SDXQ or waterfront loc ≅ Orchard mansions #w1r2

For branded college see luxury(+special)Edu: unaffordable to 中产华裔.

The SDXQ or waterfront locations (branded colleges too) always cost a lot though I won’t give a figure. These are exclusive locations, the desires/aspirations of the upper-middle-class. It might be a slight exaggeration to regard these aspirations as the lifestyle of the Orchard mansion owners, Singapore’s upper-class. Clearly I don’t qualify for this exclub !

  • mainstream attitude .. I feel many of my U.S. peers are not much better off than me (despite higher post-tax income) but have the same aspirations as the upper middle class. Therefore, they don’t have my Fuller wealth and carefree ezlife
  • my attitude .. I feel lower middle-class. I feel well-off and Fuller-wealthy precisely because I live within my means and don’t aim at unaffordable luxuries. I still feel I can’t afford the Singapore private properties. Neither can I afford the U.S. waterfront or SDXQ properties.

— waterfront .. I never envied those with private properties in Orchard, Bugis, Marine Parade, Holland Village,,, Why do I envy those living in Newport or NY west side … waterfront luxury locations? Paradox!

( However, Bayonne locations near the big park is actually luxury in terms of well-maintained street.)

— SDXQ homes .. U.S. SDXQ (rated 8 – 10) homes are also comparable to Orchard mansions. However, the middle-class immigrants tend to follow the herd instinct almost blindly, and believe that SDXQ rated 7 or lower is utterly unacceptable.

I had a long-held reservation against private property in Singapore. I feel valuation is driven up by the affluent investors from SEA, China, Hongkong, India, and other countries. Similarly in the U.S. school districts, the middle class push up the valuation.

overpriced property market: homeOwnership,sdxq..

In overpriced markets like Beijing, rental is relatively underpriced and represents a real bargain. However the Chinese doesn’t perceive the bargin in a positive light, due to a deep, long-held preference for ownership, as an essential basis of security, achievement, social status.

I feel it’s an irrational bias, although I could be biased.

How about sdxq homes? Poor bargain in terms of rental demand and commute

How about Ivy League colleges and UChicago? Poor bargain, according to Kyle.

In all of these cases, mainstream preference is NOT an accurate reflection of the correct priority in my situation. It’s crucial to honor my own preference (and wife’s) rather than other people’s preferences.

cashflow LowGround^HighGround [def] #sdxq

See also

I like the visual (albeit loose) concept of “cashflow highground”, similar to “moral high ground “. Physical flow is usually from highground to low ground. Sometimes, I prefer the shorter phrase “PFF highground”.

Each household (single or family) can move between lower ground and higher ground as their life unfolds. Even a country can go through the same, as SG did during covid19.

On a low ground, household outlays exceed income, debts exceed assets, debt servicing is a major recurring expense, or salary income stability is in doubt. Some households sink lower and lower, apparently unable to escape. Common among the immigrants and non-white, non-Chinese Americans. In a contrast, JackZ (Raymond to a lesser extent) lost his job and then hit the pandemic, but thanks to his savings and low burn rate, he probably didn’t sink further.

In a down turn such as the widespread job loss during covid19, you don’t want to find yourself on the lower grounds as they are more at risk of “overrun”.

Remember the WhyFactor production on scarcity? On the lower ground, people struggle to cope. On the higher ground, you can enjoy, relax and live in relative peace and comfort, but lifestyle creep can erode the high ground.

Therefore, on the high ground I feel a need to build up my defense, strengthen my foundation, and raise my ground even higher. So What type of insurance would protect my high ground? Not endowment, not life insurance. Here is my insurance plan:

! Even a middle-lower income household can achieve cash flow high ground, by reducing burn rate (and lifestyle creep), debt,, and build up a reserve and nonwork income stream. I feel Raymond has not done enough on the income side.

— How is BRBR related? Big ticket infrequent outlays are less visible in BRBR, but more clearly felt in high/low ground.

  • Personal prognosis — If I were to take on a USD 700k school-district house, I would slide into lower ground, partly due to high interest and pTaxes.
  • UChicago MSFM — did I slide into lower ground? I would yes slightly due to the high burn rate like 20k/Y.

— How about Fuller wealth?
Fuller wealth as a barometer is one of the best indcators of high/low ground.

— Disaster insurance — such as TPD, major medical and eldershield.
These are rare events so hopefully successful claim rate is low and premium is low. Such low-cost insurance plans help strengthen the foundation of my high ground.

Recall the tallboy vs K3 story?
— How about lifestyle creep? I would venture to say if your income is below 300k/Y, a key difference between high ground and low ground is the attitude/habits on lifestyle creep.

The creeps don’t make a huge difference numerically (because they are small spends) but the attitude does make a huge difference. You have to be conscious of where you spend. You need to review your paste decisions critically.

luxury(+special) Edu: unaffordable to 中产华裔

opening eg: In the U.S. context, medical school is for the upper class, as Tao.Chen of RTS told me.

In the U.S. branded college is comparable to top MBA schools or Joseph Schooling’s expensive training.

