[21]livelihood[def2] x-class #S.Liu #w1r9

(A letter to a friend) The concept and criteria for “livelihood” are fundamental to many discussions I had with friends including our last email exchange, so let me clarify.

Henry Luo, a schoolmate of mine and a fellow programmer , has 5 kids. Henry told me that parenting, even in expensive Singapore, is not such a financial burden when I said many Singaporean parents (I didn’t talk to Malay parents) can’t afford more than 2 kids. I’m sure Henry knows exactly what specific items are , or aren’t part of “livelihood”.

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  • [m $$] adequate healthcare …. yes is part of livelihood. As a specific example, Singapore hospital wards are classified by level of care. Pictured above, the lowest is class C with ceiling fans over a large hall housing multiple beds. C-ward patients still receive /adequate/ medical care, but not so much comfort. Access to this level of healthcare is a livelihood need.
  • [m $] healthy nutrition …. yes, but expensive foods or fine dining… are not part of livelihood. In other words, we can live well without them.
  • [m $$$] safe shelter … yes in a safe, /sanitized/, sustainable environment, free of hazards. Housing is the most elastic item in this list. Specifically, perhaps 2 bedrooms for a family of 4 would be a comfortable minimum by my standard.
  • .. exercise facilities .. is not part of livelihood. In my experience, all residential locations offer some clean open spaces or affordable sports facilities or both.
  • [$] reliable public transport …. yes, but a private car is not a livelihood requirement in the Singapore context.
  • .. When I lived in NY/N/MA, we were coping fine without a private car.
  • .. My parents, living in Beijing for most of their lives, don’t have a car.
  • .. How about telecom? See section below
  • ^^ All of these cities have extensive public transport networks + affordable tax networks (my parents use taxis every day).
  • [m $] rigorous public education …. yes, but a prestigious college is not a livelihood need. Such a luxury education is really for the affluent like you and the future “me”.
  • .. [$$] If my child is academically qualified but unable to afford a college education, I would (unfairly) classify it as a livelihood issue, but hey, why do I worry when there are multiple layers of financial assistance like 1) scholarships or loans 2) work-n-study 3) work for several years then go back to school
  • [m $$$] dependable retirement income …. yes a common factor in financial hardship. The “livelihood amount” is hard to define. As a concrete illustration, the Singapore government provides an annuity that pays up to SGD 2k/M of retirement income. Upon my inquiry, an officer said that amount was considered adequate for the majority of Singaporean retirees. I have since confirmed with friends (in their 50’s) and also read personal stories that even SGD 1500/M is adequate. Adequate for livelihood, not adequate for a “retirement in style“.

[m=aligned to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs]
[$ to $$$ = non-trivial financial cost]

A somewhat academic clarification on the “retirement factor”. Some sharp observers would point out that retirement doesn’t qualify as a fundamental/basic factor of survival, like food, shelter or healthcare. An average (lower middle-class?) retiree’s minimum burn rate is perhaps split between nutrition, healthcare and transport.

In fact, transport and education are not absolutely essential factors.  In the same vein, many housing “requirements” are elastic and non-essential. My concept of livelihood is different from basic survival. Each “policy” would target a certain standard of livelihood. In my chosen standard_of_livelihood, retirement is a major factor.

Livelihood is about the long-term survival of one’s family (so childless households perceive livelihood differently). As life expectancy increases,  livelihood worries grow, esp. in terms of healthcare and retirement income. This echoes the pervasive perception that superlong retirement can lead to hardship, unless you prepare over a long time. Therefore, many old folks choose to keep working.

I watched the 2021 Oscar winner [[Nomadland]], featuring livelihood struggles (and thrills) of thrifty old Americans surviving on a budget. By the above definition_of_livelihood, many of them have some but insufficient 1) retirement income 2) sanitized shelter from hazards 3) healthcare 4) perhaps healthy nutrition.

Worldwide, I guess as high as 80% still work hard to avoid “livelihood” hardship as in my definition. In some rich countries, perhaps half the population still have livelihood concerns such as street safety, sanitation, job discriminations, debt repayment, inflation, natural disaster protection… Singapore government often talks about the livelihood of Singaporeans. In their context, Livelihood (something like 生计) is about economic survival, satisfying reasonable needs, and not left behind. More precisely, the Singapore government has always used some criteria (eg: means testing) to judge if a family has livelihood needs. Their criteria are higher than financial hardship.


I hope these examples help to clarify what livelihood includes and what resources, aspirations fall beyond the basic standard of livelihood. The most common phrases I tend to associate with “livelihood” are hardship, deprivation, left-behind, and life chances.

