Tag: t_mufuEtf

2021 prognosis@ %%stock-pick`trec #cf mufu

Posted on by tiger40490

Let’s put on the white (or black) hat not the yellow hat or red hat. Let’s avoid “hope”.
— net capital invested .. “will be 10k at end of 2021”. Achieved.
— Number of names .. “will be 100 to 200”. Turned out to be 201 at 31 Dec 2021
Best way to count: Dec statement
— %bad_bets .. At an “average” time, in my rbh portfolio perhaps 40% of names (ETF included) would be in red, but 35% if considering dividend. Such a large difference exists because many of my non-performing stocks would have a tiny paper loss, easily compensated by dividend.

Quite likely 10% of the red or black names would have a %PnL below 1% [3]. These would be flippers ( flipping black/red ). Therefore I define deepRed as “%PnL worse than 1%”. Note, I don’t care about deepBlack. My batting average of “lucky picks” trec?  Dubious because

  1. 20% of the names can flip black/red over any period of time. This is similar to tracking your weight fluctuation on different scales, wearing different clothing … the measurement noise is way too high.
  2. div is ignored by Rbh

In conclusion, I will use a biased-yet-pragmatic yardstick “%bad_bets” := #deepRed_names / #names

[3] Quick assessment by mental calc? compare average cost vs current price, in the Rbh tabulation.

I forecast my %bad_bets would hit 25->30-40% (Achieved). So far, the typical %bad_bets hovers within 15~20%.

In Dec 2021 I told Aaron+Claris that I “always make money whenever I invest in stocks”. (My 3-min description was based on the blogpost on my eq returns.) I explained my eqMufu experience, revealing the key drawback of expRatio. Then I explained my stock picking track record. Most of my picks have be successes.

A “Success” means the stock didn’t drop “too badly”. It could be underwater now, but not hopelessly or permanently. It once had and will again have a chance to show a profit.

— DYOC trec .. “will be around 3->4-5% before tax over 2021”. Cost excludes withdraw-able cash. Achieved even though I have diversified to low-div stocks. If I use some arbitrary criteria to exclude the low-dividend stocks from my portfolio, then my “adjusted” DYOC would be 4->5-6%, before tax.

To manage DYOC, I can consider increasing position in existing high-yield stocks, while reducing (not wiping out) other positions.

My DYOC would be better than my peers, partly due to the prevalence of ETF passive investing. Any mufu salesman in a Singapore bank would ask me to compare my trec against a high-dividend mufu such as FSSA-DIVA. However, mufu often pays out part of its dividend from NAV when it receive less dividend than expected in a poor quarter. I explained in my blogpost on DPR.
— dividend income .. “will be 4% x 8k = $320/Y”, turned out to be $516 over 2021. (2020: $98)
— PnL trec (excluding div) relative [1] to SP500 .. would show a smaller difference (+/-), due to my focus on dividend. However, if there is a crash or long trough then I would benefit from my defensive portfolio, as I can receive dividends and keep my faith in the defensive, stable cash flows.

See also easy to make money; easy to lose
See also inDefenseOf MOETF + drawbacks #w1r4

Red-hat Warning : peer-comparison on PnL is counterproductive even harmful. It is as meaningless as (or worse than) comparison on brank, college prestige, size of home. Many people win that game (PnL or whatever) at a high cost like stress, distraction and family time.

[1] Absolute PnL prognosis will depend mostly on market return
— My tcost on babysitting … would remain “recreational”. Achieved.
My pre-trade tcost .. would increase from the Jan 2021 (honeymoon) level. I beat my expectation 👍.

learning(as recreational investor) #fund^stock-pick #w1r3

Posted on by tiger40490

Q: How do I compare with my wife, as a stock picker? My view is likely biased, though I would try to counter-balance my bias
%%A: I think she dare not touch other names. Good for her.

… This question belongs to the end !