Similarly, top schools (in all countries), top colleges, private tuition, enrichment programs… can be considered as luxuries that lower middle class (like me) can’t afford easily.

I would have to struggle, sacrifice, endure a lot to afford them…

My barebones ffree is insufficient for this level of luxury. Before college phase, I think luxury education could be 70% of the annual family burn rate. This luxury alone can derail my carefree life.

Similar experience — the prospect of a 700k home (with pTax + mortgage) became a threat to my cashflow carefree /position/, until I devised the lease-spread idea/plan.

XR and YH have kids attending special-needs schools. My son is smart, but to protect him from bad influences, I may need to consider expensive school districts or charter schools. These choices can increase my burn rate by 40%. However, there’s a risk —

Some of the additional spending on education may have /unimpressive/ ROI, and waste my limited resources. This would be similar to SG government spending past reserve on the wrong covid19 rescue areas — wasting limited reserve.

Therefore, before I commit to spending the money, I need to weigh the cost and benefits.

  • top school districts cost me hugely in commute, pTaxes etc
  • private schools have high fees but may not help my son grow better

 

##risks@bad(or top)学区]US

Note this is about school DISTRICT.

Jack He said outside NYC, most schools won’t be bad schools, but I do worry about bad schools. See also

–if we pick an average school district, most Asian immigrant “peers” would question me and point out the risks:

  • risk: academic benchmark performance. Extra tuition could help.
  • risk: bad influence, defined in https://1330152open.wordpress.com/2017/07/19/u-s-schools-whats-bad-influence/. Private school could reduce this risk.
  • risk: my kids puts in less effort than in a top school DISTRICT. Private school could help.
  • risk: fellow parents don’t care so much about academic benchmark. At middle/elem level, low academic ranking mostly reflects PE. See non-Chinese学区: all parents are caring

— if we pick a top school district

  • risk: my kids may fall to the bottom of the class.
  • risk: we may realize it’s too competitive

time saved{commute ^ SDXQ: unconvincing ROI

Shaving 10 min off my morning commute means a lot to me than to my colleagues.

All my colleagues hate long commute but for majority (80%) of them their personal commute is tolerable in the grand scheme of things. That’s why they choose to make concession/sacrifice on this dimension, to trade for something personally more important, such as School District. When I question them on the tangible value of SD, I feel their answer is unconvincing, even though my view puts me in the minority.

I was also questioned “what do you accomplish with those 10 minutes saved from commute?” I list many items but none accumulates to a tangible and otherwise-impossible achievement, something I can point at and say “that’s what I accomplished using those 10 minutes” —

  • MSFM degree
  • progress on specific investment research.
    • without this 10min/day I am unlikely to get the required concentration. All the following items are personal hobbies on the margin.. relatively low priority. Marginal value of 10 minutes.
  • yoga classes
  • specific coding questions
  • specific blog posts

See also time saved{commute as felt@early mornings

These answers are debatable and subject to interpretation, … Ultimately, the value of 10 min saved is personal — 99% positive feeling + 1% some measurable ROI. Personally, I feel my lifestyle is significantly enhanced by those 10 minutes saved. Likewise, I presume the value of a slightly better SD (rating 8 vs 7) is often nothing but positive feeling.

Except gym classes, there are rather few things you can do now that’s Certain to produce tangible ROI. The uncertainty is such a universal and fundamental factor that most of those perceived and proclaimed benefits sound subjective, unconvincing wishful thinking.

In fact, SD and commute benefits are still more measurable than things like

  • value of living close to a beach like east coast park
  • value of living at shopping district compared to the quiet Juliette St

chat with Paul Meduna, believer@SDXQ

See the post on value of top school district. Throughout the analysis, I try to separate the academic benchmark element from the conducive environment, because these are two separate benefits we pay for.

It takes a brave parent to recognize the limitations in a widely held conventional wisdom. The Europeans used to believe gravitational acceleration is proportional to mass.

Actually I’m not a super smart, super brave parent. I’m just a parent with limited budget, so I can’t afford to follow the convention wisdom among the richer friends and colleagues. But too much peer pressure. If I were to buy a home in an average school district, just about every concerned friend would question my decision.
[‎7/‎20/‎2017 10:27 AM] Tan, Victor:
I’m a careful risk taker. I once asked myself what’s “bad influence” to me. I believe it’s more about conducive/positive learning environment than academic benchmarks. If an average school is free of bad influence, it would be OK for my kids, even though the academic rating could be average

[‎7/‎20/‎2017 10:29 AM] Tan, Victor:
Long story — my sister and I went to 2 middle schools of very different academic standards. Mine is top 1%, hers above average. She basically didn’t get into college, but did she “suffer in a bad school”? Absolutely not. Her school was just fine and just not competitive academically.

[‎7/‎20/‎2017 10:33 AM] Meduna, Paul:
Each person has different standards.

