Temasek^MAS_OFR^GIC

Q: given Singapore’s oversized reserve, does Singapore’s investment/asset-mgmt talent pool have adequate calibre?
A: I think MAS and GIC allocte large portions to external managers with specific expertise, and manage the allocation with control, periodic reviews and rebalancing. I feel China government is less likely to do that. (On a footnote, Temasek is somewhat differnet. It owns stakes in many government-linked companies.)

In contrast, Private money AUM in Singapore was about SGD 5T as in Singapore assets under management up 10% to $5.4 trillion in 2023; new debt issues rise 21% | The Straits Times

— based on Ravi Menon: How Singapore manages its reserves (bis.org)

Singapore’s reserves are held and managed in three distinct pots: the MAS, GIC, and Temasek.

MAS manages the OFR [official foreign reserve, SGD 500b as of mid 2024]. MAS is the most conservative of the three investment entities, with the OFR invested mainly in safe and liquid assets. Probably low-return. Out of the 3 pots, I guess only MAS fund can help defend the Singapore dollar, due to liquidity.

The GIC (well over USD 100b, possibly many times bigger) is a sovereign fund manager, managing the government’s foreign assets.  These assets are separate from the OFR. At GIC’s inception, part of the OFR was transferred from MAS to GIC, which was tasked to invest the reserves in a globally diversified portfolio of asset classes with a higher risk profile to deliver good long-term returns. GIC’s annual (dividend?) return contributes to the revenue of the government.

Temasek (SGD 400b in Nov 2022) is another state-owned equity investor. More than a quarter of Temasek’s portfolio is invested in Singapore, with the rest invested in 1) Asia and 2) global markets.  Compared to MAS and GIC, Temasek is further out on the risk-return spectrum. I suspect that Temasek doesn’t have a statutory duty to pay annual dividends to share holder (i.e. the SG government). Such an obligation would limit the level of risk capital in the fund.

— Temasek 2022 .. based on https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/temasek-holdings-net-portfolio-value-crosses-400-billion-first-time-annual-review-2803921

  • 63% in Asia
  • 27% in SG
  • 22% in China .. #2 country allocation
  • — by sector
  • #1 sector: 23% financial services
  • #2 sector: 18% telecommunications, media and technology
  • #3 sector is transportation and industrials (energy and resources)

Unlisted securities (52%) registered 16% IRR over 20Y. These are often the most risky, unestablished businesses.

— CPF money and GIC.. demystified and clarified in every S’pore dollar is backed by hard asset #ownership.

every SGD dollar=backed by hard asset #ownership

 


As of 2020, the total currency in circulation was S$57 billion.[6] This figure was 29 billion in 2012. All issued Singapore currency in circulation (notes and coins) are fully backed by external assets in its Currency_Fund to maintain public confidence. Such external assets consists of all or any of the following:[9] (a) gold; (b) foreign exchange in the form of time deposits; Treasury Bills; (c) securities of (or guaranteed by) foreign governments or international financial institutions; (d) equities; (e) corporate bonds; (f) futures; (g) other asset.

As at 31 March 2017, MAS’s assets (S$395 billion) were more than seven times larger than the assets of the Currency_Fund (S$55 billion).

Official Foreign Reserves (mas.gov.sg) shows similar history levels for end of 2017. By the way, the end-2019 level was below end-2018, possibly due to covid19 preparation

As part of the MAS total assets, Singapore’s foreign reserves officially stood at over US$288.2 billion, as of July 2022 according to the MAS.[11] This is confirmed by the monthly query result on MAS Monthly Statistical Bulletin – IV.7 Official Foreign Reserves

2022 Q1 gold.org/IMF data shows similar numbers:

  • SG total reserve [sum of the below] = USD 434.4 billion
  • SG FX reserve = USD 424.8 billion
  • SG gold reserve = 153.74 tonne = USD 9.6 billion, or 2.2% of total reserve

MAS assets including OFR+gold add up to S$580b as of Feb 2022, but excludes assets managed by GIC and Temasek. All of them are owned by the the SG gov, operated by the PAP administration. See “oil money” below. Comprable to the Nobel memorial fund, or the Harvard endowment fund, it is not owned by any SG citizen. The private money held by SG citizens would add up to a separate amount. In contrast, the assets in CPF is 100% owned by individual citizens (simplest case), not owned by SG gov; the assets of IBM is 100% owned by shareholders. One shareholder could be Intel, another could be SG MAS.