Q2: “learning” is a vague buzzword. What kind of thing can you learn? A vague question but be as specific as you can, please?

  • PP) (self + market) psychology  .. The crazy psychology of those investors… we just get used to it, without gaining insight. It’s a big rough sea.
  • EE) economists’ (like Shiller) analysis ..  including market valuation and timing. I took two modules under Mark Hendricks.
  • AA) security analysis as in value investing or quant analysis .. I only spend 10 minutes per name.
  • .. pre/post trade dividend analysis.
  • TT) trading techniques .. risk control, order placement, position mgmt,,,

中长线 analysis (I never did) sounds like learning in EE and AA, but if not applied on stock-picking, then I guess it is only applied on sector picking and market timing.

bccy market is so unstable and fluid that I don’t see any learning in terms of EE, AA,,,

Q6: what are your specific reasons for learning? A vague question but be as specific as you can, please?

  • motivation: intellectual curiosity — some people earn a degree in their 70’s, not to use the knowledge in some career. See also recreational investing
  • big motivation: total return (including current income and windfall far out)
  • motivation: better understanding (of the rough sea PP + EE), better control (of my little dug-out). [1]

[1] Is this motivation underneath the big motivation? Probably not. My twin brother, an ETF investor, could end up with higher profit at some point, but without any understanding/control. I don’t want to end up like him.

Q11: Do I gain any insight from hot growth stock picking? (Similar question can be asked on FX, FXO, gold, oil.)
A: not sure. Whatever capital appreciation could be due to timing or dump luck. In contrast. I gained AA/TT insights on div stock picking only months later, when my div stocks performed well during a downturn — unexpected success.

Q22: did I learn anything from years of mufu “research”?
A: close to zero in EE, some self-discovery in PP.

Q22b: with so limited learning, do I get any real joy from mufu/ETF investing?
A: I feel it’s like watching sex vs having sex. If you don’t know why you made money, then it’s mostly dumb luck with timing… no joy. Doesn’t satisfy my intellectual curiosity.

Q33 (Dahlan discussion): do you learn the most from investment failures, or do you learn more from expected success, unexpected success…?
%%A: I feel some failure is required learning (re commodifies and FXO..) in the PP, AA and TT domain. You won’t become competent swimmer without scary encounters with killer waves.

— The 10Y-question. Context: Like many investors, I started investing during my internship [commodities, UniFund…].
Q: with a 10Y career as an amateur investor ..  am I better than an intern?
A: No better, as a mufu picker. Answer is similar to Q22.
A: Yes as a rEstate and stock(?) picker, I had more frequent buying experiences than many. For rEstate, “Test Result” comes in very slowly. I did lots of research into EE/AA and some PP.

I don’t know Adam Khoo. I think he is an experienced motivational speaker, and trainer, where his talent and wisdom have sustainable value. I don’t know his investment skills.

Q: why does no investor give money to an intern as a fund manager?
A: because the intern shows no wisdom, no trec, and is mostly a blind follower of sentiment. In contrast, an intern can work as a junior but professional programmer, thanks to his technical knowledge gained over 3Y at least. Learning is an essential ingredient. Buffett: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

  • Q: Compared to many seasoned investors like me, an intern can achieve better return via SP500 ETF over 3Y. I think it is sustainable.  Is the intern better than me?
  • Q: Compared to many seasoned investors like me, an intern can achieve even higher return via ARKK over 3Y. I think it is less sustainable.  Is the intern better than me?
  • Q: Compared to many seasoned investors like me, an intern can achieve even higher return via BTC over 3Y. I think it is less sustainable.  Is the intern better than me?

ETF invest`=far simpler than stock-pick`#Dahlan

Posted on by tiger40490

k_ETF_assetClass

I told my young colleague Dahlan that “ETF investing is much simpler than stock trading”.

