the “not-needed” condition is not 100% satisfied i.e. I do have something of a “need” for the amount. This reminder is very relevant for gold, and also (not for long-trough) HDB home upgrade.

infatuated_investors: rise/fall {buy

With recreational stock investing, impulsive trading is usually the precise phrase. [1] Sometimes, I feel “infatuation” describes a different perspective.

I have a mild (not extreme) but uncontrolled tendency to become infatuated with some products

  • eg blue-chip stocks with BUY recommendation .. If it’s a billion-dollar brand name, with a trec, I tend to brush aside the negative analysis.
  • xp (earliest): during my Tritech industrial attachment, I fell in love with some mutual funds and biked all the way to west coast to buy some mutual funds
  • xp: Between Year 3 and Year 4 in NUS, commodity trading cost me $11k due to infatuation
  • xp Allianz high yield fund — once took up SGD 100k of my fund. I didn’t make a loss but the return was much lower than initially perceived
  • xp Saxo FX option trading — I took on too many positions
  • xp (biggest) Cambodia GRR rental properties.

It’s easy to get carried away and underestimate the risks, the long wait, the severe liquidity limitation.

— 4 nights after pre-clear.. Most of my trading tend to happen on the first night … more stressful and less efficient than spread-out. Is it rational or should I change?

  • factor: better price on first night .. in about half the cases, first night has better (some would say no-worse) price than subsequent nights. See the “Rise” scenario.
  • factor: I usually set my own quota. In many cases first night I have used up most of it. This habit can be adjusted.
  • .. sugg: set a smaller quota in the beginning.

— Scenario: I spend many minutes selecting stocks, then due diligence on each including a desirable incremental amount, then pre-clear, then set aside nightly hours, but in the end only invest $10 to $20 over 4 nights 🙁

I feel the most common reason is the “rise” scenario.
Another common reason is implementing the desired increment, esp. when I had a pre-existing position, and I use “too many” fractionals.. hard to keep track of the running total.

— Scenario: I often find a stock with positive rating + CDY + stable div history. The more pre-trade effort invested, the more pressure I feel not to waste the effort. I end up tweaking my order and trying to get a fill.

Therefore, the Kun.H style of deep analysis is dangerous for me, esp. when I want to buy dozens of names within a month.

I tend to enter a limit price somewhere low, and wait for hours to get a fill 🙁 My new Suggestion .. fractional buy to release the tension. Also reduces the tcost of manual handling (different from babysitting an existing position)

— Scenario: After buying, the stock rises 🙂 ……. I had sometimes given in to the urge to top-up at the now higher price, partly due to the pre-trade tcost (a sunk cost).  This is an example of infactuation, but more infatuation than impulsive. See [1] above. In hindsight, I think it’s usually better to stand aside. Quite likely the price would fall, and buying that same quantity would be better at the lower price.

Jolt: stand-aside habit interferes with my plan to increase U.S. eq allocation.

Realistic example: I had set out to invest “up to $100 or 2 shares” but have bought only $1 before price went up. The initial tiny purchase tends to but should not dictate what I can/can’t do now. If you feel justified to top-up, then buy fractional please.

— Scenario: After buying, the stock falls 🙁 ……. Paradoxically, i often rub my hands in glee, because “I can have more fun buying!” Still, it’s prudent to use fractional buys to release the emotional build-up.

ROTI — tend to become an issue. Beware!

##eg: time well-spent@investment research

  • property research has the highest tangible value due to the quantum
  • Jill’s private equities — I spent many hour-long sessions before the German investment, until I felt comfortable
  • energy12
  • life/term insurance products in Singapore

negative eg: FSM — research is way too time-consuming and the funds are mediocre and simply lack quality. Most of them are unspectacular, so anyone spending hours and hours every week comparing them would eventually realize these funds are all very similar. Very few can beat SP500.

 

some@%%non-performing investments@FSM

Q: Did I make the mistake of investing too little in good funds?
A: I don’t think so. I usually start with $100 to test the water. Then I increase to $500 or $1k. I am cautiously open to bigger exposures.

— #1 Blackrock gold USD
Mistake — too big. invested 5k, when 5k was the minimum
Mistake#2 — when I had a chance to exit, I sold 40% only. So the big exposure is my own deliberate choice and calculated risk-taking.
Luckily I don’t need the USD so I could wait.
Long term trend is poor. I was fully aware of it when buying. Calculated risk.
Motivation: this is one of the few hedges out there for DJ

–Parvest Bd Best Selection Wld Em USD
Mistake — too big. Invested U$1k. Luckily I don’t need the USD so I could wait.
I think as a bond fund it won’t drop too low.
EM are suffering, esp. the heaviest allocation countries – Brazil, Russia
Graph is too short.

— Indonesia
Mistake — too big. Invested U$1k. Should have used RSP
However, graph is reasonable.
Motivation: diversify
Luckily I don’t need the USD so I could wait.
Performance is bad for many years.

— Latam
Mistake — too big. Invested U$1k.
However, graph is not too bad, not all the way down.

— Japan (recovered🙂
Mistake — too big. Invested in 2 funds, USD 1k each.
Luckily I don’t need the USD so I could wait.
Mistake — one (Schroder ISF Jap Eq Alp A Acc USD) of my 2 funds did much worse than the other(Eastspring Inv Jap Dynamic USD A)
Japan has potential and did recover in 2014.

— Legg Mason WA EmMkt Bond A SGD H (mdis) plus
Mistake — should have used USD. Invested S$1k
However, graph is reasonable, not all the way down.
Motivation — monthly div, but reinvested 🙁
I think as a bond fund it won’t drop too low.