make every dollar work hard4u@@ #SBH

See also priorities in stock trading


It is Perfectionist and unrealistic to make every dollar work hard for us. Many experienced investors (few are wise investors and even fewer are real “experts”) stay invested, having very small amount of idle/unproductive/unemployed cash, like 12x monthly expenses. See https://tanbinvest.dreamhosters.com/24728/12x-monthly-expenses/

For decades, I have lots of USD or SGD sitting in bank accounts earning below 0.5% pa. asset%allocation: imprecise snapshot=best shows my cash allocation at around 15%, much higher than equities. Used to be 50%. I have long accepted low return in exchange for “excess liquidity“.

I didn’t complain. I usually complain only when I lose capital or lose liquidity (as defined in liquidity[def]: how I gauge illiquid products) .

* memorable eg: I remember the professional analysis of AllianzIncomeProtector. The annualized return turned out to be very poor. (I think cpfLife may also show a low annualized return, despite the high DYOC.) I probably don’t mind that low return. However, I do mind the horrible liquidity[1].

* memorable eg: Buffett’s IBM “mistake” shows an embarrassing but positive return on this IBM investment. Not spectacular but no disaster either.

I think these are some of the key reasons I don’t see myself as an “aggressive investor”. So not every dollar (sometimes not even half the dollars) in my possession is working hard. When my cash “productivity rate” did hit 90% (i.e. 90% of my spare cash deployed into /productive/ assets), I sometimes had my fingers burned:

  • In 2021 I deployed all my spare cash to FSM bond funds. About 80k is currently stuck.
  • I had a 150k position in the supposedly safe Allianz HY fund. Stuck for years. I lost liquidity and lost capital, but in terms of e2etr [end-to-end total return], probably up to 1 to 5% loss only.
  • I only invested about 40k with Jill, in contrast to 6-figure commitment of other investors. We lost capital.

— If I carry a 250k mtg at 2.5 ppa, but have 250k idle cash, then I would feel the pressure to make the idle cash more productive.

— Jolt: SBH in HDB.. why I can easily save 100k but won’t spend 100k on a new HDB? I wanted the 100k to be more productive, working harder to generate returns.

After Susan’s discussion, I feel 100k invested in a SlightlyBetterHome is different from “excess liquidity” mentioned above. This 100k will be non-productive for decades 🙁 In fact, part of it is cost (reno/fees), rather than investments. The rmSelf tends to neglect the xpSelf.

  • Investments are the focus of the evaluative rmSelf;
  • Those costs were incurred to provide experienced wellbeing of the xpSelf.

blind_FOMO[def]: TJ.Lin@Chn young techie

A powerful concept and pattern, in search of a shorter name.. like blind_FOMO, as a specific form of breakaway.

Opening example: For many big-ticket products, a novice would often buy the market leading branded version (paying a premium), because he doesn’t know his own needs. FOMO is a suitable descriptor.

— the Main example of this blogpost: TianJue is the first to point this out, when I shared with him the paradox of China’s bachelor tech professionals. See latency无底洞

As soon as the bachelor enrolls at a Beijing/Shanghai college, he would face the same decision that some of his cohort has already decided on — “Will I end up working in 一线 city like 北上广深 ?”. If yes, then the home purchase looks inevitable and requires a whole-family effort starting from Year 1. .. Wrong priority.

I asked TJ “if the price is out of reach for my family, then what about renting?” I don’t remember his response, but perhaps 1 in 3 bachelors could realize “…beyond my capacity” and put away the decision. For the remainder, buying is nearly infeasible but question is “Will I regret if I don’t buy, and rent or work in a Tier2 city?” The more peers make the early decision to buy, the more peer pressure on the helpless bachelor to follow the herd instinct. It’s interesting how semi-consciously we filter our peer group and exclude bulk of the local population.

TJ also pointed out that dating game puts huge pressure on the bachelor. In my younger days, I had to work hard over decades to improve my /status/ in the mating competition. When I first had kids, I didn’t believe the opinions of those likes WQ.Luo. I was driven to improve housing, education resources… for my kids, engaging in the arms race with millions of fellow parents. Similarly, the inflation fear was a widespread brainwash. Medical cost inflation fear was driven by my own parents… All of these “struggles” are taught to every young men as part of Chinese enculturation. As a consequence, I felt perhaps $3M would be needed.