  • no analyst research or rating
  • no need to identify defensive stocks or stable cash cows
  • no worry about buying at the peak
  • no worry about buying in a volatile time
  • no dividend safety concern
  • no dividend trec to check
  • no special dividend
  • no stock splits or buyback
  • no dividend cut surprises … as ETF dividend is always fluctuating.
  • no surprise about dividend processing
  • no surprise about tax withholding in Canada dividend
  • no surprise about low liquidity in pink sheets
  • no pre-clearance required for most ETFs

— learning as a recreation .. is a major advantage of MOETF.  Simpler implies less learning.
We learn and grow wiser mostly from mistakes and losses.

What if your stock pick doesn’t really lose money but trails the index and most index-tracing ETFs? I guess you too learn something.

You also learn something if your pick beats the index.

I feel the more names you pick, the faster you learn. You also learn by selling, but I practice buy-n-forget

My comment to Dahlan has a hidden meaning “Similar to a bigger board game, Stock picking is more fun more anti-aging, more recreational.”

liquidity[def]: how I gauge ILLiquid products

Posted on by tiger40490

I define liquidity as the expected number (possibly zero) of waiting months to fully recover my capital [1]. If I must incur a financial cost to access my cash, I consider it inferior liquidity. It feels like mis-calculation and mis-planning.

As defined, liquidity is a top 3 consideration in my investment decision.  I often think of liquidity more than (the vague concept of) risk. Therefore, liquidity is a dominant feature of my risk appetite and risk profile.

[1] Here is a fake example to illustrate some fine points. Say you incrementally buy one share of BRK.A and wait for X months to get near BrE. Presently, you only need to access the earliest 22% of that amount, but you have to liquidate the whole share, at a 3% loss. Still a big loss. So at the current price, the investment is not yet “free”, not at ABE, i.e. not_yet_liquid. However, suppose I also bought one share same way as you. If I’m able to select which fractional lot to liquidate, and able to liquidate the first 22%, then I am at ABE, i.e. breakeven on that 22% of capital. In such a scenario, the investment is already-liquid. In this illustration, fractional sell improves liquidity.

  • term insurance? liquidity is moot. Not an investment.
  • annuity? liquidity is moot. Not an investment.
  • cash-like? most liquid and low-risk

— ABE = actionable breakeven = a situation where I can liquidate a given position to achieve breakeven. Whether this breakeven includes various costs (like commission, FX) is unspecified. I usually include all costs.

BrE = breakeven. Half the times, the BrE situation is theoretical not actionable.

— With risk capital investments (rEstate, equities, HY/PE, gold …) there’s a pdf bell curve. I might have to wait for 10 years to breakeven and be free to liquidate (partially) to access part of my initial capital, or the wait could be 2Y.

I am used to this type of risk-capital liquidity. I have learned to embraced this type of risk-capital investments.

Mufu …. is generally less liquid than holding equivalent stocks because the wait is lengthened by erosive expensive ratio + upfront fees

Note dividend payout often improves risk-capital liquidity. Some risk-capital investments have no dividend — gold; SIA;  growth stocks

— My common objection to endowment products is super-safe illiquidity. No matter how lucky things turn out to be, I am likely to wait a long time before I can break-even via policy surrender.

CPF-OA/SA features horrible super-safe illiquidity, so I only accept CPF involuntarily.

— How relevant are bid-ask spread, upfront fees, and depth@market? Relevant.
Large transaction costs hurt liquidity as I defined.

dependable: blue-chips imt mufu/SDB #w1r5

Posted on by tiger40490

[21]SDB liquidity #selective cashout

See also (the Rebecca post) the affluent often favor Funds over stocks@@

Before I discovered my system of dividend stock picking in 2020, I was using mostly mufu (and FXO + Oanda).

Q: Over 10-20Y, which group is more solid and financially dependable ? Blue-chips (with or without div) vs mufu such as DIVA? (I won’t compare fixed-income.)

