(de)stressor in eq-investing #w1r4

I guess for most equity investors, stress [like all-at-once stressor moments, distraction, sleep in peace,,,] is like an “occupational hazard”, a fact of life.

I practice mainly two forms of eq-investing AA) SP500_ETF, BB) recreational MOETF. All other forms of eq-investing are unfamiliar to me, and by default too risky in terms of “wildfire getting out of control”  .. such as those 3episodes@ non-recreational trading. It’s worthwhile reviewing stressful investing experiences.

Note the key benefits of AA and BB are unavailable in “my” other asset classes like FXO, leveraged FX, gold, bond mufu, Singapore ETF

== AA) mindless investing .. SP500_ETF (not other indices, not mufu) is one low-stress, buy-n-forget form of investing. What about $200k in it? Should be fine. Buy-n-forget SP500_ETF relies on the index committee as stock pickers. Other ETFs, like sector ETF or other countries’ ETF are usually less successful than SP500_ETF. (Note buy-n-forget a single stock doesn’t involve exit-timing. Can rarely beat SP500_ETF.)

How about “balanced” mufu? It is supposed to buy “stability” at the cost of return but in my experience it doesn’t reduce stress cf SP500_ETF. Actually I always maintain my own bond ptf + speculative ptf + …. I can rebalance them, something I can’t do with a balanced mutu. Also the expRatio is not worthwhile.

== BB) recreational MOETF .. a classic positive stress comparable to other analytical and active-learning pastimes, in tech, magazine-xx, healthy food preparation,,
However, as I commit more funds into MOETF, this recreation can get out of control. Therefore it requires a robust firewall.

The positive stress is felt in a few specific stressor contexts listed in Q9.

  • Heavy allocation to growth ptf .. leads to net_negative effect on my overall stress profile, net_negative after considering firewall, buffer build-up.
  • Overwhelming allocation to dividend stocks .. has a 50/50 chance to net positive or net_negative stress, depending on the context

— destressor: firewall .. is designed for 1) stress protection, 2) portfolio protection.
Q: what frequency of ptf review is the max before it would lead to net_negative stress? Give a single number please
A: [3->6] a quarter
— destressor: steady DYOC .. (from my income portfolio) supposed to /defray/ a lot of annual expenses, reducing cash flow stress, but I have low cashflow stress in the first place.

Substantial DYOC should reduce the impact of a down turn, to be verified ..

— destressor: price buffer build-up has limited efficacy in stress reduction.
— destressor: diversification … meaningful diversification is not easy. Any evidence of that within a stock portfolio? I have not seen any.
=====
— Q: your notion of a wise investor? Beware not all “experienced” investors are successful in stress-management.

  • stress reduction .. keep the growth portfolio small (relative to…). This is my idea of a wise investor.
  • stress prevention
  • stress protection .. is hard to achieve, even for experienced investors
  • portfolio protection … defensive ptf? I don’t think this is a standard strategy among wise investors. Many wise investors don’t mind high volatility in a small ptf.
  • SP500_ETF .. (rather than mufu) is probably popular among those “wise” investors.

— Q9: (personal experience ) when I came under _certain_ types of stressors (but NOT other stressors), I would increase my recreational MOETF hour-allocation and dollar amount allocation. A paradox!

There are too many types of stressors even in a single person’s life. Let’s first focus on those stressors “friendly to” MOETF:

  • the stressor of plateauing growth: 江河日下,自强不息, midlife crisis #timetable@self-growth? Yes. MOETF represents a new frontier of self-growth[learning]. MOETF increases my sense of relative superiority. Recreational MOETF generates positive stress.
  • OC-effective? T_semiKai3mo2? FOLB? presumably effective : stress-reduction by recreational MOETF
  • BMI stagnation? workout frequency?
  • boy’s academic motivation?
  • spouse quarrels? probably a positive diversion

Anthony.Lin rentalProp hearsay story #divStock

 