Those around me who gave up on ffree were seen as _quitters_. These are the individuals who decided to keep working till retirement age, buy a house of same size as the peers, save as much as the peers, save up for college funding as the peers… all without a ffree goal. They are seen as not trying hard enough.  Clearly my choices are a breakaway from these “quitters”.

TJ then concluded that by my age, I have figured out my real needs and real priorities. I guess that’s a SelfKnowledgeAdvantage

— eg: the ivy-league fixation + SDXQ fixation among the Chinese middle-class in U.S.
Many immigrants seem to assume that schools rated below 8 are unacceptable… Fear of unknown. They follow their peers [i.e. fellow immigrants] and reject these mainstream choices.

Kyle and I discussed our “insider insight“. With this insight, I hope we can live free of the huge financial burden/obligation. In such a case, I would count myself lucky to understand my own needs.

When I told my father that my kids don’t have to enter any college, he said he would be proud of my son if he gets into Community colleges or Polytechnics. Heroic words of wisdom.

— eg: retirement planning .. Many younger Singaporeans seem unsure how much they would need in retirement. Some follow the marketing propaganda, dismiss the CPF-life amount as inadequate, and take on the huge burden of “SGD 1M nest egg”.

TJ pointed out that by my age, I know my own needs.

— eg: safe European cars .. I put a high value on their extra safety level,  exactly because I don’t really understand the risk. TJ.Lin said the probability of preventable harm from dangerous accident is actually very very low.

— eg: if unsure, buy the dominant brand. In the 1990’s you won’t be at fault if you buy IBM, even if it’s not the best choice in hindsight.
My first smartphone was a Samsung… not “better” than the cheaper Vivo, Oppo, Huawei phones I have used.

1998bachelor’s fin-health #tuxedo

update:


The trigger/inspiration — discussion with Jun.Z’s son, and other recent graduates.

In 1997 or 1998, I met an NUS EEE graduate one year above me. In his sleeveless tuxedo, he was running his own tiny company with a young employee. He had been doing that since graduation, and had never worked for any employer. In hindsight I assume he was unmarried and staying with his parents.

He was the first among my peers to make this breakaway observation:

“In this place and at this time, NUS engineering graduates like us can always find a job as long as we aren’t picky. But In this place and at this time,  we don’t really need to worry about livelihood, so why do we need a salary in the first place?”

His words were backed by his action, which left a lasting impression on me. (Among other things, I started watching my Fuller Wealth growing progressively towards 20Y, and later quit my job.)

On the bright side, my cash flow self-assurance in my 20’s was not based on exclub but based on FullerWealth, brbr, benchmark to median household income.. all valid criteria in the 2020s.

On the less-bright side, there was a pervasive [1] but largely unfounded, hearsay /apprehension/ among my cohort of recent graduates.

  • mate selection .. is ALL about exclub
  • home purchase .. 3BR needed, according to peer pressure .. “2BR won’t be enough for a growing family”.
  • .. In Chinese cities, this pressure was/is even worse than Singapore
  • parenthood .. SGD 1M/child according to peer pressure, including some $300k “needed” for college
  • .. In U.S. middle-class, the college price tag is even worse than Singapore
  • medical .. my mom said something like $100k (四十万)
  • inflation (+retirement) .. threatened to shrink each (saved) dollar by half every 20Y or so.
  • — my career worries as a young techie
  • “My income is not rising as fast as my cohort” .. but based on what data?
  • “My skillset is not broad enough. I’m boxed in and have a single narrow skillset compared to my cohort…” but who?
  • not learning enough, not competent enough
  • short runway .. by age 30 I am expected to be competent, independent, possibly a team lead
  • long struggle ahead, over 40Y
  • too many career choices… “Is this domain right for me? Will I regret?”

Q: how has my idea of livelihood changed since?
A: first hand experience convinced me how little I actually need in each area, in terms of livelihood. I now see those second-hand beliefs are absurd and illogical. This is MY breakaway from the conventional wisdom on livelihood. In terms of livelihood, it’s somewhat similar to that tuxedo guy’s breakaway observation.

