Q: suppose over four years you spent USD 250k on a top college for your son but a year after graduating, he is doing fine in a bank or a tech shop, but not a top performer among a cohort of fresh grads across comparable employers. Would you regret spending the 250k?

You get to know , let’s suppose, that some of the kids in the same batch graduated from lesser-known (U.S. top 100 or Asia) colleges but very “hungry” and no less talented technically or inter-personally than your son.

You get to know that these kids are luckier with their bosses and their projects.

You probably accept that “luck” is fairly random and doesn’t favor the top college grads.

You probably accept a graduate’s motivation is not correlated with the school fees spent.

You probably accept many talented students go to less-known colleges, possibly due to scholarships, or closer to home, or the national rating of their chosen major — a lesser known college may be highly rated in some niche domain.

You may argue that those other kids must be cream of the crop in those lesser-known colleges. Well, we don’t know. Academically, they could be the top 10% in their college, or merely top 30%, but they sure did well in job interviews. So it’s actually not that hard for a second-tier college grad to get into this same firm or a competitor firm.

You may argue that as a parent you did the best for your son including the 250k funding, so no regrets. Well, the parent (who happens to be your schoolmate) of one of those kids also did her best saving 250k for something worthwhile, like a property investment, or starting a business, or taking a lower-paying job to spend more time with her daughter. So you can’t say your schoolmate didn’t provide the best for her daughter.

You may argue that given whatever wealth in your family, the best wealth preservation is education, the best education there is in the market. If we look at (imprecisely defined) quality of education, I don’t think the branded colleges offer a quality well above the rest. Right now, your son is at essentially the same level with those other grads without a prestigious degree, and you may be able to project 5 years out. Is there any wealth preserved in this top-college education, beside a badge of honor like “I went to Harvard”?

So was it really rational to have committed 250k some 5 yeas ago when a few reputable 2nd-tier colleges promised to offer more affordable quality education? I assume you are not someone who doesn’t need to care about a 250k small amount.

I have met many fresh or recent grads while working in Goldman, Citigroup, Merrill (U.S. and Singapore), Barclays, Macquarie, NYSE, Morgan, … Some graduated from top colleges. I also studied among some 50 young classmates in my UChicago graduate program. I can see the overall individual competence level is  uncorrelated with the colleges’ prestige. The most talented young guys are often Indians, from unknown colleges. So I’m 100% convinced that top colleges don’t have any monopoly on talent.

In my profession (and possibly many professions) , a new grad’s success depends on motivation, talent and opportunity, among other things. None of these three factors has any correlation with the prestige of the college. It’s not a shame your son doesn’t really outshine those grads of second/third tier colleges. It’s fair competition on a level play ground. Every grad gets an equal chance to compete on their talents and drive.