Around 2011, I met my PWM ex-colleague A.Lin in Midtown a few times. He told me he had about 5 rental properties in Brooklyn [6]. What I remember he said is now mixed with what I imagine he said…

  • I think he said he bought fixer-upper[1] properties and “worked my butt off”[2] to make them usable again — FHR improvement.
  • I think he said his parents ( in-law? ) helped in some big way, perhaps renovation or rental mgmt[3].
  • I estimated that his[4] gross[5] rental income could be 10k/M but he didn’t confirm.
  • I have no clue about his mtg and haircut [pTax, maintenance, vacancy]

This is one of my biggest moments of FOLB on my path as an investor. He became one of the role models at the back of my mind. However, as I told HF.Sun, we outsiders don’t know some of the key facts of each deal, and should not assume its value.

[1] Risk: judgment risk. In this game, High return seems to entail high judgment risk.

[2] sacrifice. No pain no gain? But such sacrifice may not be worthwhile. I feel my HDB rental yield of 4% is not so high, but my effort is much lower. My Blk 177 realized rental yield was above 6%.

[3] Risk: legal risk, as Edward experienced.

[4] the rental income, the asset ownership ,,, is not 100% his. In contrast, I did all of my rEstate investment single-handedly, without family help.

[5] Q: what is his GRY and NRY assuming no mortgage on any property. I tend to assume GRY close to 10%. NRY is around half, up to 5%.

[6] Risk: concentration risk. Brooklyn is where he lived and knows well. In comparison, my overseas rental properties are more risky and higher costs.

— enviable ptf? How about div stock ptf?

Q: which portfolio is more enviable — AA) $1.5M cash deployed in 4~7 rental units with 50% loan + 7% NRY + leg work, BB) $700k in div stocks, no loan no legwork, 7% DYOC, diversified over 70+ stocks
A: most people would envy AA

Q: which one is more risky? AA due to legwork, delinquent tenant, LIR

DBS seminar: CPI-inflation

Most reputable authors from U.S., China (and other countries) present CPI inflation risk as one of the most serious risks for retirees. SG CPI trec is much much better. (However, my friend TJ.Lin disagrees…)

Even U.S. CPI inflation is not so bad in the short term. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/gold-as-an-inflation-hedge-history-suggests-otherwise.html says that The Federal Reserve tries to keep CPI inflation around 2% per year.

— The DBS seminar
On 30 Jan 2021 After the presentation, I confronted the presenter “Your 3% inflation over-estimate (DBS official estimate) seems to discourage people from saving and encourage people to spend more”. I still believe it. The presenter (Adeline?) replied “We are encouraging people to save and invest.” Ok the difference is saving-n-investing vs saving.

Look at the average people without enough Earn/Save/Invest capabilities. If the average people believes inflation is well-controlled for the long term, to average 1%, then they would be motivated to save more. If they are led to believe inflation is fluctuating beyond control, and higher than they feel comfortable, then they would feel discouraged from saving.

The presenter’s answer seemed to imply “The ordinary Singaporean retiree will need a huge retirement nest egg, but even if you save like hell your savings will be decimated by inflation, so the ONLY solution is investment in growth assets.” I disagree on multiple fronts.

Key issue 1: 3% compound inflation rate is an overestimate in the Singapore context. I discussed in numerous blogposts. She used a refrigerator for illustration — $1000 fridge today will cost $2000+ in 25Y. Well, I would predict there will be smaller fridges mass-produced in cheaper locations, costing far less. This globalization effect (discussed in this blog) is visible in clothing, electronics, toys, bicycle etc.  Instead of fancy merchandise, retirees need reliable, durable or low-cost designs. Retire-in-style is lifestyle creep, not necessary or admirable.

Key issue 2: the proposed nest egg size (around 1M, identical to Pauline’s) is too large for most people. It is not mandatory and it’s too hard to achieve, so most people would get by with less to spend, and it will be fine, not unacceptable.

Issue 3: CPF-life is a bedrock that DBS tends to downplay as insufficient due to inflation. All annuities have limitations, but I am convinced that CPF-life is the most reliable insurer with probably the highest payout rate.