I would say blue-chips are more dependable. Warren Buffett (among many) gave Coca-cola as a shining example. You can analyze the Coca-cola business, the moat, the competitive landscape. No such thing with mufu. A fund manager can analyze and include such blue chips. Anyway, I don’t have energy/absorbency for such analysis.

I once liked and increased my commitment in 1) ShentonIncome, with 5% CDY 2) Unifund 3) AllianzUsHY but in each case, the fund performance was not sustainable.

You can buy-n-forget with a blue chip. You can sink in more fund with confidence. Although mufu also supports the same, there are some differences:

  • dividend stability .. see section below
  • Churn .. Within 10Y, a fund manager can decide to re-balance a portfolio, update “mandate”, or get closed (perhaps after a 30Y run) and replaced by another fund run by the same fund house. I have seen this many time. I think they do these things to maintain or increase AUM. If your favorite blue-chip is (partially) liquidated as a result, you won’t even notice. In contrast, a single blue-chip is a lot more stable and more dependable.
  • diversification improves dependability … A tricky point, deserving a separate section below.

— div safety .. is a key difference between blue-chips and funds. If the dividend income is steady (as with some blue-chips), then buy-n-hold is much easier. With mufu, dividend amount is far less stable. Also, management fee is forever erosive esp. when you invest a large amount like 20k. In terms of carefree buy-n-forget, mufu is less dependable.

Beware .. Most big names pay very low CDY, even cut dividends in bad times. In contrast, many steady dividend payers are small or lesser-known companies.

DPR (Div Payout ratio) explains why mufu dividend is far less sustainable or dependable.

See also my small debate on DIVA

See also My case study on AGD fund.

— high similarity between two funds ..

[1] Consider this analog: If you mix a bunch of distinct colors in 10 different “mandates” (allocation schemes), the 10 resulting colors all look similar.

Selectivity (subtle difference) …. enhances my confidence in a portfolio. Out of 10 broad-based funds I look at, probably 8 are very similar and equally “solid“, so selectivity is low.  It’s hard to find one clear “winner” among the 10. By contrast, my blue-chip stock-pick process is more selective, using more criteria. I tend to use my own criteria to identify my own solid and dependable blue-chip. Sometimes, you could stumble on one that fits like a glove.

Higher diversification (across lots of names) improves dependability of the portfolio, but diversification is defeated by correlation. Using two correlated names to achieve diversification is cheating. Two stocks are more uncorrelated than two funds… therefore a better scratch for the itch.

In a down turn, in my portfolio I am more likely to find one savior stock “above water”, and realize a profit.  The diversification (unimpressive between funds [1]) within a fund doesn’t help, since I can’t cash out one savior stock out of a fund!

The other factors below are less about “dependable”…

In theory, I can  check P/E ratio of a blue-chip and notice when a blue chip is undervalued relative to peers. Even if a mufu is as solid as a blue chip, with the mufu I am not allowed to decide when to buy a constituent stock ! To do that I have to break into the “brave new world” of stock-picking (pre-clearance, account mgmt, commissions…)

— Beware of hidden risks with “reputable” stocks … not always dependable.

  • Many China companies are state-controlled. However, Vance Chhoa told me China government clamp-down doesn’t target entire sectors.
  • Political factors influence many oil companies.
  • big tobacco stocks are subject to legislation risks.

— How about a fund consisting of blue-chips? Well, I have no time to analyze each constituent stock. I think many constituents are not good enough (dependable, solid) by my standard.
— how about solid gold? I’m generally negative about gold:

  • If fundamental of a business is sound, its price would eventually catch up with its dividend-derived value. The dividend is a constant beacon of dependability to all market participants.
  • bid/ask spread and other transaction costs .. reduces liquidity and hurts dependability
  • fundamentals .. is harder to assess. Gold is almost all about SnD, which is less dependable
  • holding effort (esp. -ve DYOC) .. makes gold less dependable over long term.

