Tag: t_othRisk

[21]Sg income brackets #wealth

Posted on by tiger40490

See also UBS wealth report

— SG 2021: Monthly gross income (excluding employer CPF) for each full/part time employee, excluding non-residents. I prefer the MOM stat publication .. consistent format, enabling longitudinal analysis. Out of the 2021’s (roughly) 2,250,000 employees:

histogram cum
count(‘000)
Under $500 46.6 46.6 2.07%
$ 500 – $ 999 96.1 142.7 6.35%
$ 1,000 – $ 1,499 191.4 334.1 14.86%
$ 1,500 – $ 1,999 162.1 496.2 22.07%
$ 2,000 – $ 2,499 184.7 680.9 30.28%
$ 2,500 – $ 2,999 182.1 863 38.38%
$ 3,000 – $ 3,999 330.5 1193.5 53.07%
$ 4,000 – $ 4,999 237.1 1430.6 63.62%
$ 5,000 – $ 5,999 186.8 1617.4 71.92%
$ 6,000 – $ 6,999 125.1 1742.5 77.49%
$ 7,000 – $ 7,999 99 1841.5 81.89%
$ 8,000 – $ 8,999 82.6 1924.1 85.56%
$ 9,000 – $ 9,999 52.4 1976.5 87.89%
$10,000 – $10,999 62.7 2039.2 90.68%
$11,000 – $11,999 31 2070.2 92.06%
$12,000 – $12,999 25.9 2096.1 93.21%
$13,000 – $13,999 18.9 2115 94.05%
$14,000 – $14,999 16.9 2131.9 94.80%
$15,000 – $19,999 55.2 2187.1 97.26%
$20,000 and Over 61.7 2248.8 100.00%

— SG 2018: Monthly Household Income from Work , Excluding Employer CPF Contributions

  • 50.0% of 2018 households earn 7k or less from work.. #45.6% for “includingAllCPF”
  • 26.2% of 2018 households earn 3k or less from work.. #24.5% for “includingAllCPF”
  • 64.6% of 2018 households earn 10k or less from work #59.3% for “includingAllCPF”
histogram cum
Households With No Working Person 12.1 12.1
Below $1,000/month 2 14.1
$1,000 – $1,999 6.1 20.2
$2,000 – $2,999 6 26.2
$3,000 – $3,999 6 32.2
$4,000 – $4,999 6.3 38.5
$5,000 – $5,999 6 44.5
$6,000 – $6,999 5.5 50.0
$7,000 – $7,999 5 55.0
$8,000 – $8,999 5.2 60.2
$9,000 – $9,999 4.4 64.6
$10,000 – $10,999 4.2 68.8
$11,000 – $11,999 3.6 72.4
$12,000 – $12,999 3.1 75.5
$13,000 – $13,999 2.7 78.2
$14,000 – $14,999 2.4 80.6
$15,000 – $17,499 5.1 85.7
$17,500 – $19,999 3.2 88.9
$20,000 and Over 11.1 100.0

Sgp 每月开支分类总结 #relocated

Posted on by tiger40490

See also ##burn rate track`s/sheet:best practice
Beware: Perfectionist tendency would increase tcost of monthly exp recon. Better Update this once a few months.

WordPress table is clumsy. Migrated to spreadsheet.