Now if you ask ordinary folks to save like hell and invest large amounts, they would have no confidence, because all the investments “fast enough to beat inflation” are risky. That’s propaganda. I think even 2% compound return can beat the inflation I experienced. Therefore, if you lower the target return to 2%, then there are many safe-n-easy investments such as CPF and money-market funds.

So for most ordinary folks with up to 200k long-term risk capital[1], I agree with DBS that mufu is easier, but not really safer[2]. (Personally I would prefer stock-picking for 20k.) Mufu can cover equities and bonds. Obviously DBS wants to promote mufu since DBS makes money mostly from mufu and endowments.

[1] There is likely some other cash piles, but they could be earmarked for education, housing etc or they get depleted.
[2] equity mufu is subject to the same market risks as stock-picking. Liquidity is inferior due to management fee and longer trough.

 

 

disqualified by exclub[def] despite comfortable Brbr+FullerWealth

update :

exclub concept brushes aside health, family harmony, career longevity, brbr, healthcare provision, citizenship,

Therefore, exclub is an incredibly narrow indicator of achievement or satisfaction.


In ffree^FOMO #9K/M and strugglfamilies earnS$7k #Julius, and again in this blogpost, I continue to put myself into the shoes of a 9K/M family.

With 9k salary, some exclusive “clubs” would reject my family members — financially disqualified to enroll.

These clubs include immigration (Singapore included), branded educational institutes, investment deals, cars etc.

In a similar way, when other kids (wives) can afford something nice like vacation deals, but I have to say “That’s unnecessary lifestyle creep we can’t afford”, it feels just like disqualified.

A slippery slope ! Even though we did qualify for many “exclusive clubs” like uchicago, SG citizenship, there is always an even more exclusive club. The billionaire-under-40 club would make most of us feeling disqualified and bitter, iFF we choose to feel bitter.

— paradox of China techie

I will try to give a concrete, specific description.

A 30 year old tech worker in Beijing (or Shanghai) may considers himself unsuccessful because a “decent” home typically costs RMB 5 million to USD 1 million, and his USD 60k salary (月薪 3万五) is insufficient. Basically, he is disqualified for the Beijing home-owner club.

If instead he chooses renting, then his salary could provide him a comfortable high Brbr (buffer) and a comfortable life. Consider

  • My parents together earn up to RMB 20k/M. They only need up to RMB 一个月几千块.
  • My uncles in Tianjin each earn below 10k/M in pension.

无底洞: latency,med inflation.. #w1r5

Update:


See also conserver family disposable income

MLP hosted a latency presentation by Martin Thompson. One MLP audience asked a question. Here’s what I  vaguely recall:
Q: we spent lots of time to tune a system and achieved a few microsec of latency improvement, but someone points at another system (perhaps at a competitor) and say our system can be faster. What’s your view?

Case in point — I told a Goldman Hong Kong interviewer that my orderbook at Rebus can handle 700k mps. He said array-based orderbook can easily handle 1000k mps. Well, 700k mps on Rebus was more than enough for the business needs at RTS 🙂

Answer from Martin : To improve latency, the most important thing is time including developer’s time. Look at the requirement of the system. If your latency meets the requirement, then spending more time tuning is not effective (and not necessary, IMO). A few microsec further saving could be meaningless.

Q2: what if the requirement is to beat the competitor?
A: I think the project could become never-ending. The MLP latency-critical networking team shared personal experiences on the proper approach to network latency engineering. Network engineers would work closely with latency-sensitive traders to implement incremental latency improvements and within 72 hours assess the PnL impact. Invest more time and resources only if justified by PnL. If your trades are already beating the competition in terms of PnL, then having a faster or slower network may be irrelevant. Focus on the end goal (PnL) and stop worrying about secondary yardsticks like latency. Latency is not always the dominant factor in the game.

So that wraps up my three separate examples on latency. Now let’s turn to the other (wide-ranging ) topic of this blogpost — FOMO vs livelihood.