Gold has solid advantages over no-dividend blue-chip :

  • no competition no replacement
  • solid support by all governments

div: mufu^stock^Reit^ETF #DPR #NAV-erosion

Posted on by tiger40490

 

A mutual fund eats away up to 2% of the dividend yield, in the form of expense ratio. ETF is around 0.5%.

I have never earned real dividend yield above 10% so I am keen to experience it.  The Allinz funds are so fake and manipulative .. /marketing-gimmicks/.

==== DPR (Dividend Payout Ratio) .. is the basis of dividend safety , sustainability and dependability,  the differentiator between stocks (below 60%), ETFs (100%) and mufu (often above 100%)

REITs are required to pay out at least 90% of their net earnings, paid out as dividends. A payout of 70–80% of FFO is the U.S. industry average, regardless of taxable income.

ETFs receive stock dividends and are required to pay them out either in cash or as additional shares to shareholders.

Good dividend stocks have payout ratio below 60%, otherwise flagged as a dividend-safety red flag. I don’t think mufu has these two concepts. High-dividend mufu often need to liquidate (and reduce) NAV to sustain high target dividend. Examples include 1) AllianzHY 2) OCBC Templeton monthly div (I see this fact every month in my OCBC statement!) 3) AGD below. The frequent liquidation requires active management, and might increased expense ratio.

In an unprofitable year, a blue-chip can reach into its deep pockets of cash reserve and decide whether to keep up dividend. The dividend_aristocrats have done exactly that in every down turn. Most mufu funds have no such reserve as far as I know. Therefore, I would not want to depend on a mufu to keep up dividend payout… not dependable.

  • — dividend stability:
  • a good blue-chip including some REITs can maintain dividend amount for decades, based on a healthy payout ratio on the back of robust cash flow
  • an ETF is a simple construct and unable to achieve it if any constituent stock ever cuts dividend.
  • mufu is a complex structure. Whenever a mufu shows stable high dividend, it’s invariably “cheating” with DPR > 100% , by eroding NAV.

— The Aberdeen AGD case study … https://secure.fundsupermart.com/fsm/article/view/rcms222722/invest-in-this-income-strategy-with-regular-paying-dividends-and-potential-capital-gains is another case study. The FSM article claims “As seen in Chart 3, the strategy has also been able to deliver rather consistent dividend yields over the past few years, which at most times hover above 6%.” It sounds like the constituent stocks were generating 6% dividend consistently !?

Highly suspicious when you look at the top holdings — all low CDY and not known for high-yield. So I suspect the 6% dividend payout of this fund is financed by NAV erosion [liquidating its assets, hitting a payout ratio above 100%]. Fund managers do such things really to attract AUM. If the manager doesn’t liquidate assets, then the fund NAV would have climbed faster.

So this fund is probably a growth fund masquerading as a slow-growth income fund.

ETF quickGrab: buy-low +! due diligence #@singleNames

Posted on by tiger40490

 

k_ETF_assetClass

— A related strategy: after a broad market crash or during a prolonged overall decline, buy broad ETFs (or sector ETFs)

Prefer high-dividend low-volatility ETFs (such as SPHD) .. really aim at defensive stocks. They tend to bleed less if the decline deepens.

Prefer quantum below $200, so I can use multiple small limit order and avoid stressful night session.

After a recovery, consider to reduce (or exit) the too-broad ETFs, because I prefer holding single-names. See ##when2sell stocks

— filtering ETFs available on Rbh
* criteria: expRatio ..
* criteria: div yield ..
* criteria: AUM > 1 bn
* criteria: price chart ..

There are many ETF-screener sites…

— SQG [SectorQuickGrab] .. my main strategy. If a specific sector is down but I have no specific stock pre-cleared and checked out (due diligence), then I would quickly buy a sector-specific ETF. In a few weeks, after I buy selected single stocks to gain the desired exposure, I will reduce or exit those ETFs to free up cash.

https://etfdb.com/etfs/industry/ shows close to 100 sectors

The correlation Assumption .. in a sector-wide decline, all major constituents decline. My (would-be) favorite single stock is likely one of the major constituents of the sector. If that stock drops 11%, then the sector ETF probably hit a similar drop. The quick grab is effective if that correlation is strong.

