Malaysian同龄人in his40s: realistic PFF

I find this 2013 description on [[Personal Money]] rather detailed and realistic, offering multiple revelations and lessons for me. The subject is Mr Lim who wrote in to the columnist Gina Wong , to have his financial health [goals, projections, gaps] assessed in her column [[Money Makeover]].

  • 1) MYR 866k investment assets (29% in REITs, 26% in other stocks, 38% in fixed income funds, 7% cash or MM assets), generating a 8% return — questionable, unsustianable due to high equity allocation
  • 2) MYR 80k emergency fund
  • 3) MYR 500k “personal assets” .. vague.. presumably an estimate of his other assets .. perhaps home equity, 401k
  • 4) minus MYR230k total liabilities .. any debt beyond mortgage would be a worrying sign.
  • ^^^^ MYR 1216k Net asset, adding up the 4 line items
  • MYR 95,295/Y (almost 8k/M) family burn rate, on a MYR 230k income, at age 41. The author (Gina) thinks this burn rate is thrifty and uncomfortable. However, I guess many working class Malaysian families as of 2013 probably spend much less.
  • MYR 60k/Y squirreled away at age 41 = “approximately 25% of his income”, perhaps including  endowment bx.
  • ^^^^ 230k-95k-60k = 75k/Y earned but not spent not saved, so I guess it consists of payroll deductions [tax, 401k, donations, medbx, discounted company stocks,,] This large discrepancy is easily missed by most readers, who would get walk away with a misleading estimate of his brbr or savings rate
  • MYR 120k/Y target NNIA from age 55 through retirement. 60k/Y CRBR + 60k/Y to be reinvested to fight inflation
  • .. I find this NNIA ambitious/challenging if he wants to rely on stocks. Reits and bond funds are slightly less unreliable.
  • —- Lim’s other financial goals are a LG2 focus of this blogpost:
  • MYR 3300k age 55 target balance. Rather ambitious.
  • MYR 1200k  target college fund to help his 2 kids
  • No mention of his inherited wealth or his wife’s contribution.

Q: which portions of his snapshots are oversized/undersized?
* rEstate (conspicuously missing) : undersized
* 401k (conspicuously missing) : undersized
* debt: oversized.. should be close to zero at 41
* nest egg: oversized
* target NNIA by 55: ambitiously oversized

Q: is he on cash flow high ground or low ground? The author says high, notwithstanding insufficient insurance
Q: Brbr? 230k/96k = 2.4 very good
Q: is he a big saver, big spender?
A: author is 100% sure Lim is a “frugal family man” who , 5 years ago, started living “below his means”.
A: At the end of the review, author recommended Lim “upgrade family lifestyle” … relevant to me
%%A: not a big spender, but neither a big saver. I assume Malaysia cost is lower than Singapore, so MYR 8k/M family burn rate is too high

Q: how is his Earn/Save/Invest capabilities? Remember Lim is serious about retiring at 55.
%%A: aggressive investor

Q: Fuller wealth?
%%A: can be better. Lim’s current burn rate (8k/M) and Crbr (5k/M) are rather high

 

%%riskTolerance: which countries feel OK #LIR

This blogpost is a helicopter-level comparative

— Cambodia

  • 🙂 currency .. a hazard growing with holding period
  • 🙂 small quantum. Debt-free.
  • 🙂 availability of commercial property with GRR .. unheard of elsewhere.
  • 👎 country risk
  • geo-concentration risk? Actualy lower exposure than a single property in U.S., Aus, China or Sg

— US rEstate

  • 🙂 currency
  • 🙂 NRY after deducting legal costs, agency fees, maintenance etc
  • Quantum? With local knowledge, I can find mid-quantum like USD 300k

SgCP

  • 🙂 currency
  • 🙂 legwork, familiar system
  • 🙂 reasonable NRY
  • 👎 quantum

— Not comfortable with Philippines .. 👎 currency 👎 country risk
— not comfortable with China .. 👎 extremely high quantum 👎 very low NRY
— not comfortable with Aus/UK .. 👎 quantum
👎 tx costs [taxes, legal fees]
👎 currency .. see separate section