Q: Is my definition_of_livelihood too basic for us the middle class? Well, Henry is also middle class, based on my interaction with him. I don’t think his 5 kids feel hardship, deprived or lower-class. In 2020 I visited his new home .. clean (thanks to a full-time maid), not /cramped/ at all.

— telecom .. comparable to transport as an essential /service/ needed by everyone, a livelihood “need”. Lack of telecom service is a hardship comparable to lack of transport service… really? (Q9)

Paradoxically, some families spend more on telecom [TV, broadband, mobile] than on public transport. I think it reflect the nature of telecom as “discretionary spend”, more like entertainment spend. Now, if you remove the entertainment layer and focus on the “essential service” portion, you may notice the telecom cost is improving decade after decade. The most essential of all, landline, is almost free ! A2: The “hardship” is about lack of essential service, which is very very affordable nowadays.

The livelihood standard is very different for me vs my family. For me, I need reliable broadband, mobile voice/SMS, minimal data, no TV. The cost of this package is much lower than cost of public transport. For my family and most middle-class families, telecom bill keeps growing. Part of the reason is the “technology upgrade” by the operators. Telecom operators constantly upgrade their infrastructure and stay on the latest. The upgrade cost is passed on to consumers. Apparently, land line, mobile voice service, SMS and basic data tend to drop in price. The increase in the bill amount lies somewhere else in the bill like more data, faster broadband, more TV channels… all discretionary.

beat CPI-inflation+!losing liquidity : how tough@@

Context is long-term parking, such as (but I don’t want to focus on) retirement and 6M contingency reserve (typically 100k).

Q: how tough is it to beat inflation, without losing liquidity? Conventional wisdom seems to say “tough”.

Actually depends on country. In the U.S. (am slightly less familiar), CPI inflation is higher than SG, but CD interest (around 2% now) and mortgage rate are also higher than Singapore. HY/PE return is also higher than Singapore. Stocks generate higher return but beware of taxes. Non-rental properties show slower appreciation than in Singapore ! [1]

Today I want to focus on Singapore. I have first-hand experience since 1991. I also discussed with friends. Below 2% is my estimate. For simplicity, I will use 1.9%. Clearly savings and CD accounts can’t beat inflation. There are many safe-n-liquid investments such money-market funds.

— money-market mufu is my favorite and default choice
I have reason to believe MM mufu offers 2%+ compound return.
Even better, there are many competing mufu funds at different liquidity levels (they call it “risk ratings”)
— stocks and rEstate: I have discussed these elsewhere as inflation hedges. Drawback is liquidity.
— CPF : super-safe illiquidity, as defined in my post on liquidity.
Does CPF qualify as inflation-proof? Yes iFF you use my 1.9%. However, if you use the 3% as quoted by DBS seminar, then you need to consider CPF-SA with 4% interest.

Endowment plan: super-safe illiquidity. I won’ t consider them.
— gold? inflation-hedge for the long-term. Poor liquidity as defined in my blogpost.
— [1] Most things show higher price increment in U.S. than in Singapore, but a notable exception is the appreciation of non-rental property outside a few speculative regions attracting hot money.

Rental yield is much higher in the U.S.

Therefore, I plan to buy only rental properties in the U.S.

SG retirement brbr: questionable estimate #Pauline

 


See also ## CRBR estimates

[[invest like Buffett for parents]] is a reasonably useful book with realistic observations and tips, but not in its estimate of retirement nest egg.

On Page 7, author Pauline estimated SGD 1500/M of retirement burn rate for her dad. I see it as a realistic estimate as of 2017, when the book went to print.

Then from there Pauline estimated SGD 360k to last 20Y, while ignoring CPF-life. A Singaporean need not amass SGD 360k before retirement, because about SGD 200k locked [1] into CPF-life would pay out $1500/M for life.

[1] The catch is … horrible liquidity, standard feature of annuities.

Based on the SGD 360k estimate, Pauline then used a longer retirement_phase (reflecting improving female life expectancy) and 3% compound inflation rate over a 25Y “working_phase” to arrive at SGD940k. She used “Singapore high inflation” as a rallying cry for her readers to “amass SGD 1M”, but that’s inconsistent with my personal experience. 3% compound inflation rate is an overestimate. In Singapore, if home price inflation is removed (as per CPI criteria), then I would estimate a 25Y inflation factor of 1.4~1.6, so her father’s $1500/M retirement burn rate would become $2200 or 2500/M over the 25Y “working_phase”.