Biggest tracking error is expRatio. See note below.

— tip: Keep small positions in a large number of specific ETFs, so I know which “sector-ETF” are avilable.

  • perfer liquidity
  • prefer small quantum .. to support limit-buy. https://www.cnbc.com/sector-etfs/ shows prices of 50 common ones.
  • prefer 1) low expRatio and 2) higher div? LG2 I won’t hold it long term
  • need to ensure ETF contains at least 21 names
  • — the contenders
  • Utilities: XLU
  • energy (oil/gas): XLE, XOP, IYE
  • midstream:
  • rEstate: VNQ, IYR, DRW (blogpost)
  • Reit: see blogpost
  • telco: XTL
  • pharma:
  • biotech: IBB
  • banking:
  • tobacco:
  • Inet:
  • mining: XME
  • tourism:

gain`traction {20Y wheel-spinn: eq investing

Posted on by tiger40490

See also [21] %%G9 strengths as investor #specifically

div-stock picking after years of disappointing mufu-research + FXO trading — this is my vision/traction.

I wrote this blogpost as a retrospective and also to highlight my presumably improving wisdom(?) and competence(?) relative to the lay public. Am growing to a wise investor.

A random list of my vision secrets:

  • Dividend is more reliable, higher ROTI. In contrast, dividend is dismal in mufu (mutual funds) + FXO.
  • Blue-chip stocks are more dependable than mufu
  • mentally segregate my stock portfolio into growth ptf + income ptf etc. Even the growth ptf could be fine without benchmarking against SP500.
  • — minor insights:
  • Easy to find rich research insights on individual stocks, much better than mufu .. With mufu (or FXO), the info available online is 1% compared to stocks. There’s no dividend history (My vision secret) to look at. The online reading experience can be fun but aimless, often time-consuming, but some other forms of analysis can be enjoyable as I feel accumulating a bit of insight and vision.
  • mufu would eventually lose out to SP500 due to expRatio cumulative erosion. Important to long-term buy-n-hold investors
  • eqMufu div yield > 3% is inevitably unsustainable. (I have multiple blogposts) Underlying CDY is up to 4% but expense ratio is 1.5%, so it’s hopeless to aim at DYOC of 5%.  Stocks are superior.

A random list of my traction secrets:

  • Favor US.. see U.S.beats other markets over3Y+ 
  • decent marginal ROTI, due to effort, not completely luck or dumb timing.
  • The effort has to be sustainable and compatible with my lifestyle.
  • sustainability .. buy-n-forget with firewall, without babysitting
  • zero commission + fractional .. permits quick and frequent experiments
  • 100+ stocks diversified .. made possible by buy-n-forget habit
  • recording annual return is futile and poor ROTI

==== historical review
For decades, I never really perceived equity as a suitable investment for my financial needs. Too unstable, unpredictable. Unacceptable liquidity by my definition (blogpost). A long trough could last 10Y+, so I never had the conviction to invest 10k (“$20k” later on). Even now, on Futu trading app or elsewhere, when I look at the 100 well-known stocks across my familiar countries [US, greater China, SG, Japan, EU, Korea], I see the same absence of long-term trend. Well-known stocks attract hot money, leading to boom-n-bust… that’s one of my theories.

My eqMufu journey since 1997 has been long and wide. It confirmed those “theories”. Instinctively, I always cash out my mufu at some modest level of profit, because I felt that the profit is impermanent. In hindsight I tend to blame the expRatio — forever erosive. 2% over 5Y means 10% erosion.

Then in 2013 it occurred to me (unknown to the lay public) that US large-caps exhibit much better long-term trend than other regional markets.