^^^^ end of country list ^^^^
— Q: How about one more country/region for diversification? Presumably, I’m more geo-diversified than 95% of my peers at the same income (not wealth) level. This is directly due to the small quantums of my overseas assets, so I can avoid cross-border expensive mortgages.
BGC is a diversification from my biggest “egg baskets” 1) SG 2) U.S. 3) China, 4) Cambodia. So I don’t necessarily need Aus or UK assets as diversification.

Note U.S. is a huge “egg basket” because I rely on it for essential livelihood reasons over the long horizon. I also have about half my assets denominated in USD. USD depends on U.S. economy. I have a vested interest in the economy of U.S.

— currency hazard, assuming no mortgage.
Even if you hit a realized profit in AUD, when you convert it back to SGD, the end-to-end PnL may be negative!

( That’s why my sister suggests we buy stuff from Ph given our rental income is in PHP. )

Am I confident about my long-term (barebones) ffree? See le2Sister. Think deep and hard…. If yes, then there’s no justification to take on a sizeable but unfamiliar risk (like ccy) until I become comfortable with it, perhaps through an experimental trial.

— taking mortgage in the asset’s currency:
Cross-currency LIR [loan IR] hazard is worse than currency hazard alone.
Cross-currency LIR [loan IR] hazard is worse than leverage-alone.

Too complex to discuss. In fact, I am not knowledgeable enough.

Anthony.Lin rentalProp hearsay story #divStock

 


Around 2011, I met my PWM ex-colleague A.Lin in Midtown a few times. He told me he had about 5 rental properties in Brooklyn [6]. What I remember he said is now mixed with what I imagine he said…

  • I think he said he bought fixer-upper[1] properties and “worked my butt off”[2] to make them usable again — FHR improvement.
  • I think he said his parents ( in-law? ) helped in some big way, perhaps renovation or rental mgmt[3].
  • I estimated that his[4] gross[5] rental income could be 10k/M but he didn’t confirm.
  • I have no clue about his mtg and haircut [pTax, maintenance, vacancy]

This is one of my biggest moments of FOLB on my path as an investor. He became one of the role models at the back of my mind. However, as I told HF.Sun, we outsiders don’t know some of the key facts of each deal, and should not assume its value.

[1] Risk: judgment risk. In this game, High return seems to entail high judgment risk.

[2] sacrifice. No pain no gain? But such sacrifice may not be worthwhile. I feel my HDB rental yield of 4% is not so high, but my effort is much lower. My Blk 177 realized rental yield was above 6%.

[3] Risk: legal risk, as Edward experienced.

[4] the rental income, the asset ownership ,,, is not 100% his. In contrast, I did all of my rEstate investment single-handedly, without family help.

[5] Q: what is his GRY and NRY assuming no mortgage on any property. I tend to assume GRY close to 10%. NRY is around half, up to 5%.

[6] Risk: concentration risk. Brooklyn is where he lived and knows well. In comparison, my overseas rental properties are more risky and higher costs.

— enviable ptf? How about div stock ptf?

Q: which portfolio is more enviable — AA) $1.5M cash deployed in 4~7 rental units with 50% loan + 7% NRY + leg work, BB) $700k in div stocks, no loan no legwork, 7% DYOC, diversified over 70+ stocks
A: most people would envy AA

Q: which one is more risky? AA due to legwork, delinquent tenant, LIR

Shiller: live more like millionaires #Sgp economy

On [[irrational exuberance]] P139 Shiller gave an illustration — Suppose most owners of some rising stocks are becoming multi millionaires on paper, but their current living standard is anything but. At some point, some owner would want to sell her shares to start living a little more like a multimillionaire. It’s only rational — we buy-n-hold investment assets not for the sake of holding, but to improve our existence on earth.