天
数		 总计[a] 固定
账单[b]		 俩宝/
爱人		 娱乐
[c]		 保险
年费		 杂[d] 特殊开支
30 ~2023.11.29 Shanghai vacation
30 ~2023.10.30  4730 1010 1970 730 0
30 ~2023.9.30 $5780 710 1650 590 0 ESWT
31 ~2023.8.31 3000 1040 10 460 0
44 ~2023.7.31 $6490 1010 2910 680 6 俩宝学琴/补习
33 ~2023.6.17 $4220 1270 15 180 1476 final mtg-I payment
~2023.5.15 7530 1710 670 3204 176 flight $2953; mtg-I:2mon
~2023.4.15 $5320 410 2680 354 328 俩宝学琴/补习
~2023.3.15 $5100 1700 760 355 1354
~2023.2.15 $5410 1470 170 270 2514
32 ~2023.1.16 $5630 1100 gift4inlaws$753; laptop$399
30 ~2022.12.15 $5750 ex bx 1250 2140 600 3468 俩宝学琴 $18xx
29 ~11月15 3490 ex.. excluding reno
^ rate hike from 98 bps to 198 bps. Recon_mtg_I rising (double) to $9xx
32 ~10月17 $4270 ex.. excluding commission, including SBH$14xx
31 ~9月15 $3990 俩宝学琴 $18xx
31 ~8月15 2250
29 ~7月15 1980
27 ~6月16 6840 1476 俩宝学琴 $18xx, Agoda $505
33 ~5月20 2090
30 ~4月17 4720 俩宝学琴 $18xx
30 ~3月18 5850 2454
32 ~2月16 2750
28 ~2022.1.15 5620 3780
28 ~2021.12.18 4760 俩宝学琴 $18xx
31 ~11月20 3300 TVrepair$720
34 ~10月20 3500 400 1754 117 6 1230 俩宝学琴 $1740,
32 ~九月16 $3574 667 481 60 0 2366 vacuum$761; buxi
29 ~八月15 $5040 368 1743 0 0 2929 yoga$749, HP71, 俩宝学琴,
33 ~七月17 $3430 437 28 152 1476 1337 AIA
30 ~六月14 $2794 557 0 10 0 2227 fridge $1230
32 ~五月15 $2984 416 0 45 0 2523 TV $1279
30 ~四月13 $12,719 10920 0 361 382 1056 IRAS $10340
31 ~三月14 $4,726 512 189 77 2874 1014 MyCare+MyShield
61 ~2021.2.11 $6,875 俩宝学琴,yoga
34 ~2020.12.12 $4,604 428 1316 661 288 1910 $192 feeDBS; $423 Lazada 俩宝学琴
31 ~11月8 $3,172
31 ~10月8 $2,095
30 ~九月7 $ 3,338 567 1488 97 0 1186 俩宝学琴
31 ~八月8 $ 2,896 454  215 296 0 1931 yoga
30 ~七月8 $ 2,767 325  172 45 1476  749
31 ~六月7 $ 2,640 410  450 20 0 1760 Acer95
30 ~五月7 $ 1,990 220  390 60 460  860
30  ~四月7 $ 3,850 340 1640 250 420 1200 俩宝学琴
23 ~三月8 $ 2,200 470 520 24 42 1150 mixer
42 ~二月14 $ 7,450 530 460 1110 2880 2470 蚊帐 风扇
27 ~一月3 $1550 520 0 30 0 1030 laptop$300
43 ~12月7 $4650 710 910 470 290 BGC trip
27 9.29~10.25 $1290 290 200 0 0

[b] 消耗类型: 固定每月寄来账单 包括 — 水电气，交通，电视，上网，物业， 税。比较其他类型，这类开支每月金额相对稳定。
[c] 娱乐类型: 开支 包括 — 机票+旅店，餐馆，门票
[d] 其他消费: 包括老婆用我的信用卡采购食品
[e] day count precision is unimportant but as engineers we want a reliable system — Take the 12月12>>2月11=61D for an explanation: Step 1) two enclosed month-ends give 62D; Step 2) 62D+11–12=61D
[a: most verified(to $10)field]  我的数据只能展示从个人银行账户里我花的金额 —

  • 排除老婆账户花的 （每月估计两千）、爷爷账户、奶奶账户开支金额
  • 排除投资的金额 （比如外汇兑换）– 这类金额不属于消费
  • 排除每月转账给家人（比较固定的）津贴 — 这类金额不是花费

每月天数[e]不等. 每月的总计数目没有比较性，也不能算平均值．原因是机票和保险数目太大，造成每月支出总数忽高忽低，趋势线基本不存在．

pseudo-DCA ] %%system: lack`discipline

Posted on by tiger40490

See also my Dec 2021 mail to Aaron/Claris

My recreational system already uses DCA principle — “invest small amounts regularly throughout the year”.

Main benefit of my DCA — mistakes are minor and detectable.

— deviation from the standard DCA robot

  • in an overpriced market, I have fewer stocks to consider investing. I tend to notice the recent hype and stand aside
  • I tend to pick new names in each small purchase, rather than buying the same stock over and over.
  • DCA down the curve .. (the main deviation) See below

However, how do you tell “overpriced”?

— down the curve .. My system is supposed to reduce purchases during bull markets, building up a buffer, and increase purchases during decline, depleting the buffer. However, in reality, we often feel hesitant and try to wait for further declines.

Jolt: when we see an initial recovery, we don’t know if it is a temporary recovery, so we are usually hesitant

Jolt: when we see a zigzag decline then a recovery, we don’t know if the decline would continue, so we are hesitant

Jolt: when we see an up trend of 30% from the bottom, we often feel it’s too late to go in

— up the curve .. When SP500 rises after some decline, it could be still overpriced, or it could be bottoming out.. How do you tell? See overvalued@@ CDY,P/E,NGRY

bachelor→pff: how I adapted #80marks

Posted on by tiger40490

I’m trying, unsuccessfully, to transfer my burn rate habit to my kids. Meimei seems to be listening.

My income is much higher than bachelor years, partly due to salary inflation. My family burn rate is also much higher, with inflation playing some unquantified role.