Each (portion) of the SGD 29b was created exclusively by MAS, either physically or (presumably) electronically. Electronically means deposite into a bank account. Every physical note has a serial number. Either physical or electronic, a new SGD 1 represents a kind of “claim” on the $55b CurrencyFund.

— owernship of CPF money

Backgrounder: In general, every amount has an owner. (A central bank and a government is also a kind of owner.) MLP managed 40b but each dollar has a known owner. When Intel invests $100m free cash, that 100m is “owned” by Intel, but Intel stocks are owned by millions of investors including institutional investors. Ownership is complicated by holding companies and investment trusts.

1. CPF money belongs to individual Singaporeans, and not government’s money. This ownership difference must be understood first. If $200m CPF money (including my money) is managed by GIC, then this $200m is not “government’s money”. See MOF | Is our CPF money safe? Can the Government pay all its debt obligations?

2. CPF money is invested with a fund manager — GIC. GIC also invests “government’s money.” The dual mandate of GIC is extremely confusing until you understand the ownership. Similar to GIC,

  • GSAM, was managing client’s money, employee’s money and Goldman’s house money.
  • MLP was managing client’s money and founder Izzy’s family money

— oil money .. when oil appreciates, many gulf countries became richer. Basically, the central banks and treasuries became richer with a bigger OFR.

Q: Who have the ultimate ownership of the oil assets (+ the derived cash)? Some say the king, some say the citizens, but I would say “not so simple”. The government is the proper owner, as stipulated in the constitution.

 

##2007 OFR per capita: SG=top2

Note data below includes OFR + gold holdings of each central bank.

https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Economy/Reserves-of-foreign-exchange-and-gold-per-capita 2007 data shows

  • #1 SG at USD 35k/citizen
  • #2 HK at USD 22k/citizen

https://www.citypopulation.de/en/world/bymap/financialreserves/ has 2016 data.

Small countries like Sg and HK need big OFR to defend their currencies, and prevent imported inflation.

— per country .. (less important for this blogpost)

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true 2021 data shows total OFR

  • #1 Chn
  • #2 Japan
  • #4 USA
  • #5 India
  • #7 HK .. USD 497B
  • #10 Sg .. USD 425B

 

gold: CB holdings, production rates: some numbers

 

— Central banks hold gold mostly as a supplement to OFR [official foreign reserve]. These assets are owned “ultimately” by citizens (not “taxpayers” [3]), but strictly owned by the central government. See other bposts.

[3] some tax payers are foreign nationals; some citizens have insufficient income and never pay tax, such as my kids and my dear wife.

  • CB of US: 8133 tonne, highest in the world [1]
  • CB of Germany: 3358 tonne, 2nd highest in the world
  • IMF: 2810 tonne, 3rd among CBs
  • CB of China: 1948 tonne[1], The IMF and gold.org data shows both total reserve and gold holdings of each country (excluding IMF). China is #1 in total reserve, #6 in terms of gold holdings. (myth: “China CB has the highest gold holding??”)
  • CB of SG holds about 153 tonne of gold as reserve [1]. See every S’pore dollar is backed by hard asset #
  • my two pieces of gold jewelry : 9.15 g + 1.85 g
  • most of the 5580 tonnes of gold held in the Bank of England vaults is held in custody, on behalf of central banks
  • LBMA vaults held 3870 tonnes at end of 2020
  • GoldChartsRUs.com chart shows ETFs held 2575 tonnes in LBMA vaults.

[1] according to 2022 data on gold.org

As of 2019, Out of aggregate total of 190,000 tonnes, 32,000 tones were held by top 40 central banks. S$80k * 190 Million kilos = S$ 15 trillion.

— allocation by industry.. Using earlier data, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_holdings estimated that out of the 187,000 tonnes,

  1. 49% is in jewelries,
  2. 19% in financial investments (bar/coins, excluding CB holding),
  3. 17% by CB (i.e. central banks) as supplement to ORF, around 32,000 tonnes
  4. 12% for industrial use of gold.

— US government site https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-much-gold-has-been-found-world?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products

  • About 244,000 metric tons of gold has been discovered (not “produced”) to date
  • .. 187,000 metric tons historically produced, but some might be damaged beyond repair.
  • .. current underground reserves of 57,000 metric tons
  • All of the gold discovered thus far would fit in a cube that is 28 meters wide on every side.

— production rate: 3500 tonne/Y, excluding secondary sources (old scrap)

https://www.northernminer.com/news/global-gold-production-will-average-2-5-annually-from-2020-2029/1003821667/ cites a Fitch forecast.