(On a related note, Rong.Zhu said, You don’t want to pass on with too much unspent money, but somehow I don’t worry about that… )

  • For my wife, “living like …” means better home — newer, higher floor, even if it means lower investment return.
  • For Deepak CM, “living like ..” means seeking then living the better life as immigrants. Perhaps it also means “spend freely without calculating, without economizing.”
  • For (half not all) my NY cohort, “living like ..” means Ivy league and school-district home (usually big sqft). In this sense, they are not forced to sacrifice for it. Instead, they willingly sacrifice other things for this important priority.
  • For me, the answer is in
    1. my answer to sis: G3 specific goals@investment effort
    2. best Spends@100k windfall

— Assuming Shiller’s stock keeps rising …
Q2: would you prefer AA) to grow your paper net worth by holding the appreciating stock, or BB) (cash-out) sacrifice that growth for a better current life (… Life is short)?
Note that AA satisfies the FOMO, exclub desire.

Market risk is a huge risk we have hitherto ignored, also the (arguably) biggest difference between a millionaire vs paper millionaire. Without market risk, this stock would present an arbitrage.

— Q1: what if Singtel stocks make most Singapore citizens paper millionaires (or half-millionaires)? Singaporean’s average wealth level would leapfrog to top of the league table. So what?
( Q1b: what if Nokia stock makes most Finnish citizens paper millionaires? )

A: In such a case I think Singapore rEstate would appreciate further, making our lives somewhat poorer just like in Hongkong. If Singaporeans must reside and consume/spend [2] only in Singapore and if without foreign labor[1], then they would find that many services become expensive although imported goods would remain affordable. That would be drive force for more automation, more self-service, but many retirees really prefer human service.

[1] In reality, Singapore relies heavily on foreign construction workers, foreign maids, service sector foreign workers (from SEAsia + China) to control labor cost. See SG reliance@low-wage foreign workers: maintain cost+competitive
[2] In reality, Singaporeans really like to spend their wealth overseas.

RSP 2% # compare2curves@yahoo

  • 1.5-2% CDY, better than SP500
  • https://www.marketwatch.com/story/long-term-investors-can-beat-the-sp-500-by-favoring-equal-weighted-etfs-2018-09-26
  • https://einvestingforbeginners.com/equal-weight-sp-500-etf-ansh/ (one person’s view) suggests the RSP is no worse than SPY , partly thanks to DYOC.
  • yahoo finance chart shows RSP beating SP500 even without dividend factored in ! I think this happens only over longer term.
  • .. After 20 experiments, I think the comparison chart lets us drag to select an arbitrary starting date. On that date the two curves start at the same 100% level, and start to drift apart. The chart then shows something like “RSP is currently 93% of starting level, whereas SP500 is 92% of starting level”
  • .. Is there a more reliable data source than Yahoo finance?
  • I think many of my passive investments [401k, AIA, TRBCX] already track the sp500, so I would prefer to diversify to an EWI fund.

— minor factors

  • momentum .. with equal-weight ETFs, there is “kind of an anti-momentum dynamic that is present because every quarter you’re kind of cutting back what has risen a lot and adding to what has lagged,” he added. “The trouble with market-cap-weighted [indices] longer term is you ride the momentum up. But there is no mechanism to kick those stocks out again. So, you ride them down.” That is why standard indexes may outperform equal-weight ETFs in the short run
  • historical (and future) performance .. I guess in a bull run lead by a few large stocks, EWI would underperform, as in the last few years.
  • concentration risk .. is better with the more diversified EWI. See https://www.investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/08/market-equal-weight.asp . I think about 1/5 value of SP500 are the top 5 tech stocks which are badly correlated. Some investors embrace concentration on 5 tech superstars, because they don’t like holding laggards, but historically, the EWI has not really underperformed the highly concentrated SP500
  • volatility .. might be worse with the highly concentrated sp500, esp. during a sector crash. On the other hand, small-caps tend to be more volatile

DBS seminar: CPI-inflation

Most reputable authors from U.S., China (and other countries) present CPI inflation risk as one of the most serious risks for retirees. SG CPI trec is much much better. (However, my friend TJ.Lin disagrees…)

Even U.S. CPI inflation is not so bad in the short term. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/gold-as-an-inflation-hedge-history-suggests-otherwise.html says that The Federal Reserve tries to keep CPI inflation around 2% per year.

