Tag: t_vague

[20]ffree^FOMO #9K/M #Gary/Yin

Posted on by tiger40490

See also my blogpost on

After talking to Gary.Guo, I realized that I could be ffree but not free from peerComp pain — when I notice so-called “peers” earning a lot higher, and their families enjoying those things I used to dismiss as unnecessary… I would feel FOMO/FOLB i.e. left behind in the slow track. I think Henry.Yin also said that RMB 500k salary felt too low for an unmarried tech worker. I would hear similar sentiments if I talk to more people.

On one hand, minimum acceptable food[1] cost is dropping globally, and I have way more than enough income to survive. On the other hand I feel lousy seeing some so-called “peers” earning 20 times more than that minimum, and twice my salary. Each of them seems to complain about cost of living.

[1] see globalization reducing minimum cost@acceptableFood

FOMO … The tendency to feel envious, and the tendency to compare to our neighbors are … basic human tendencies. Even a child would experience that. However, it takes a rational mind (wisdom) to control the tendency. Other people’s envy is the damper of my bare-bones ffree.

If we don’t compare to the (wrong) peer group we CAN actually feel pretty comfortable and carefree, basking in a glowing self-esteem.

So why do we choose to engage in the unnecessary comparison? In this question, I’m confronting the paradox of my adulthood. In pursuit of a more rational perception, I have a chance to find and restore some balance in my world view. I feel Theordore Rubin’s books shed some light. He introduced some good descriptors.

This is a confusing, subtle topic, with multiple layers. One of the analytical techniques is a list of questions.

Q: How much monthly (passive) income is enough ? Note Annual income is not very granular.
A: Philip Che said $5k would be comfortable for a family of 4. Wife said 4-5k for my family of 4, as discussed in SG: bare-bones ffree=realistic #WBank^wife^Che^3k

In the Chinese middle class family burn rate the single biggest poisonous element is top schools. Top schools entail humongous housing cost [1] + college funding. This single element has the (destructive) power to transform a carefree life into a stressful, miserable life.

Q: What did grandpa say when I said my son would go to an average American school while other immigrant Chinese families mostly live in top school districts?

Q: What would the early-retirement-extreme author say?

[1] actually you may be able to rent in a top school district.

— Q: With my low burn rate of, say, 3-5k, what if my wife earns 3k and I earn 6k from work like the Teo family? In theory my carefree easy life would be sustainable but would I really find Peace?

Main street tech jobs pay about SGD 5k.

A: I think most people in that situation would probably feel below-average in salary, and unsatisfied. Those without kids or not yet over the peak would feel /wasted/ at that salary.

With 9k salary, some exclusive “clubs” would reject my family members.

— See also the blogpost on khmer villagers and similar cultures in SEA, Latin America, and some Buddhist cultures — more satisfied, less striving.

SG condo price level #Susan.Lee

Posted on by tiger40490

Hi Susan,

Just to share my “biases” against the widespread and deep-rooted investor confidence in SG private properties.

Many realtors believe that over long term (10Y+ is my horizon), Singapore property prices will continue climbing. I am not sure.

Hongkong may or may not be a valid reference, but that’s the only comparable location. The supply/demand profile is different in each region and in each era:

  • Chinese tier-one property markets (Shanghai, Beijing, and possibly Shenzhen) have evolved under its own political, economic, demographic environment, so I don’t feel Chinese cities are reliable references.
  • Europe, Australia, North American, Japanese cities are also unreliable references if you ask me, because I am convinced that the (mainland and overseas) Chinese mentality — preference for buying over renting.. betting on windfall appreciation and ignoring rental income..– is one of the biggest demand-side factor that can’t be overstated.
  • Europe, North America, Australia, and Japan have a much longer history of prosperity

Over the last 30 years, the Chinese property investors have not seen a real bust as in Japan. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Property/Tokyo-property-prices-near-bubble-era-levels shows a 30-year property market recovery that’s still incomplete.