I have largely avoided the white elephants of many middle-class families — cars, private/international schools, golf, high-maintenance landed properties, maid, big loans,

Background: An author mentioned that we all face cashflow challenges as singles [1]. We face even more when we get married and have kids[2]. (Based on no definition) Out of 10 singles on (cashflow) high ground, fewer than half would remain on high ground in [2], rather than falling off.

Paradox: my single burn rate (c++US etc) is less than 25% of my family burn rate. I won’t go in-depth because I think the explanatory factors are fairly obvious.

This blogpost can easily become forgettable and hardly /distinguishable/ from similar blogposts. Sharp questions might be more valuable (than answers)… They represent perspectives, angles of view.

As to the answers, most will be valid, relevant but forgettable. I won’t try to make all of them /memorable/. My preference is to avoid vague items, separate out the important but familiar items, and focus on unusual items.

Q2: what strategies and habits did I carry over from single’s life /transitioning/ to family life?

  • saw a clear distinction between liabilities vs productive assets (cashcow). Liabilities include debts [mtg, student loans..] and white elephants like cars
  • — forgettable answers
  • steadfast focus on expense regulation [control ]…. rather than a target-amount of nest egg for investment. Jolt: My nest egg was a by-product.
  • .. ctbz? Probably more effective on the big-tickets like cars, rent cost, vacations
  • .. just_say_no to FOMO, exclub, creep, splurge,
  • maintained my salary … better than anticipated, despite churn, age discrimination etc

Q2b: what adaptations did I have to make for the transition?

  • a focus on published stats of median household income in the city, rather than a hearsay guesstimate of my peers’ burn rate. That guesstimate is 300% of that median.
  • — forgettable answers
  • exp recon .. a key “regulattory device”, adapted to family finance — no mean achievement. Virtually no one in my circle reached my efficiency, even though many heard similar suggestions about budgeting, tracking/recon. Without hard evidence, I believe that most of their budgets hit ineffective excusion. Many overspent for decades.
  • in 2008-2017 childcare costs threatened to /derail/ everything. Somehow, wife and I have managed to /contain/ this fire

Actually 2008-2009 pff situation in NY was a tough adaptation in terms of brbr, expense control, rent,,, On the flip side, the experience built self-confidence.

Q3: besides my skills, what other factors contributed to our current cash flow high ground?

  • grandparents didn’t become a financial burden
  • frugal wife
  • kids didn’t demand too much
  • medical expenses moderate

Q: what can my kids learn from me? Some say that financial skills are more valuable “heritage” than physical inheritance.

Q: in my answers, why are investments, NNIA conspicuously missing?
A: I guess they have played a background/supporting role so far. See the blogposts in cashflow projection. They don’t affect my day-to-day cashflow.

MRT card #

Posted on by tiger40490

— overcharge .. How to manage the increasing risks of overcharge

The SimplyGo claim/communication legwork .. Usually tedious but uneventful, but can be stressful (albeit a low amount), confusing, frustrating.

Fact: A successful tap is indicated on the fare gate LCD display. No change on that screen means unsuccessful tap.

  • #1 Serenity .. I tend to be obsessed with overcharge. Serenity to accept small wastes [$2/M] just like electricity? Yes, though I prefer zqbx without obsession
  • periodic check .. of transaction records.  This might be the only available monitoring. Less than ideal. Legwork, missed mistakes to be accepted with serenity. I feel the (fare) imprecision is widespread, presumably baked-in (or builtin) to maximize peak hour throughput. The imprecision policy leans towards overcharging (the default) rather than permissive undercharging. Such a policy leaves the onus of /vigilance/surveillance to poor commuters.
  • Wallet can have multiple cards. Better disable paywave.
  • if you suspect you missed entry, then you face two alternative risks
  • .. if you go out without tapping [1] you run the risk of over-charge for “missed exit”
  • .. if you go out by tapping, you run the risk of over-charge for “missed entry”
  • ^^ So if time permits, it’s prudent to check before exit, but how? Best at entrance station control

[1] tailgating? Given that so many commuters get overcharged so many times day in day out, the enforcement system probably won’t arrest you for occasional fare evasion.

— to disable paywave.. is non-trivial. There are always some  forgettable consequences, which could come back to haunt us.

  • NTUC cCard blocked for payments, but still good for linkpoints. MRT? Pending
  • DBS dCard can disable paywave, and leave only ATM feature
  • No way to “disable paywave on OC dCard, but still use it at Shaw” 🙁
  • No way to disable paywave on smrt cCard.