— The DBS seminar
On 30 Jan 2021 After the presentation, I confronted the presenter “Your 3% inflation over-estimate (DBS official estimate) seems to discourage people from saving and encourage people to spend more”. I still believe it. The presenter (Adeline?) replied “We are encouraging people to save and invest.” Ok the difference is saving-n-investing vs saving.

Look at the average people without enough Earn/Save/Invest capabilities. If the average people believes inflation is well-controlled for the long term, to average 1%, then they would be motivated to save more. If they are led to believe inflation is fluctuating beyond control, and higher than they feel comfortable, then they would feel discouraged from saving.

The presenter’s answer seemed to imply “The ordinary Singaporean retiree will need a huge retirement nest egg, but even if you save like hell your savings will be decimated by inflation, so the ONLY solution is investment in growth assets.” I disagree on multiple fronts.

Key issue 1: 3% compound inflation rate is an overestimate in the Singapore context. I discussed in numerous blogposts. She used a refrigerator for illustration — $1000 fridge today will cost $2000+ in 25Y. Well, I would predict there will be smaller fridges mass-produced in cheaper locations, costing far less. This globalization effect (discussed in this blog) is visible in clothing, electronics, toys, bicycle etc.  Instead of fancy merchandise, retirees need reliable, durable or low-cost designs. Retire-in-style is lifestyle creep, not necessary or admirable.

Key issue 2: the proposed nest egg size (around 1M, identical to Pauline’s) is too large for most people. It is not mandatory and it’s too hard to achieve, so most people would get by with less to spend, and it will be fine, not unacceptable.

Issue 3: CPF-life is a bedrock that DBS tends to downplay as insufficient due to inflation. All annuities have limitations, but I am convinced that CPF-life is the most reliable insurer with probably the highest payout rate.

Now if you ask ordinary folks to save like hell and invest large amounts, they would have no confidence, because all the investments “fast enough to beat inflation” are risky. That’s propaganda. I think even 2% compound return can beat the inflation I experienced. Therefore, if you lower the target return to 2%, then there are many safe-n-easy investments such as CPF and money-market funds.

So for most ordinary folks with up to 200k long-term risk capital[1], I agree with DBS that mufu is easier, but not really safer[2]. (Personally I would prefer stock-picking for 20k.) Mufu can cover equities and bonds. Obviously DBS wants to promote mufu since DBS makes money mostly from mufu and endowments.

[1] There is likely some other cash piles, but they could be earmarked for education, housing etc or they get depleted.
[2] equity mufu is subject to the same market risks as stock-picking. Liquidity is inferior due to management fee and longer trough.

 

 

infatuated_investors: rise/fall {buy

With recreational stock investing, impulsive trading is usually the precise phrase. [1] Sometimes, I feel “infatuation” describes a different perspective.

I have a mild (not extreme) but uncontrolled tendency to become infatuated with some products

  • eg blue-chip stocks with BUY recommendation .. If it’s a billion-dollar brand name, with a trec, I tend to brush aside the negative analysis.
  • xp (earliest): during my Tritech industrial attachment, I fell in love with some mutual funds and biked all the way to west coast to buy some mutual funds
  • xp: Between Year 3 and Year 4 in NUS, commodity trading cost me $11k due to infatuation
  • xp Allianz high yield fund — once took up SGD 100k of my fund. I didn’t make a loss but the return was much lower than initially perceived
  • xp Saxo FX option trading — I took on too many positions
  • xp (biggest) Cambodia GRR rental properties.