In 2019, I discovered Robinhood. Thanks to the one-share minimum I was able to pick dozens of stocks, rather than “handful” in a typical portfolio.

Only in 2020 did I create my “system” based on DYOC/firewall/buy-n-forget.

How about non-eq? With FXO and FX, I did a lot of research but did rather few trades, largely due to per-trade commissions. My traction secret? Robinhood lets me act on my research more easily

— gambling?
FX, commodities, futures, options are zero-sum games, more gamble-like than equities. Index investing is actually just as gambling as stock picking, but div-stock picking feels less gamble-like. Blue-chip div-stock picking is esp. thrilling, even though my picks are sometimes unspectacular.

Remember many retirees rely on dividend stocks + bond coupons. Investment-grade bonds are comparable to annuities (least gamble-like)

 

%%annual return ]eq #JL.Loh #w1r3

Posted on by tiger40490

See also

Q: over any “12M window when my account has $1000+ in equities“, do I usually generate 5 ppa return?
A: yes. However, with my eqMufu, the end-to-end return for each fund is more accurate therefore more reliable.

Q: over a 5Y sliding window, do I usually generate 5 ppa return whenever my account has $1000 or more in equities?
A: IDK. harder to estimate.

Q: Why are so many people interested in a stock portfolio’s annual returns?
A: Because they want to compare it to a fixed-income asset!

— eq holdings… ought to be documented before we assess return rates

  • small amount in FSM
  • — SRS: total SGD 15k invested
  • SIA
  • DIVA
  • — in U.S.
  • USD 2k GS shares
  • USD 20k in Roth401k target date fund
  • USD 2.5k in eqMufu
  • USD 10k in Rbh

— (edited) letter to .. Hi Junli, You asked: what’s my average return in my eq investments.

  • My top mutual fund is from T.Rowe Price. Look at its performance: https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/trbcx/performance
  • One retirement fund was managed by Goldman Sachs. I don’t think the NAV has ever dipped below my initial amount (around 20k). Therefore, it’s a positive return end to end. If you ask about annualized returns, then I would say “I don’t care. I leave it to the fund manager.” Typically, U.S. fund managers use SP500 (or other indices) as benchmark. In those cases, long term annualized returns would be 4% to 8%, not negative. Negative return is always over a short window in the U.S.
  • I have tiny ETF positions (in my brokerage account) and Reit positions (in brokerage and DBS accounts). End-to-end returns are positive so far.
  • ^^ for these items, I leave my money entirely to the managers. I don’t monitor them.
  • my own brokerage account (in US) shows a 30% return over the last 3 years, but a future year could easily hit a negative return. My wife has a SGD brokerage account…
  • my Singapore mutual funds are each held for a few months, or longer (up to a few years). For example, if I hold a fund for 13 months, I may sell at a 10% profit. Most of the time (like 9 out of 10 times), I do sell at a profit. The profit ranges from 5% to 80%. Once a while, I liquidate a fund at a loss, where the loss ranges from -10% to -30% end to end. Therefore, overall return is surely positive across my equity mutual funds. My profit% or loss% is never an annualized number. It’s too time-consuming to calculate annualized returns.
  • ^^ So almost all the items above are end-to-end positive. All’s well that ends well.

Some people ask me how much money I invested across all equities, and how much total profit so far. I once spent hours computing, and gave up.

Why did I gave up? The questions assumes we are a fund manager with a single platform, a sophisticated accounting system to keep track of money flows. In reality, my total “commitment” fluctuates too much and I have no such “tracking system”. I started at 10k, grew to 50k (or 100k?) and I took out most of it, before topping up again. For many years my commitment level was close to zero. So I don’t know (and don’t care about) the average commitment level. Profits are also hard to track.

Next time, I will give an answer based on my brokerage account over the last few years. I will say that when my account had more than $1000 value in equities, the typical return is xxx ppa