Q4: how much disposable income is enough for an (slightly above) average life, not a life in comfort and style? In terms of brbr (burn rate buffer ratio), how plentiful is enoughffree^FOMO #9K/M asked a similar but more specific question.

I have achieved bare-bones ffree at a “conserver” level, So one of my two major pains now looks like the rich feeling outpaced by a tycoon… endless greed, mindless peer comparison like Rajat Gupta

— Rajat Gupta was the CEO of McKinsey, after earning IIT and Harvard degrees. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rajat_Gupta) He was a multi-millionaire but reportedly wanted to join the billionaire club. Wikipedia said … Gupta reportedly began to express a certain resentment about money, as his peers in Silicon Valley and Wall Street (including McKinsey’s private equity clients) at the time “raking in staggering amounts of money while Gupta soldiered on with a mere senior partner’s millions”

His “mere millions” is more than enough for livelihood, but he was presumably driven by endless peer comparison. This endless FOMO may or may not be related to his disgrace.

— LuckyPlaza .. I envy the LuckyPlaza early investor who made perhaps a million dollar paper profit, but hey, he also envies me for
* my high annual salary. Total salary would exceed his paper profit in a few years. Over a few more years, my total would far exceed his paper profit.
* my wellness + family harmony

He would also envy the bigger investors who made $3M .. low-latency arms race! What’s enough? Perhaps half a million.

— Some cultures (and ethic groups) may be lukewarm about the latency arms race. As stated in some Americans must want to be successful,  some Singaporeans must want to be successful.

— In ffree]US=unrealistic4many 华裔 middle-class Henry.Yin said RMB 500k/Y is insufficient for an unmarried tech worker.
What’s his “latency requirement”? I think a standard requirement for this class is owning a home in Shanghai or Beijing, which typically costs RMB 6,000k to USD 1M. Kevin.Chen said RMB 3,000k would buy a very small house in Shanghai. So I guess 99% of Chinese population is too poor by this standard. This standard is probably an affluence or luxury standard, for an exclusive club of rich people.

By this requirement, most low-latency systems are too slow…

— Dating competition .. is similar to the latency arms race. The attractive young ladies would demand “top 0.1% of bachelors” meaning more properties, more fancy cars, more branded degrees. My father told me that nowadays, it’s not enough for a bachelor to have a home in a Tier 1 city as the girl demands a 100 sqm home  .. arms race.

— healthcare inflation.. my parents once said that they need a RMB 400k medical fund. If some treatment exceeds that then they would give up and say No to the 无底洞.

China consumers (like my mother) often favor imported products and newer products, often for valid reasons:

  • imported products are sometimes superior in some ways, but often not much or not relevant
  • older products sometimes hit drug resistance

For some common conditions (like cancer), I think there is “always” more fancy, more expensive, newer solutions, just like the new techniques in latency arms race. Some of these solutions cost a bomb but offer marginal benefits (some observers may say diminishing return). My mom gave examples about extending life by months. If those extra few months cost $1M, then it’s rational to ask “Where can this million dollars have more impact?” These /advanced/fancy/elective/ solutions contribute to medical inflation, but this is CPIx inflation and often driven by exclub, not livelihood.

eg: Nursing home is no “medical” facility but /healthcare/ facility. The minimum cost is very low, as proven in many Singapore community nursing homes. However, my parents in Beijing seem to want something much better. Indeed there are very fancy nursing homes asking RMB 10k/M or more…. smells like arms race.

eg: medishield coverage for private ward.. costs a lot more than the basic insurance that covers B2 ward. Many in my cohort prefer the more luxury insurance, sometimes without due diligence. Some of them probably think they can afford the more expensive insurance, and perceive private ward as important. I think this mentality contributes to medical inflation, driven by exclub, not livelihood.

In many cases, if a consumer doesn’t exercise critical thinking, then her worry about healthcare inflation boils down to blind_FOMO, not livelihood.