It’s easy to get carried away and underestimate the risks, the long wait, the severe liquidity limitation.

— 4 nights after pre-clear.. Most of my trading tend to happen on the first night … more stressful and less efficient than spread-out. Is it rational or should I change?

  • factor: better price on first night .. in about half the cases, first night has better (some would say no-worse) price than subsequent nights. See the “Rise” scenario.
  • factor: I usually set my own quota. In many cases first night I have used up most of it. This habit can be adjusted.
  • .. sugg: set a smaller quota in the beginning.

— Scenario: I spend many minutes selecting stocks, then due diligence on each including a desirable incremental amount, then pre-clear, then set aside nightly hours, but in the end only invest $10 to $20 over 4 nights 🙁

I feel the most common reason is the “rise” scenario.
Another common reason is implementing the desired increment, esp. when I had a pre-existing position, and I use “too many” fractionals.. hard to keep track of the running total.

— Scenario: I often find a stock with positive rating + CDY + stable div history. The more pre-trade effort invested, the more pressure I feel not to waste the effort. I end up tweaking my order and trying to get a fill.

Therefore, the Kun.H style of deep analysis is dangerous for me, esp. when I want to buy dozens of names within a month.

I tend to enter a limit price somewhere low, and wait for hours to get a fill 🙁 My new Suggestion .. fractional buy to release the tension. Also reduces the tcost of manual handling (different from babysitting an existing position)

— Scenario: After buying, the stock rises 🙂 ……. I had sometimes given in to the urge to top-up at the now higher price, partly due to the pre-trade tcost (a sunk cost).  This is an example of infactuation, but more infatuation than impulsive. See [1] above. In hindsight, I think it’s usually better to stand aside. Quite likely the price would fall, and buying that same quantity would be better at the lower price.

Jolt: stand-aside habit interferes with my plan to increase U.S. eq allocation.

Realistic example: I had set out to invest “up to $100 or 2 shares” but have bought only $1 before price went up. The initial tiny purchase tends to but should not dictate what I can/can’t do now. If you feel justified to top-up, then buy fractional please.

— Scenario: After buying, the stock falls 🙁 ……. Paradoxically, i often rub my hands in glee, because “I can have more fun buying!” Still, it’s prudent to use fractional buys to release the emotional build-up.

ROTI — tend to become an issue. Beware!

PayNow and QR how2 #scan-n-pay

PayNowQR is one of many payment modes in the PayNow ecosystem across banks. See https://www.abs.org.sg/consumer-banking/pay-now. (In BOC mobank, PayNowQR leads to PayNowUEN.) Beside PayNowQR, there are also PayNowToNRIC/PayNowToMobileNum, PayNowUEN etc.  I think those systems can use computer.

  • Each person can designate one bank account to receive PayNowToNRIC (BOC)
  • Each person can designate one bank account to receive PayNowToMobileNum (#104)
  • ^^ Many people choose the same bank account.

QR scanner is a smartphone feature (as far as I know). The procedure is lengthy.

  1. first get the QR code if it is not already on a hardcopy.
    • to do so, you may need to log in on the payee’s (billing organization) system.
    • Sometimes the QR code is generated based on your input and will last only a short while
  2. Now you are ready to scan the QR code. Take out your phone
  3. For many banks, don’t use the Scan-n-pay feature. Instead, log in on the banking phone app.
  4. For DBS, bottom menu -> pay-n-transfer -> scan-n-pay, not PayNow. It still ues payNow behind the scene.
  5. some PayNowQR includes the amount, but you should verify it.
  6. Note you may require up to 10 OTPs and many signings on the hardware token. I think this is a penalty for users of hardware token.