Pauline reached a shocking conclusion “In fact, all Singaporeans who are 40Y old and below would know that we would need at least SGD 1M in savings in order to retire safely”. Well, 90% of the world population aged below 40 has much less savings than that, so according to her, either SG is extremely expensive or most of the world population are unsafe in their retirement prospect!

— Why I bother to write this blogpost
1. There are many propaganda messages like “SG is the most expensive city”, “SG inflation is horrible”, “You need $1M to retire”… This book is the first serious yet non-academic presentation of the $1M estimate.
2. I like Pauline’s retirement burn rate estimate of SGD 1500/M, consistent with other ## CRBR estimates.
3. 3% compound inflation rate is an overestimate compared to my 30Y personal experience, but to her credit, Pauline’s estimate of “prices doubling over 25Y” is more realistic (closer to my experience) than other propaganda estimates.

covid19 CPIx-inflation risk@ %%assets

Covid19 fiscal packages could lead to inflation, though there are risks of deflation too. This topic is complicated so I will focus on my cashflow

  • consumer price level may go up
  • Most of my properties’ valuations have a positive correlation with inflation.
  • Endowment policy holders among my friends would probably suffer from inflation. Likewise, my GRR nonwork income would hurt by inflation, but long-term rental growth may benefit from inflation.
  • Dividend stocks would probably protect me from inflation risk.

cashcow^passive^nonwork income

“Cash cow” can be passive or active mgmt, but is reliable, not diminishing

“nonwork income” can be passive or active.

Truly passive income is rare.

  • div stock is more passive than rental property, but less consistent in most cases.
  • GRR

Passive (GRR) or active rental income is the best inflation-proof passive income. Dividends are also effective. In contrast, insurance products don’t provide good inflation protection.

[16]scenario plann`: asset devalue over50-100Y

Here I’m talking about gradual/progressive decline, beyond normal inflation.

In contrast, a sharp decline (discussed in the black-swan blogpost) may precede a V-shape recovery, and is more common at least in my simplistic view not based on any reliable data.

Actually, the protections in the black-swan blogpost also apply here.

A complete and objective assessment would probably rank my asset allocations as

#1 property – SG
#2 property – BJ
#3 property – Cambodia, BGC
#4 SGD or USD cash including CPF
… See also [20]current portfolio4 family livelihood protection, but those other allocations (eg: stocks) are smaller and less prone to long-term gradual devaluation.

So what about a 50% decline in one of these? Some of these assets have the potential to decline even worse, but 50% is a reasonably bad scenario to target. Based on my observations over the last 10-20 years, I feel U.S. and Singapore are fairly resilient, so a 50% decline in my lifetime sounds like low probabilities, but we still need to prepare.

The black-swan blogpost listed top 3 (or more) non-financial protections such as career longevity. However, I need some financial hedges, too.

  • Hedge – gold — probably the best hedges against inflation over 100Y
  • Hedge – USD or SGD cash and bonds — least volatile, more reliable but susceptible to inflation
  • Hedge – US stocks

— legacy planning in the face of lont-term gradual devaluation

If I only leave, say, $1M to my children and grandchildren, then I feel a 50% decline is tolerable. The decline would be gradual and I would have time to liquidate some assets and spend or reallocate elsewhere.

What’s the chance of me leaving more than $1M? Rather low.

— devaluation is always measured against some benchmark, usually against a currency. I suspect that with one exception [3], long-term devaluation is always a local devaluaiton relative to some global benchmark. If this is the case, and if you hold properties or stocks in several locations, you are unlikely to experience devaluation across the board.

What if those locations are heavily correlated (the black thinking hat)? Well, putting on my blue thinking hat, I think yes SEAsia locations might be correlated.  According to this theory, it’s worthwhile to hold some U.S. rental property, but beware the high running cost.

[3] The exception is inflation, not a focus of this blogpost.

yield^inflation(burn rate)during your semi-retirement

BusinessTimes 16 Jan 2017 has a detailed analysis about retiring on 3-4% investment yield. (My savings rate is probably 60-70%) This analysis has a basic assumption — investment yield CAN keep up with inflation…. Really?

In the Singapore context I blogged about the 20Y inflation as I experienced. Relatively low.

As to investment yield in the form of dividends or fixed deposit interests… not so sure. In conclusion, I would say — inflation did erode but investment yield didn’t keep up 🙁

Therefore, I like rental property better. Rental income rises against inflation, with good reliability. (In fact, the capital appreciation also rises with inflation, but that’s topic for another day.)

Key thing in this plan — reliable passive income. I’m betting on 5-7%. I think mostly I need to rely on rental properties.