I would imagine that because of this positive collective memory, Chinese investors can’t intuitively assess “over-valuation” and “bubble”. This is such an important point in my reasoning that I will attempt to give a few analogs:

  • Until I saw, as a pupil, a magnet pushing another magnet without touching, I couldn’t imagine such a phenomenon. This is a natural science example. Rest are social science examples.
  • For centuries, people can’t imagine any country’s population could shrink permanently so we couldn’t imagine such a shrink. Now we are seeing it in some developed countries. Permanent? Let’s watch.
  • U.S. investors have watched the U.S. stock market recovering from every collapse very swiftly, without fail, so U.S. investors can’t imagine a prolonged “trough” like the ones in Japan, Europe and China.
  • Singapore property price history is similar to U.S. stock prices — over the last 30 years it has always rebounded after every correction, so the market watchers can’t imagine a Japanese-style long trough.

I’m slightly different from other Chinese investors —
1. I feel I don’t need a huge windfall profit — most realtors talk about 500k+ realized profits.
2. I value current rental income more than windfall appreciation
3. I wish to diversify geographically, like spreading over China, U.S., SEA

“Slightly” is my honest self-assessment. I’m 60% same as other Chinese investors in terms of my drivers — greed, fear, analysis, observations, information source, the people I listen to…

I really want to be more independent, marching to the beat of my own drum, but I can’t really tell myself to shut out the outside influence. I need a selective filter … tough balance.

[13] ideas@retirement planning

Posted on by tiger40490

Let’s not spend a lot of time on this blog post, but Look how much my retirement plan has improved

  1. * annuity — cpf-life
  2. * rental properties
  3. * medishield

—- 2013 email —-
Disclaimer — I’m not seriously retirement-planning. Just random thoughts. The [1][2].. items are my retirement ideas.

I feel many people rely on their home as retirement, but you can’t easily get cash out of the house. So it doesn’t really generate cash needed in retirement. It’s rather important to ensure the home can be rented out to generate supplementary income [1].The better the location, the more likely. It would be idea if you can get a 2nd, perhaps small home to rent out.

Another common thing people do is full time investing (gambling). I’m not sure at all. I’d rather leave my money with the professional fund managers. I’m more in favour of high-dividend investments.

If I have the time and good health, and needs money, I’m more in favour of working into old age[2]. Some professions are easier to find work – such as hourly work. Teaching is one field to offer work into old age.

Medical insurance [3] is quite important, esp. for catastrophic, or chronic.

Annuity [4] is a relevant option to me.

USD^SGD heuristics

Posted on by tiger40490

These aren’t reliable or even backed by sufficient statistics. Market doesn’t obey any rule.

Looks like long term USDSGD will weaken but short term could strengthen.

  • I do believe that if SEA regional currencies are very weak, then SGD appreciation (USD/SGD decline) would be limited.
  • SG government financial fundamentals much stronger than US government, but this doesn’t stop USDSGD from rising
  • Growing US government debt weakens USD, in the long term.
  • MAS is still confident about SG economy long term… maintains gradual appreciation of SGD against trading partners.
  • Long term confidence — global investors have more confidence in US economic growth than Singapore economical growth. US economic growth (and booming stocks) strengthens USD against all other currencies
  • US tech boom — seems to drive “new economy” and strengthens USD
  • talent competition — US still attracts global talents more than other countries, and therefore remains global leader in innovation.
  • The 2015 strength of USD is attributed to
    • stronger US economy relative to Eu/Jap
    • impending Fed rate hike
    • devaluation by China
    • weak SG economy, possibly a technical recession

[15] convictions, informally defined

Posted on by tiger40490

When everyone is greedy, be fearful; when everyone is fearful be greedy.

If something is a conviction I am willing to invest at least 5k in it.

Best example — BGC uptown property.
Example — the Allianz HY fund.
Example — Jill’s property offers. I invested 10k x 3

In many of the above examples, I often prefer smaller lots because I don’t have deep conviction. In reality, these investments had minimum commitment, so I was forced to commit large sums, Uncomfortable.

Side note — Some other big gambles I made:
* going to US
* sending my wife and baby boy back to Singapore
* quitting my full time IT job to go solo

Here are my current convictions:

  • USDSGD to rise. Should go long 10k – 20k, but could easily lose sleep.

Looks like I have no conviction about equity investment.

Brazil? Dare not invest more than 2k
Turkey? Dare not invest more than 2k
Ph?
Taiwan?
healthcare?
energy?