— choose between PayNowQR, PayNowUEN, FAST,,,

  • If QR is available but not recipient account number, then PayNowQR is the only choice
  • For recurring payments, I prefer online banking bill-pay. I can save my unique account number (required in each transfer) in the billing organization
  • For recurring immediate payments, I prefer FAST or save UEN as a registered payee. Still need to enter reference number for each transfer.
  • .. FAST is usable on computer or phone
  • .. UEN is usable on computer or payNow… no real advantage though many people are blind.
  • For safer one-time payment, I prefer QR.  In some payment system like SNEC, the payment reference number (unique to your purchase) is error prone. Fat finger would lead to payment to other people’s account.

— for individuals, PayNowToMobileNum will show payee name (Jason.Fu confirmed). Need token to add new payee.

3episodes@ non-recreational trading

[d=non-positive DYOC while holding]
[c=commission, or bid-ask spread was high in terms of percentage of investment amount not notional]
[m=margin account requires daily check, like a crying baby…]
[q=profit too quick and possibly unreal or unsustainable]
[t=time is NOT on my side]

Q1: how many months/years could I possibly hold a position?

— #1) [cdmqt] 1997 commodities for a few months
A1: months
— #2) [cdmqt] Saxo FXO for more than a year
A1: months, up to a year
— [dt] Oanda for a few months since late 2014
More recreational than earlier episodes.

Securities: mostly USD/SGD, but also a bit of gold and oil futures.
A1: 1Y+ for gold, oil. For USD/SGD, perhaps months

— #3) [q] Robinhood
Thank god the pre-clearance helps keep it more recreational.

A1: 1Y+, hopefully longer, as bulk of my assets have positive DYOC, allowing me to buy-n-forget.

==== txCost, NRY: 2 underrated advantages .. provide a significant margin of safety. When other investors experience losses or liquidity issues, I am often spared. Most people underestimate these advantages. Instead they focus on the overrated DRIP.

With commission costs and zero-div stocks, the entry-price/timing decision is more risky, more error-prone, more intimidating, less fun. I often become paralyzed by the due diligence. The dividend payout is a huge psychological and economic cushion against NAV drop or regrettable entry-price.

Similarly, rEstate investment without rental yield is more risky.

— small transaction costs (one-time or periodic) do add up .. Some investors (like Kun.H) seem to dismiss these costs esp. commissions, in their pursuit of 中长线 strategic trends. In contrast, My MOETF “system” and HFT systems rely heavily on the commission advantage. Some HFTs even earn a rebate from exchange for providing liquidity.

Upfront commission and expense ratio are the two best-known transaction costs. Other small transaction costs:

  • FX exchange costs
  • fund transfer costs between institutions.
  • taxes

BeiJ: roam`retirement city

Q: disadvantages? This bpost will not list them.

Millions of outsiders view Singapore as an unsuitable retirement destination like “my last choice”.

Pattern: once a retiree gets used to a place, and develop coping solutions, most of the disadvantages (of the place) are accepted with serenity. I see it in my parents, in the retirees of NY, or Boston (cold),,,

#1 remedy for (many) disadvantages of any place — get used to living there.

— Beijing has certain advantages.

  • advt: healthcare? better than ruralChn
  • advt: familiar city, cf Malaysia, U.S.,,  In fact, Beijing is the #2 most familiar cities to me. I feel I belong there.
  • advt: Tianjin/Zhejiang relatives
  • advt: good infrastructure in many aspects, more reliable than cheaper countries. See separate bpost on ChM
  • advt: no car dependency. Extensive public transport.
  • advt: customer service helpline .. much faster than U.S.  (too much menu, long queue,,,,) Singapore helplines are often understaffed.
  • advt for wife: No need to cook everyday. More varieties than Malaysia.
  • advt for wife: Language
  • advt for wife: far more comfortable than Malaysia or U.S.
  • advt: trusted friends [classmates]. In contrast,  need to make new friends if in Malaysia
  • advt: airport: travel time to Sgp [my harbor] is better than ruralChn
  • advt: CPI cheaper than Sg. My money can buy me a more comfortable/easier lifestyle
  • advt: close to the travel destinations that interest me