[‎7/‎20/‎2017 10:39 AM] Tan, Victor:
agreed. I don’t like to see my kids’ academic performance dropping below average (since they are not low intelligence). So I want conducive environment + serious effort by 1) we parents + 2) my kids + 3) teachers on their grades. If that results in below-average benchmark performance, I would have to accept, even though I know jolly well (from my sister’s experience) that moving to a more competitive school might boost grades. It would be a short-term sacrifice I make for my kids. I would rely on my conviction as a once-top-student that they can catch up later academically. I have seen it many times, including in my sister.

SDXQ: teacher/pupil ratio in Queens #JackHe

Jack He grew up in Queens and moved to Long Island. He was sure that the ratio is inferior in the 5 NYC boroughs. I told him that some students like me didn’t need a lot of guidance from teacher, but my son may do.

On a second note, Jack also felt there are more student programs in the outskirt schools than the 5 boroughs. Some school districts emphasize music. Some emphasize sports.

top学区≈made-in-Germany

  • Actually, not every product made in Germany is better than those made in other countries. Conversely, products made in other countries can be better.
  • There are good and bad manufacturers (“schools/classes”) in that country. Some are second-class.
    • In a top school districts, some schools are just average
    • In a top school, some students are not happy, engaged, motivated or growing.
  • Not everything in your life need to be top quality or made in Germany. Remember all “top” schools are rated top based on nothing but academic benchmark. If a child is not academically inclined, then the academic emphasis, academic workload, academic standard in an academic school may not be suitable for her.
  • /Discerning/ consumers don’t go by where-made. We are capable of more independent judgment and research.

2well-known benefits@buy`SDXQ #le2YJL

Hi JunLi,

Thanks for sharing your two points about the benefits of buying a top school district home. Two points are easy to remember!

A) If I own a home in a top school district, my kids will go to those good schools rated 8-10.

B) The home I buy is likely to appreciate over the period until we graduate from high school. Easily sell at a profit.

I’d like to put on the critical thinker’s hat.

For (B), actually many non-school-district homes appreciate faster. It depends on your horizon. Over 5Y, I think some school district homes don’t appreciate a lot; whereas some non-school-district property appreciation can be faster. Over a 10Y horizon, I agree a school district home is very likely to appreciate. I see very stable demand from many, many parents not only immigrants [1] and Asians.

How many years do I want to live in such a school district? Until my kids graduate from high school? Well, that may be too long for my liking…

[1] Immigrants are unfamiliar with the education system so naturally many of us go for the best-known top schools. Safety in well-known brands. On average, local parents tend to be more confident and are willing to accept “lesser-known brands” like schools rated 7 and below.

For (A), I agree it’s better if my kids can go to a top-rated school. The rating and ranking is 100% academic benchmark-based (as illustrated in my previous mail) and it does correlate with quality of the learning environment.

Overall, I feel A) is more certain than B). In other words, higher probability of realizing the benefit.

However these two benefits come at a price.

  1. One of them is longer commute. It eats into family time and time for rest.
  2. Another drawback is bigger financial commitment. I would have to cope with 600k [500k ~ 800k range] rather than a 250~400k price tag in a non-school district. It ties up more of my free cash. It entails higher pTax and mortgage monthly burden. With my single income, I can afford up to 500k only, so 600k is burdensome, and truthfully “beyond my means”.
    • Probably the pricier home is bigger or better, but I don’t need such a big home actually. It’s luxury I can hardly afford.
  3. Most such locations require more driving than my favorite locations — walkable communities with kids and old folks on the street. I may get used to more driving.

Since the two benefits come at a hefty price, I need to re-evaluate the benefits. For (A), I explained to a few friends that what I care about is conducive learning environment and esp. engagement of the young mind. I believe many 6 or 7 rated schools provide that. So the value of (A) is lower for me.

Academic benchmark is not my target and I deliberately play down its value, in defiance to mainstream Chinese/Indian conventional wisdom. In a top school, my kids are likely to perform better on standardized tests, but not necessarily happier or get more “engagement”. I have heard of isolated, anecdotal incidents of kids switching from average schools to top schools and suffer. They drop to the lower half of the class. They study under overload, and have less time for extra-curriculum programs which could otherwise engage their mind — what if one program is their true interest?

I urge all parents to take a critical look at academic benchmark performance. A friend pointed out that at middle school level, parents have more influence than the school. If my son is able to score 80/100 in a top school but only 70/100 in an average school, then we parents could perhaps push him to 80/100 even without the top school.

As you and many friends pointed out, ultimately, focus should NOT be academic benchmark or branded university. Focus should be the individual child, as a different individual from other children. The best learning environment for “majority of children” could be different from the best environment for my daughter. Specifically, for my kids, a particular 5/10 school may be a better environment than an academically driven top school. For example, the high school in south Edison, NJ is rated 5/10 but I believe it has lots of Chinese and Indian students and probably has good peer influence.

I try to be objective and incisive. I don’t want to unfairly play down the two benefits or exaggerate the drawbacks. I hope today I have done a fine job.

No doubt I have strong opinions. Unavoidable! These are important questions and have direct impacts on my children’s future and my family life. To join the same “rat race” as my fellow immigrants, and pay the hefty prices of a top school district … could be a burdensome decision.

Lastly, it’s prudent to rent in whatever school district for a while before buying.