As I told Jun.Z’s son, At that time I had basically no savings (before I started saving like crazy.)

Q: how has my livelihood (cash flow high/low ground) changed since?
A: My living standard has increased with a growing family size, but my brbr has remained healthy. Beside having a family and growing old, my #1 biggest change since 1998 is my career longevity [including a projection of lifelong cumulative salary].

You may say “Hey, you have limited evidence of your career longevity projection. Countless derailers could pop-up.” I think differently. Rather than naming some achievement, some milestone as the “#1 change since 1998”, I pick career longevity. The future is more important than the past.

[1] So widespread and profound that it was impossible to stand firm and unaffected… 三人成虎. Even today, I need to stand resolute against a similar brainwash about branded college, SDXQ, home upsizing. As discussed with Tanko, one major misstep (mis-punch on my punch card) would cost my current comfortable ezlife on my cash flow high ground.

bold investor #peer comparison

I feel adventurous in many of my investment decisions. In contrast, out of 100 people in my age group, majority probably invest in standard products like 401k, REITs, ETF/mutual funds, CD, or stock markets.

  • SEA rental properties
  • German high-yield PE
  • Brazil high-yield PE
  • AsiaProperty high-yield PE
  • Energy12 PE

Do these decisions make me a risk-seeking investor? I think so.

— I need excess liquidity; I don’t need every dollar working hard for me. (See https://tanbinvest.dreamhosters.com/24246/make-your-money-work-hard4u/) This makes me a risk-averse investor.

needed$3mil 4ffree: what changed since2015 #JL.Yuan

In a 15 Nov 2015 mail to JL.Yuan, I wrote ..

“Financial freedom/security is the term you used. Many people ask how much bank balance would provide  the freedom/security, and our answers are usually disappointing, like 3 million… I feel it’s more healthy, more stable, and long-sighted to shift my focus to career longevity.”

In a 23 Apr 2021 follow-up mail, I observed that my position on financial freedom/security… has changed since Nov 2015. My position has become more grounded, based on real observations, less on hearsay and marketing propaganda.

  • #1 change: medical .. I now rely on medishield. In addition, I will maintain a tiny reserve ($20-50k?).
  • G3 change: CPF-life .. (paying out from 2039 till I die) can provide sufficient retirement income. In 2015, the same payout amount was dismissed as insufficient
  • G3 change: Inflation .. was a long-term concern and depends on the chosen home country. This worry has subsided for the “Singapore plan”, after witnessing Singapore inflation since 1991
  • no change: I still want to work till old age, perhaps as a developer till 70, and a lower-gear job till 85
  • change: longevity goal .. I now aim at 95
  • change: college funding .. is no big goal for me, and ironically the biggest departure from my cohort’s mainstream thinking.
  • change: NNIA .. (nonwork net income from assets) has increased. We talked about it before.
  • change: retirement destination .. Now I like the idea of roaming retirement between familiar low-cost cities (like Malaysia +  Chinese cities) to cut my monthly burn rate. Hopefully, My Singapore home can be rented out long term.
  • ^^^ bottom line: bank balance to provide financial freedom .. Given sufficient NNIA (cpf-life + Singapore HDB rental income+..), adequate healthcare, I (didn’t calculate but) guess $400k-$800k might be enough to support the family from now on, without any salary. I no longer feel enslaved by a huge savings goal of $3,000,000, presented as the price tag of “financial security”.

[17]PFF carefree]SG; what about 2017]U.S.@@

By Apr 2017, I had set up semi-retirement well in advance, as evidenced in the numerous posts under category “cashflow” (and also “retirement”). Key factors:

  1. quality affordable education in sg
  2. career longevity — mom and dad.
    1. Age-friendly Singapore employers for mom
  3. medi-shield; and most medical costs are much lower in Singapore
  4. low burn rate — mom and dad
  5. CPF LIFE
  6. HDB home is low maintenance (almost care-free) compared to U.S.
  7. property passive incomes
  8. Beijing home

Q: now why I feel the cash-flow pains, despite these factors?
A: peer comparison, but I always forget these factors are my unique strengths not shared with my peers.
A: saving towards 600k (even 800k) home .. stress! See the master index page
A: U.S. burn rate is inherently higher. See “Gerald” post