[19]carefully redeem CNH HY # caution!

Motivation — SGD cash crunch due to BGC, maid etc

caution — i could make another loss on this investment. Need to avoid the temptation of ” quick removal of chronic eyesore, even if at a small loss

It’s useful to see the price history of the USD version.

This HY fund is a prime example of “erosive dividend” …

G22 investment milestones{97

These are mostly but not all Minestones. Towards the recent years, the more brief I write, the better .. beware oth

  • 1997 started at FSM. Endowment and Mutual funds like Unifund were considered safe products for beginners.
  • 1997 gambled big with family savings (50k+) and lost 11k. Started recording personal investment experiences for review.
  • 2005 big decision to buy #4-116 (at a lucky location), not for investment/appreciation but (wise) rent-saving
  • 2007-12 (U.S.) suspended all investments => Missed big recovery:( but invested USD 90k in Beijing
  • 2012-14 fxo + Oanda => realized I’m only comfortable with small scale, low frequency trading… dismal ROTI
  • 2012-16 experiments on FSM => disillusioned with EM funds, dividend funds.. Made money mostly in U.S. and single-country.
  • 2012-17 discussions/experiments with insurance. Conclusion — too slow too low. While many seem to use insurance or bonds as bases of a personal portfolio, I shun these products and use properties instead
  • 2013-14 decision to pay down OC mtg asap… same going forward.
  • 2013-14 MyShield
  • 2015 BGC
  • 2016 BridgeRetail
  • 2015-2017 Jill’s private equity
  • 2018 Energy 12 private equity. small but bold experiment
  • 2018 43R … decided to avoid buying 700k home
  • 2018 college funding — decided to avoid the ivy league price tag, largely based on UChicago experience
  • 2019 PeakRetail.. decisive
  • 2019 MyCarePlus

##[17] SGD cashflow]semi-retirement phase #Fuller

Update:

Tanko pointed out $3k/M is sufficient until tested by a cashflow event. He feels real life is more unpredictable, so for many retired couples the uneventful phase may not last long. If you want to weather the storm, you may need a $3M contingency reserve .. something 99% of us don’t have.

This was exactly my attitude expressed in numerous emails until 2018. My attitude (tanko?) was like “even though I have recorded evidence of a 4k family burn rate for the past X years, I still need to prepare 10k/M”in my old age, I still want (not “need”) a salary.


See also https://tanbinvest.dreamhosters.com/2014/12/08/retirement-planning-ideas-le2-tanko/ and other posts in the same blog.

See also passive income generators

When asked by financial planners such as at a Prudential road show, I have estimated that for my wife and me combined, the retirement monthly burn rate is very roughly S$3k in today’s dollars,

  • including regular clinic visits
  • excluding major medical
  • excluding overseas trips
  • excluding rental or mtg expenses, hopefully $0

At s$3k, my wealth (by Fuller’s definition) is rather high. No need to work any more. The EarlyRetirementExtreme author estimated 100Y of wealth for himself.

Looking at my recent burn rate (which I track carefully), 3k is a realistic forecast of our retirement burn rate. I understand my own burn rate very well. This is the part of my financial planning I understand best, which is still rather imperfect.

Living alone in the U.S. I spent below $1k/month excluding rent and flights. When self-employed as a bachelor, I was earning $2k/month and had no cash flow problem at all.

My Zofia and I could move back to MYS/SG when retired. Below are some of the positive/negative cash flows during my semi-retirement years:

^ kids contributing a bit of allowance, if any
^ part time salary —  Note my target retirement age from Full Time job is 75.
^ low risk investment dividend, such as insurance
^^ rental income minus property maintenance cost.
* I would advocate lease spread — rent a cheaper/smaller place and rent out our home.
^^^ CPF Life would start paying at 67 or 70
…. see figures in 3 ffree scenarios: cashflow figures
▼flights to see family
▼Major medical? Rely on medi-shield?
▼other medical expenses not covered by medi-shield. Other insurance can help. It’s naive to assume that medical would be 80% of the burn rate.
▼old age related expenses? Ask grandparents
▼▼ utilities including daily transportation
▼▼ food

Repeated “^” means higher predictability.

If we stay in JB or Thailand and visit Singapore when needed, then the savings/gains would include (look at the tax-like expenses)
+ cheaper food
+ lease spread
+ routine medical is cheaper
+ cheaper utilities including daily transportation

— support grandma? My NNIA is sufficient for CRBR, but not sufficient to support my aging parents. I think this type of “support” is a luxury comparable to branded degree for my kids. There is one difference — my aging parents have their pension income and nest egg.

yield^inflation(burn rate)during your semi-retirement

BusinessTimes 16 Jan 2017 has a detailed analysis about retiring on 3-4% investment yield. (My savings rate is probably 60-70%) This analysis has a basic assumption — investment yield CAN keep up with inflation…. Really?

In the Singapore context I blogged about the 20Y inflation as I experienced. Relatively low.

As to investment yield in the form of dividends or fixed deposit interests… not so sure. In conclusion, I would say — inflation did erode but investment yield didn’t keep up 🙁

Therefore, I like rental property better. Rental income rises against inflation, with good reliability. (In fact, the capital appreciation also rises with inflation, but that’s topic for another day.)

Key thing in this plan — reliable passive income. I’m betting on 5-7%. I think mostly I need to rely on rental properties.

[20] U.S.income: 3segment

In a 2020 CNBC survey, “financial elites” refer to those with $50,000 or more in investments and an annual household income of $75,000 or greater

In a May 2016 commentary in Business Times, Robert J Samuelson pointed out that in terms of annual household income the US “families” can be classified into 3 segments:

  • above 100k: 25% of US Population belongs to households earning above 100k
  • 40k to 100k: 1/3 of US population belongs to households earning within this range
  • below 40k: 40% of US POPULATION belongs to households earning below 40k

These are easy numbers to remember. Note in economic science, there are exact definitions of “household”. I will just call them “families”.

AVERAGE household income is skewed by the wealthy outliers (“average GS bonus” shit). Instead, let’s talk about median household income. As of 2013, US median household income is about $43k pretax.

— typical U.S. household cash flow level, as reflected in the Mar 2020 $2 trillion covid19 rescue package

  • The /bill/ provides one-time payments of up to $1,200 for most individuals and $2,400 for most married couples filing jointly, with an extra $500 for each child. A family of four would receive $3000.
  • /Assistance/ starts to phase out for individuals earning more than $75,000 (ending altogether for those earning more than $99,000) and for couples with more than $150,000 in income,

I’m surprised that a one-time $2k 红包 would mean a lot for many U.S. families.

It then dawned on me that my fellow ibank tech professionals are a wealthy privileged class in this society.