— wish list (for an Ideal MRT card)

  1. I don’t want noisy transaction history in bank account. Ideally no transaction .. use cash top-up instead.
  2. .. For Mastercard, fare charges will be accumulated for up to 5 days or after a total of $15 is spent on transit fares, whichever is earlier.
  3. .. For Visa and NETS contactless bank cards, fare charges will be accumulated daily.[1]
  4. not needed for any other usage such as ATM, so no need to take out this card
  5. LG2: easy top-up
  6. easy to replace after expiry

[1] I think this is tricky. The system accumulates fare charges without real-time checking on credit limit, probably for peak-hour latency. When it posts acumulated charges to the bank, it could be denied. In this scenario, the restaurant (SMRT) has served the food and the guest has left, so SMRT has to accept the free meal. In contrast, in a real restaurant, there’s no need for sub-second latency, so each payment is checked against credit limit in real time.

Loss .. TheReality: In our lifetime, which commuter would never lose a MRT card? Probably none. It’s a question of when not if.

  1. to minimize loss: low stored value (debitCard has none :). The probability and amount of loss is actually low, and many simple-lifestyle individuals keep $50+ and treat it as a cash card, but this cash card has no PIN protection and is prime target of theft.
  2. to minimize loss: Have my name on the card. Whoever pick it up is likely to return it to station staff.

Acceptable choice: the old nameless ezlink card, but need to check the expiry date

safe div stock: comparable to corp bonds

Posted on by tiger40490

Background: A few friends are interested in corporate bonds, but am not keen.

I now feel 4% DYOC stocks beat 6% high-yield bonds. Granted the bonds guarantee the payment rate but look at credit quality, reliability and appreciation.

  • if a bond has 6% coupon rate, then credit risk (dependable income) is questionable
  • if a bond is relatively safe with, eg 4% coupon rate, then I would say a 3% DYOC stock would be possibly comparable quality.

In all cases, the stock has chance of appreciation/depreciation.

A 4% CDY aristocrat beats most of the corporate bonds out there.

[21]long trough: Nsdq(17Y), SP500(7Y),gold,,

Posted on by tiger40490

 

Xp: equity mutual funds — about 3 out of 10 funds get stuck for 5Y+
Xp: Majestic Village

Q: how long was the longest trough in the Nasdaq100?
A: 17Y according to https://www.investopedia.com/timeline-of-stock-market-crashes-5217820 and https://www.macrotrends.net/1320/nasdaq-historical-chart. Corresponding trough was 7Y in SP500.

On the basis laid out in big-ticket items pre55, here’s a follow-up question:

Q: if the amount of money is not-neded (i.e. I don’t have a need for the amount sunk in), then Why did I hate long trough in a liquid asset like stocks and gold?

This quesiton underlies my deep-rooted subconscious resistance to long-term commitments such as endowments.

A: I need the sunk-in fund to provide more current disposable income (for better commute, enrichment programs etc), higher brbr buffer, exclub(?), windfall profit(?). I hate to have my fund locked up while giving up these optial but “nice” things

Reality check — most of the time the “not-needed” condition is not 100% satisfied i.e. I do have something of a “need” for the amount. This reminder is very relevant for gold, and also (not for long-trough) HDB home upgrade.

G5 real essentials 2fend off hardship #Khmer

Posted on by tiger40490

See also: livelihood[def2] x-class #S.Liu describes a higher standard of livelihood, closer to the standard of my peers.

Trigger 1: The Mr Money Mustache’s blogposts like the reason he is NOT selling the website highlight the wrong priorities of many high-income individuals… reminds me of My inferiority against the Managing directors, the rat race, the race to top schools and branded colleges…

Trigger 2: As described in burn rate: 80%@median family income: wbank^BT #Khmer, the Khmer villagers lead truly happy lives without high education or healthcare. So that begs the question — just what are “important” (essential and beyond) to these villagers and their happiness?

Q: what are the top 5 “provisions” important to an individual’s livelihood, that constitute my level of bare-bones ffree? The MMM’s ffree is presumably similar, but not MY criteria.
— priority: healthcare
— priority: adequate education for the young — at least 9 years. Ideally provided free for the poor
— priority: retirement — cash flow to last 25Y, to prevent the retiree falling into hardship
Note low inflation is a pre-requisite.
— priority: basic housing — in safe, sustainable environment, free of hazards. Housing is the most elastic item in this list
— All these priorities are taken care of in the case of MMM, ERE author and other early retirees. Are there other financial needs?

recreation? Free recreations require resourcefulness and imagination. You can cycle (most sustainable) to nearby places or take public transport.

In https://www.getrichslowly.org/early-retirement-extreme/ ERE author Jacob said “We consider spending money a failure to solve our problems by smarter means.”

— PAP government .. I think SG government has the right priorities in terms of the most important livelihood provisions for the citizens.
CPF is related to most of the priorities below
— “African Americans must want to be successful” .. In this Jared Kushner comment “success” is undefined but has many overlaps with the priorities in this blogpost.
— life chances .. Most of these priorities below are related to “life-chances”, which is the missing ingredient in most impoverished communities, including inner cities and the Khmer village.